The UCLA Bruins are trying to turn around a tough first season in the Big Ten, notching back-to-back wins, but No. 3 will be tough.
The Bruins are nearly touchdown underdogs tonight when the Iowa Hawkeyes fly west for a Friday night matchup in California. And this ain’t your older brother's Hawkeyes team, having won three of their last four while scoring 40 points or more.
My Iowa vs. UCLA predictions say it’s that the defense we know and love that’ll shine in this one, and I’ve found a player prop to highlight my college football picks for this Big Ten battle.
Kickoff is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, with the game airing on FOX.
Who will win Iowa vs UCLA?
Iowa. The Hawkeyes are the more complete team from top to bottom. Iowa’s defense will suffocate the one-dimensional UCLA offense while the Bruins defense won’t have an answer for the suddenly score-happy Hawkeyes offense led by running back Kaleb Johnson.
Johnson has burst onto the scene for the Hawkeyes and not only does he look like the best running back in the country not named Ashton Jeanty, he has totaled 1,279 yards at a clip of 7.5 yards per carry. UCLA ranks 111th in the country in success rate vs. the rush, so good luck slowing him down. He'll be the key to the Hawkeyes win on tonight.
Iowa vs UCLA prediction
My best bet
Ethan Garbers Under 225.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It was a rough start to the season for the UCLA Bruins, but they did manage to snap their five-game losing streak by winning back-to-back matchups against Rutgers and Nebraska.
Unfortunately for Bruins fans, I expect a regression to the mean for the home team on Friday night. Wins aside, the Bruins' offense is a mess, and they’ll now have to deal with a tough Iowa Hawkeyes defense.
UCLA enters this Big Ten matchup ranked 111th in offensive success rate and 123rd in opponent yards per game. The Bruins are also getting nothing out of the running game at the moment, and being one-dimensional against the Hawkeyes is never a good thing.
That means quarterback Ethan Garbers has had to step up and, well, he only kind of has thus far. The senior signal-caller has had some nice games this season but has been incredibly inconsistent and has struggled against good defensive teams.
Overall, Garber has thrown for 1,703 yards at just 7.8 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions. But when you look at matchups against Indiana, Oregon, and Nebraska, Garbers averaged just 158 yards per game with two touchdowns and three picks.
Now, he’ll face a very good Iowa pass defense. The Hawkeyes enter this game as winners of three of their last four, and while the offense gets a lot of the press (because it’s shocking the Hawkeyes can score points these days), the defense continues to do its thing as they’ve held their opponents to 16 points or fewer in each of those three wins.
Iowa enters this game ranked 12th in opponent EPA per dropback and 40th in defensive success rate on dropbacks. The Hawkeyes allow just 203.4 passing yards per game, and Garbers has a passing yards prop sitting at 225.5.
Iowa has allowed just one opposing quarterback to go Over that number in six conference games so far this season. I’m betting Garbers won’t be the second.
Iowa vs UCLA same-game parlay (SGP)
UCLA team total Under 17.5
Iowa -6.5
Jacob Gill anytime TD
Ethan Garbers’ passing yards Under isn't an eligible prop for an SGP, so let’s just extrapolate that a bit and go with UCLA to go Under its team total.
In Iowa’s four Big Ten wins this season, they have held their opponents to 16 points or fewer. UCLA scored just 17 points or fewer in six straight games prior to this two-game winning streak.
Next, let’s take the Hawkeyes against the spread. I don’t believe that the Bruins have suddenly figured it out with wins over Nebraska and Rutgers. UCLA ranks 111th in offensive success rate and 118th in defensive success rate, going against an Iowa team that has one of the best defenses in the Big Ten.
And while UCLA is bad at defending the run, it may be even worse against the pass, ranking 119th in success rate vs. dropbacks. Brandon Sullivan gets another start for the Hawkeyes at quarterback and his favorite target looks to be Jacob Gill.
Gill is Iowa’s second-leading receiver (not that that’s saying much) with 21 catches for 198 yards and two scores, including last week against Wisconsin. Let’s take him to find the end zone again in this one.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa vs UCLA odds
Iowa vs UCLA live odds
Iowa vs UCLA opening odds
- Iowa vs. UCLA spread: UCLA +5.5
- Iowa vs. UCLA moneyline: Iowa -205, UCLA +170
- Iowa vs. UCLA Over/Under: 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Iowa vs UCLA spread and Over/Under analysis
- UCLA opened this Big Ten matchup as 5.5-point home underdogs, but that hasn't been enough for the Bruins to see the action as the line has moved in favor of Iowa and now sits at 6.5.
- Despite the tough season, UCLA has exceeded oddsmakers expectations, covering the spread in five of their last six games.
- The total hit the board at 45.5 and has been bet down slightly, sitting at 44.5 as of Friday morning.
- Iowa's unexpected leap on offense has resulted in the the Hawkeyes being one of the best Over teams in the country this season, going 8-1 O/U.
- According to our Covers Consensus tool, 64% of users are picking the Hawkeyes to cover the spread while 63% of users expect the game to go Over 45.5 points.
Iowa vs UCLA betting trend to know
UCLA has only hit the 1H Moneyline in four of its last 12 games for -9.40 Units and a -46% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa vs UCLA.
Iowa vs UCLA game info
| Location: | Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 11-8-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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