Kansas vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bears Simply Don't Lose to Jayhawks

Kansas dropped out of the AP Top 25 following a 52-42 defeat at Oklahoma last week. Now the 5-2 Jayhawks stay on the road to face the 3-3 Baylor Bears, who are battling through a two-game losing streak of their own.

Without quarterback Jalon Daniels in the lineup, Kansas still put up 265 passing yards and 165 yards on the ground, but the defense surrendered a whopping 701 yards to Oklahoma.

Baylor’s most recent loss was a close, 43-40 defeat at West Virginia that was decided on a field goal with 33 seconds remaining in regulation.

Which team can turn it around and get back in the win column in Week 8? Below are our best free college football picks and predictions for Kansas vs. Baylor.

Kansas vs Baylor best odds

Kansas vs Baylor picks and predictions

The Jayhawks rank second to last in yards allowed (439.4) in the Big 12 and will go up against a Baylor offense that averages 461.8 yards per game.

Even worse for Kansas, the Bears boast the third-best defense in the conference (350.0 yards surrendered) and permit 116.8 rushing yards per contest, the third-fewest in the Big 12.

In their most recent loss to West Virginia, however, the Bears gave up 500 yards to the Mountaineers, including 217 on the ground. They let their opponents convert on 7 of 13 third-down attempts and turned the ball over four times.

The Bears outgained West Virginia by 90 yards and had a chance to push the ball down the field for a game-tying field goal on their final possession, but the offense ran out of time.

Baylor starting quarterback Blake Shapen left in the third quarter following a helmet-to-helmet hit and was sidelined for the remainder of the game, ending the evening with 326 yards on 14 of 22 passing with a pair of touchdowns. Backup quarterback Kyron Drones came in in relief and went 7-for-14 for 95 yards with one passing touchdown and an interception.

Baylor’s receivers accounted for 421 yards with a 20-yards-per-catch average, while the Bears rushing attack averaged 4.8 yards per carry.

Shapen is questionable for Saturday along with running back Craig Williams, who ran for 25 yards on three attempts and pulled down one reception for 39 yards.

Without Shapen in the lineup, the Jayhawks defense may get some reprieve, but Kansas will still give up way too many yards to the opposition.

Kansas has allowed more than 27 points against every Power Five team it has faced, with the exception of Iowa State, who scored 11 on Kansas and ranks at the bottom of the Big 12 with 22.9 points per game.

Baylor’s defense has given up 34.3 points over its last three matchups, and the total has surpassed 60 in the Bears’ last two against Oklahoma State (second in the Big 12 in points per game) and West Virginia (fourth in the conference in points per outing).

Kansas ranks third in that category and has continued to find the end zone even with Daniels out of the lineup.

The Bears have had the Jayhawks’ number over the last 12 meetings, and home-field advantage will play into Baylor’s hands, but Kansas will keep it closer than it has in years past. However, the Jayhawks defense has been too much of a liability and will keep them from hanging around late in the game against their longtime adversary.

My best bet: Baylor -9.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Kansas vs Baylor spread analysis

Kansas last defeated Baylor in a 58-10 blowout in Lawrence back in Oct. 2007. Since then, the Bears have completely dominated the Jayhawks, with an average margin of victory of 36.8. The lone time Kansas lost by seven points or fewer was back in a 2011 home meeting that ended 31-30.

Kansas brought a 6-0 record against the spread into its matchup with Oklahoma but failed to cover for the first time all season in backup quarterback Jason Bean’s first start of 2022.

The Bears are 3-3 ATS and 2-1 ATS at home, while Kansas is 0-6 ATS in the past six head-to-head matchups in Waco and 1-11 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall. The favorite is also 12-1 ATS in the last 13, while the Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.

With Baylor fielding a better pass defense than the Jayhawks have seen in their last two against TCU and Oklahoma, Bean will have a tough time on the field, as he did last year as the starter in Baylor’s 45-7 beatdown in Lawrence.

Baylor, on the other hand, has a chance to right the ship as it clashes with the second-worst pass defense in the Big 12 and a run-stop unit that ranks third to last in the conference.

If Shapen is good to go, then Baylor should have no issue continuing its dominance over Kansas and will not only extend its win streak to 13 games but cover the spread for the 11th straight meeting against the Jayhawks.

Kansas vs Baylor Over/Under analysis

The total opened around 63.5 at several sportsbooks but has moved in favor of the Under by about three points.

With both teams potentially playing behind backup quarterbacks, scoring may be tougher to come by, and the run game could feature more heavily for Baylor.

A starter for most of Kansas’ season last year, Bean recorded four touchdown passes against a shaky Oklahoma defense but he also threw a pair of interceptions in the loss. Kansas reached the end zone twice on the ground and averaged 4.7 yards per carry, but the Sooners rank dead last in the Big 12 in rushing yards allowed, and the Bears’ run-stop unit is third-best in the conference.

Kansas will need to move the chains through the air to have a chance against Baylor and will likely be playing catchup on Saturday afternoon.

The Over is 20-9-1 in Kansas’ last 30 games overall and 15-7-1 in the Jayhawks’ last 23 conference games, but the Under is 7-2 in Baylor’s last nine versus a team with a winning record, and it’s 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Waco.

Keep an eye out for Baylor’s injury updates, as a move to the Bears’ backup quarterback could change the offensive game plan. The Bears can run all over the Jayhawks if they need to and control the clock in order to keep Kansas from getting enough opportunities in the passing game to put points on the board.

Kansas has scored 14 points or fewer in its last 10 matchups with Baylor, including a seven-point output on offense when Bean was the starter last year.

Kansas vs Baylor betting trend to know

Kansas is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas vs. Baylor.

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