Kansas State vs TCU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Miller Hits Paydirt for Frogs

The TCU Horned Frogs have played three straight games against ranked opposition, and won all three of them. Now, they look to make it four in a row when they host the Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday evening in a prime-time showdown that could eventually decide the winner of the Big 12.

A win would push the Horned Frogs to 7-0 on the season and give them the tiebreaker over nearly every contender in the conference. However, Kansas State would control its own destiny in the conference with a win over the first of three straight ranked teams it faces. 

Let’s break down the matchup and the best betting angles in our Kansas State vs TCU college football picks and predictions for Saturday, October 22. 

Kansas State vs TCU best odds

Kansas State vs TCU picks and predictions

TCU is having one of its best seasons ever. It’s not just the fact that it's gone unbeaten through the first half of the season, but having won three straight games against ranked opponents without a week off is more than impressive.

It’s helped that two of the three games have been at home, but the Horned Frogs needed two overtimes to maintain their perfect run last weekend in a 43-40 win over Oklahoma State. The Cowboys led 30-16 heading into the fourth quarter, but TCU scored two touchdowns in the final 10 minutes to force overtime. 

The first of those touchdowns was scored by running back Kendre Miller, who came through again in overtime with what would turn out to be the game-winning score. Miller has been a force for the Horned Frogs this season, and after a bit of a slow start he’s really come on as the competition has gotten tougher. 

Through TCU’s three-game stretch against ranked foes, the junior running back has seen an increased workload each time out. He’s rushed for 328 yards on 53 carries in that span, and has found the endzone five times. Last week saw him run for 104 yards on 22 carries, the third time he’s topped 100 yards this season. He’s also found the end zone on the ground in all six games this season, with eight rushing touchdowns on the campaign.

Quarterback Max Duggan has also been outstanding this season for the Horned Frogs, throwing just one interception in 167 pass attempts with nearly 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s hurting teams on the ground as well, averaging better than six yards a carry with 261 yards and four touchdowns.

Kansas State will have its hands full with Duggan and the TCU passing attack, which ranks 30th in the nation in yards per pass and 17th in completion percentage. Kansas State will have to pick its poison in this game if it wants to end TCU’s unbeaten season. 

Even then, it might not matter. Oklahoma was able to put up 330 yards passing and 220 yards rushing on the Wildcats’ defense, and TCU’s offense is multi-faceted enough to do the same. The Horned Frogs are gaining 6.6 yards per carry, the most in the country, and they’re rushing for nearly 240 yards per game.

Kansas State will likely have to focus so much on Duggan’s dual-threat ability that it will open up some rushing lanes for Miller to exploit.  Take Miller to find the endzone on the ground yet again at some point in this game, as he continues to show that he’s not going to be stopped once he gets near the goal line. I’m typically not a big fan of laying juice beyond -125, but I’d recommend playing this wager up to -150. 

My best bet: Kendre Miller over 0.5 rushing touchdowns (-135 at DraftKings)

Kansas State vs TCU spread analysis

Kansas State will be thankful to have had a week off to prepare for this game. The first of three ranked contests in a row, the Wildcats will hope their offense awakens from the slumber it endured in their 10-9 win over Iowa State. They needed a field goal in the fourth quarter to survive after going nearly 50 minutes without a point, as they converted on just four of 13 third-down attempts.

TCU has had no such issues. The Horned Frogs rank fourth in scoring per game and third in yards per play, and they’re taking good care of the football. While they have no bye week to look forward to, having taken it in Week 3, they haven’t shown a ton of signs of fatigue despite the tough schedule. 

This game will likely come down to which quarterback stays true to form. In addition to Duggan’s outstanding season, Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez is having a stellar season as well. He’s yet to throw a pick in 138 attempts, and he’s rushed for nine touchdowns already.

The college football odds shifted from TCU -5.0 to -3.5 early in the week. That’s probably because Kansas State has gone 5-1-1 against the spread in its last seven games, and has covered in six of the last seven meetings with TCU. The Wildcats have also beaten TCU outright in each of the last three matchups. In addition, the underdog has covered in five of the last seven meetings. 

Kansas State vs TCU Over/Under analysis

The Total opened at 59.0 but quickly dropped throughout the week, settling at 54.0 on Wednesday. The Under has hit in four of Kansas State’s last five games on the road, and its offensive struggles before the bye week may have played a role in that drop. Just two of its games this season have seen more than 52 points scored, with three failing to reach even 35 total points. Kansas State has held just one of their Big XII opponents to less than 28 points — and that was an Iowa State team that’s averaged just 16 points through four conference games.

TCU has been involved in plenty of shootouts this season. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every game, and have yet to have a game go under 50 total points. In fact, just one of their last five games has seen fewer than 70 points — and that was the Kansas game, which missed that mark by a single point. They’ve allowed better than 24 points in each of their last four games as well. The Over is 4-1 in their last five games, but the Under has hit in their last six against Kansas State.

Kansas State vs TCU betting trend to know

Kansas State has covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings with TCU. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas State vs. TCU.

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