No Power Four conference is as wide open as the Big 12, which makes Kansas State’s matchup against Deion Sanders’ Colorado program all the more important.
In our Kansas State vs. Colorado predictions, we’re expecting the Wildcats to take advantage of the holes on the Buffaloes roster. Read more in our college football picks for Saturday, October 12.
Kansas State vs Colorado predictions
Early spread lean
Kansas State -5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Coming into the season, the Kansas State Wildcats were viewed as Utah’s only competition to win the conference, and the Colorado Buffaloes were seen as a team that would be fighting for bowl eligibility.
However, a loss to BYU derailed the Wildcats’ buzz, and the Buffaloes keep pulling off surprising victories, but this matchup is a totally different animal for Sanders’ team.
Kansas State is coming off its most impressive win of the season — 42-20 over Oklahoma State — and true sophomore QB Avery Johnson appears to have found his groove. With Johnson’s passing ability seemingly catching up to his talent as a runner, Kansas State’s offense is much more potent.
It ranks 14th in SP+ and Johnson, DJ Giddens, and Dylan Edwards have the Wildcats rushing for the seventh-most yards per game (252.2). Johnson’s also coming off a career-best game as a passer with 259 yards, three touchdown passes, two big-time throws, and an ADOT of 9.7 against the Cowboys, per PFF.
And for as much as Colorado’s defense has improved this season, it’s still just 74th in SP+ and allowing the fourth-most yards per game in the Big 12 (379.6). The Buffaloes' most impressive win, 48-21 over UCF, doesn’t even look that good now, with the Knights losing by two scores to Florida in Week 6.
Kansas State’s defense should make an even bigger difference in this matchup. It’s 27th in SP+ and completely shutting down run games this season. It’s allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (91.8), and Colorado already has issues on the ground.
I think the combination of Colorado overachieving on top of Travis Hunter being a legitimate Heisman Trophy odds contender and Shedeur Sanders living up to his billing as a potential first-round pick has this spread a little wonky.
Either that or BYU isn’t getting enough respect from sportsbooks, so K-State’s being punished more than it should be for that loss. The public loves Colorado, so this spread could drop another point when, in reality, the Wildcats should be favored by at least 6.5 points.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 56.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Colorado has hit the Over in both its Big 12 games this season and should again against Kansas State.
The Buffaloes have proven their passing attack is good for putting up points and keeping the clock from being churned down. With the frequency that Colorado successfully throws and its defensive deficiencies, it makes them a perfect team to bet the Over with, especially when playing a competent offense.
Sanders is third in the country in big-time throws (3) and is the only QB with 12+ big-time throws, fewer than four turnover-worthy plays (2), and an adjusted completion rate of over 79%.
Between the way he’s playing and Colorado having one of the best quartets of receivers in the country, the Buffaloes should be able to put up at least 24 points.
Johnson and the Wildcats’ run game can do the rest. Giddens is ninth in the country in rushing yards after contact (419) and 15+ yard runs (10), while Johnson is 12th in missed tackles forced (15) and 10+ yard runs (17) among QBs.
That will come in handy against a Colorado defense that’s missed 43 tackles in five games and is allowing 26.6 points per game in Power Four games. Those three Power Four games came against UCF, Baylor, and Nebraska — all of which rank far below Kansas State in SP+ on offense.
I think Colorado’s defense is being overrated because it’s improved so much from last season, but even with the improvements, it’s one of the worst in the Big 12, which is why I’m surprised this total is lower than 58.5.
I’d expect it to climb up by a point or two through the week, with Colorado’s offense attracting so much attention from the public.
Kansas State vs Colorado live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
