Despite losses to Ohio State and Oregon this season, Penn State got a favorable path to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. But can James Franklin finally win a big game?
And while the Nittany Lions are 8.5-point home favorites for their first-round matchup, they better not overlook the SMU Mustangs.
The Ponies believe they can pull off the upset, but do my SMU vs. Penn State predictions agree?
Check out my college football picks for this first-round CFP matchup which kicks off on Saturday, Dec. 21 at noon ET in Happy Valley.
SMU vs Penn State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 54.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The SMU Mustangs almost did the unthinkable by winning a conference championship during its first season in a Power Four conference.
The Ponies came back from being down 31-14 in the fourth quarter of the ACC Championship Game against the Clemson Tigers to tie the game, only to watch Clemson boot a 56-yard field goal as time expired.
But the performance was good enough to secure a spot in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff and these Playoff Ponies are heading to Happy Valley with an upset in mind.
SMU got off to a bit of a slow start this season, which included a loss to BYU back in Week 2. But then Rhett Lashley made the decision to make Kevin Jennings the full-time starting quarterback and they never looked back winning nine games in a row going 7-2 ATS before falling to Clemson in the ACC title game.
Meanwhile, it was the same old story for James Franklin and the Penn State Nittany Lions. They just can’t win the big game.
This season included a 20-13 loss to Ohio State at home that was not as close as the final score and while the Nittany Lions fought hard in the Big Ten title game, they still came up short, losing 45-37 to Oregon.
Despite giving up those points, I’m still a believer in this Penn State defense led by a potential Top 10 pick in next April’s NFL Draft, Abdul Carter.
The Nittany Lions enter this game ranked 10th in opponent EPA per play and 19th in defensive success rate and their No. 1 goal in this game will be shutting down Jennings.
The SMU signal-caller is at his best when he is extending plays but if Carter and Co. can keep him in the pocket this Nittany Lions should be able to keep everything underneath. While Jenning threw for 304 yards in the ACC Championship it was at just 6.1 yards per attempt.
And while running back Brashard Smith can be dangerous, SMU ranks just 73rd in success rate on rushing plays.
On the other side, this Ponies defense isn’t being talked about enough. SMU ranks 11th in opponent EPA/play and 12th in defensive success rate.
Drew Allar can answer a lot of critiques with a big performance here, but don’t be surprised if the Nittany Lions lean on backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. If there is a weakness in this SMU defense it’s against the rush where it ranks 26th in success rate and 39th in EPA/rush.
All this has me believing that the total is going in the wrong direction in this one and we are the beneficiaries of an overreaction to both conference title games. Give me the Under.
SMU vs Penn State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 54.5
Drew Allar anytime TD
Drew Allar Over 18.5 rush yards
Even though James Franklin and Penn State have a history of not showing up in big games, in this matchup I believe we’re going to see something from Drew Allar in this one.
Allar has come a long way as a passer this season, completing nearly 70% of his passes for 2,894 yards and only throwing seven interceptions and has already confirmed that he will be returning to Happy Valley for his senior season.
That caused backup Beau Pribula to enter the transfer portal. Now, you might think, “Who cares? He’s just the backup.” But Penn State used him in some goal-to-go situations and he scored four touchdowns this season, including twice in his last four games. He also ended up carrying the call 38 times for 242 yards.
But with the improvements in Allar’s passing, you might overlook the fact that he’s a pretty good athlete as well. Allar rushed for 279 yards and six scores this season, including finding the end zone in each of his last three games.
Let’s add Allar to score an anytime touchdown in the CFP first-round matchup and take the Over on his 18.5 rushing yards, a number that he’s eclipsed in seven games this season and five of his last eight overall.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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SMU vs Penn State odds
SMU vs Penn State live odds
SMU vs Penn State opening odds
- SMU vs. Penn State spread: Penn State -8.5
- SMU vs. Penn State moneyline: SMU +260, Penn State -320
- SMU vs. Penn State Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
SMU vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Penn State opened up as -8.5-point favorites, but the spread is growing with some -9's starting to pop up.
- The total opened up at 52.5 but has since been bet up to 54.5 where is sits currently. .
SMU vs Penn State betting trend to know
SMU has hit the Game Total Under in four of its last six road games for +1.80 Units and a 27% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for SMU vs Penn State.
SMU vs Penn State game info
| Location: | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-21-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, MAX |
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