The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers should have their way with the Kennesaw State Owls tonight, and that has me targeting the home team for a same-game parlay in my college football picks for October 30.
Keep reading to learn why the Hilltoppers offense is the focus in my SGP picks and Kennesaw State vs. Western Kentucky predictions for Wednesday, October 30.
Best Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky SGP for Week 10
Western Kentucky -24.5
Caden Veltkamp Over 279.5 passing yards
Kisean Johnson anytime TD
Western Kentucky -24.5
The Kennesaw State Owls may be flying high after a huge upset win over the Liberty Flames last week, but let’s not read too much into one result. That was the first win of the season for the Owls, and it required a massively disappointing performance from Liberty, which was already a severely overrated team based on a record built mostly on smoke and mirrors.
Looking a bit deeper, Kennesaw State hadn’t even covered in any of their five games before playing Liberty last week. They’ve only managed to score more than 16 points twice this entire season, and rank dead-last or close to it in most offensive metrics among FBS teams. They are 134th in both total yardage (241.6 yards per game) and yards per play (3.9) while ranking outside the Top 100 in yards per rush, yards per passing attempt, and yards per completion. The Owls are averaging 15.0 ppg, dead-last in the nation.
In other words, it’s not a problem that the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers defense has been thoroughly mediocre, as Kennesaw State doesn’t pose a threat through the air or on the ground. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are capable in the passing game, completing 67.4% of their throws and averaging 279.1 yards per game in the air.
The Owls aren’t much better on defense than they are offensively. This should be an easy blowout win at home for the Hilltoppers, who have gone 6-0 ATS over their last six games.
Caden Veltkamp Over 279.5 passing yards
That Western Kentucky passing attack is led by quarterback Caden Veltkamp. The Hilltoppers don’t ask Veltkamp to do too much, as the sophomore has thrown the ball more than 30 times just once this season. Still, he has averaged 283.4 yards passing per game over his last five outings, throwing 14 touchdowns in that period.
Veltkamp is under the radar nationally, but his numbers speak for themselves, and his 73.5 QBR ranks 30th in the nation. Kennesaw State struggles with efficient passing attacks, allowing opponents to complete 63.8% of throws and giving up 7.3 yards per attempt. The Owls don’t generate a pass rush or interceptions in the passing game, either.
I expect Veltkamp to tear this secondary apart and go well Over his passing yardage prop.
Kisean Johnson anytime TD
Finally, it makes sense to look for a beneficiary of that passing success. My pick is Kisean Johnson, the senior wide receiver who leads the Hilltoppers with 37 receptions and 493 yards.
All that activity has allowed Johnson to pick up four touchdowns on the year, and while he hasn’t found the endzone in Western Kentucky’s last two games, he’s still the most likely scorer on the team outside of goal line situations (where Veltkamp gets a lot of scores on QB sneaks).
Kennesaw State has already given up nine touchdowns of 15 yards or more on the year. I expect Veltkamp and Johnson to hook up at least once on a big play to score against the Owls tonight.
Not intended for use in MA.
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