Kansas State vs Texas Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Wildcats Creative Play-Calling Benefits Howard's Rushing Prop

It’s going to be a unique Big 12 quarterback battle on Saturday, and the college football odds reflect that as the Kansas State Wildcats travel to Austin to face the Texas Longhorns.

The Wildcats have been using a pair of quarterbacks the past three games, and it’s led to three straight victories. That’s moved Kansas State into a five-way tie atop the Big XII standings. 

Meanwhile, the Longhorns will be without starting quarterback Quinn Ewers and will hope Maalik Murphy can repeat his performance from a week ago. They easily dispatched BYU thanks to their defense holding the Cougars to just six points, but Murphy’s going to need to step up his game on Saturday.

Our college football picks and predictions for Kansas State vs. Texas key on one quarterback in particular, and why his running ability is getting overlooked a bit by the bookies.

Kansas State vs Texas best odds

Kansas State vs Texas picks and predictions

When it comes to Kansas State's two-quarterback system, Will Howard is considered the “passing” quarterback. After throwing for 250 yards or more in each of the first four games, he’s topped 150 yards passing in three of the last four as he’s split duties with Avery Johnson, mainly because of turnover issues.

Howard is a senior, but he wasn’t the starter last year when Texas handed Kansas State a seven-point defeat at home. He would take over for Adrian Martinez a week later when he was injured against Baylor, and Howard ultimately led the team to three straight wins to close out the regular season before they upset TCU in the Big 12 title game.

But in Howard’s first two seasons in Manhattan, he was on the field against Texas. In 2021, he used his legs to rack up 81 yards and a touchdown. The year before, Howard played Texas in a 69-31 thumping. While he didn’t have the best day through the air, throwing two picks, he ran 18 times for 79 yards.

While Texas has a strong defense, it’s been had for rushing yards from opposing quarterbacks at times this season.

Oklahoma's Dillon Gabriel had a field day against the Longhorns this season, throwing for 285 yards and rushing for 113 on 14 carries, including a 44-yard scamper. Kansas QB Jason Bean rushed for 42 yards on seven carries, while Alabama's Jalen Milroe gained 44 yards on 15 carries — and that’s despite losing 31 yards on sacks.

Kansas State’s offensive line is also one of the best in the nation. It ranks ninth in havoc allowed and plays a big role in why the Wildcats rank 12th in yards per carry and fourth with 225.7 rushing yards per game.

Howard stands 6-foot-5 and weighs 242 pounds, and when he runs, he’s looking to bowl over defenders. He’s already broken off six runs of 15 or more yards this season. His offensive line has also allowed just 10 sacks this season, which limits the chance for negative yardage plays.

With Kansas State's designed quarterback runs and creative play-calling in the run game, there’s a high probability Wilson finds some space and breaks one. That’ll be all it takes for his rushing total to go Over. 

My best bet: Will Howard Over 23.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Kansas State vs Texas same-game parlay

Will Howard Over 23.5 rushing yards (-114)

DJ Giddens 50+ rushing yards (-158)

Texas team total Under 27.5 points (-128)

50% boost available

+376 +564 at FanDuel

Our same-game parlay takes place at FanDuel, as they’re the only book offering our best bet.

We’re going to back Wildcats running back DJ Giddens to get to the 50-yard mark on the ground. Through his first eight games this season, Giddens has failed to reach that mark just once.

On the defensive side of the ball, we’re also backing Kansas State to hold Texas to less than four touchdowns. The Wildcats defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown over the past two games, and only three of their eight opponents have reached 28 points. Texas scored just 31 last week, and I expect Maalik Murphy to show his inexperience against a much tougher foe.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kansas State vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

The Longhorns are favored by 4.5 points at home, with the line moving multiple points since opening at -7 on Sunday. 

Texas gas covered just four times this season, while Kansas State is an impressive 6-2 against the spread. The Wildcats' defense is outstanding, leading the Big 12 in scoring defense and ranked 24th in yards allowed per pass.

More importantly, teams are converting at the eighth-lowest rate in college football on third down against the Wildcats. That’s bad news for a Texas offense that ranks 54th in that metric and struggles to convert inside the 20 compared to most teams in the nation.

Murphy will be making just his second start, and the redshirt freshman is going to have his hands full. Kansas State has a rushing attack that can not only shorten the game but wear down the Texas defense over the course of the contest. 

At 49.5 points, the total has also moved multiple points since opening. It was offered at 52.5 on Sunday, but the public jumped on the Under. Given the fact that the Under is 6-2 this season for Texas, that makes sense, especially with Ewers out.

The total will come down to Kansas State’s 12th-ranked red zone offense versus the sixth-ranked red zone defense of Texas. The Longhorns rank 96th offensively inside the 20, so their defense must step up to compensate. I’m leaning Under here, but would stay away unless it goes back up above 51 points.

Kansas State vs Texas betting trend to know

The Under is 5-2 in Texas’ last seven games at home. Find more college football betting trends for Kansas State vs Texas.

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