Iowa vs Wisconsin Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Smashmouth Football

Nothing says college football like an Iowa Hawkeyes game with a total in the 30s. That’s exactly what we’ll get when Iowa heads to Madison to take on the Wisconsin Badgers in a Big Ten West showdown.

While the winner of this matchup will have a leg up in the division race (even if that means just being cannon fodder for whoever comes out on top in the East), scoring points certainly won’t be easy with a total sitting at 35.5.

Despite both teams entering this game with similar records, the Hawkeyes are nearly double-digit underdogs. Is that too many points to be giving the road team with a total this low, or is the Hawkeye’s offense just that bad?

I break down the college football odds and bring you a best bet in my college football picks and predictions for Iowa vs. Wisconsin on October 15. 

Iowa vs Wisconsin best odds

Iowa vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

Saturday’s game between Iowa and Wisconsin could be a matchup of the best the Big Ten West has to offer. Unfortunately, that’s not saying much this season.

Luke Fickell’s tenure in Madison has gotten off to an inconsistent start. The Badgers enter this game at 4-1 straight up but are just 1-3-1 against the spread. While Fickell has brought in a new system, this still looks like the old Badgers, reliant upon running the football.

Transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai doesn’t look like the same guy he was at SMU. He’s passing for just over 200 yards per game and has just three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Speaking of disappointing quarterbacks, Cade McNamara coming over from Michigan was supposed to be the answer to Iowa’s long-standing offensive woes. But like the Badgers, these look like the same old Hawkeyes with a great defense and the idea that scoring is optional in football.

McNamara proved ineffective to the point where Iowa made a switch to Deacon Hill. Despite leading the Hawkeyes to back-to-back wins over Michigan State and Purdue, he went just 17-for-48 passing in those games for 225 total yards with two touchdowns and two picks.

Now, with quarterback play that poor it’s not surprising both teams run the ball more than 53% of the time. 

Throw in the fact Iowa and Wisconsin rank seventh and 31st respectively in opponent yards per play vs. FBS opponents and each allows less than four yards per carry and the rock-bottom total makes sense.

That said, I find the spread in this one to be interesting. The rule of thumb is with an extremely low total, you take a hard look at a big underdog. With so little scoring expected, there is almost no room for error for the favorite to cover the chalk, and that’s what I think happens here.

This is just too many points to be giving the Hawkeyes in this spot. Despite Wisconsin having the better quarterback and offensive numbers in this matchup, Iowa comes in with the better resume. 

The toughest team the Badgers have played was Washington State and they got beat by nine points as 5.5-point road favorites. In Big Ten play, they faced a really bad Purdue team and just last week failed to cover the 13-point chalk at home vs. Rutgers.

I just don’t have any confidence in Wisconsin to cover this number in what I’m expecting to be yet another slobber knocker of an Iowa football game. Slow, grinding, and where the punters may be the most important players on the field. I’ll take the points with the Hawkeyes.

My best bet: Iowa +9.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Iowa vs Wisconsin same-game parlay

Iowa +9.5

Under 35.5

Deacon Under 125.5 passing yards

Mordecai Under 174.5 passing yards

+629 at FanDuel

Our same-game parlay as always leads off with my best bet, which is of course Iowa +9.5. I very badly want to add the Under here as well. 

These two teams have played Under this number in three straight meetings dating back to 2020. The forecast in Madison at kickoff looks cold and windy and maybe even a little rain. So, these two could rely even more on the run game. Screw it. Under it is. 

That also has me thinking both quarterbacks will fall under their passing yard total in this one. Deacon Hill hasn’t topped 115 yards in his last two starts and now faces a Wisconsin defense that ranks 19th in passing yards per attempt vs. FBS opponents this season. While Tanner Mordecai hasn’t topped 174 yards in Big Ten play and takes on an Iowa defense that ranks second nationally in the same category. 

So add Deacon Under 125.5 passing yards and Mordecai Under 174.5 passing yards as well. If these four legs hit, we cash a +629 payday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Iowa vs Wisconsin spread and Over/Under analysis

The line for this Big Ten West showdown hit the board with Wisconsin as a 9.5-point home favorite and it briefly hit an even 10. Congrats if you got that number Iowa bettors, but the line has returned to the opening number and some 9s have even started to pop up on the board. Go get the 9.5 while you can, Covers Consensus has 63% of bettors on the Hawkeyes so the number could keep dropping as kickoff approaches. That said, I still like Iowa down to 7.5.

Obviously, the total is the fun topic here. It opened at 37.5 but was quickly bet down to 35.5. But that may not be the end of the movement as 34.5s have started to appear as of Friday afternoon. This matchup has seen 35, 34, and 34 total points scored in the last three seasons. I think that 35.5 number is key, if you can still grab it, I would lean Under. Not that I would bet the Over in this matchup, but it’s getting low enough to make you pause.

Iowa vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

Iowa has hit the Game Total Under in five of its last six road games for +3.9 units. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa vs Wisconsin.

Iowa vs Wisconsin game info

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