To celebrate the 100th anniversary of Grantland Rice describing a Notre Dame Fighting Irish backfield as “the Four Horsemen,” tonight sees the Notre Dame and the Army Black Knights return to Yankee Stadium for the first time in 14 years.
That infamous “blue-gray October sky” featured a 13-7 Irish victory. My Army vs. Notre Dame predictions do not expect anything that close, despite the possible big-picture ramifications of this game that all free college football picks should acknowledge.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 23, with the game airing on NBC.
Army vs Notre Dame prediction and best bet
Who will win Army vs Notre Dame?
The best team the Knights have played this season, by the current SP+ ratings, has already fired its head coach. There has been too much discussion of various schedule strengths in the last couple weeks, and Army’s will not matter if it notches this win, but it can still be acknowledged that the Knights have not beaten anyone of consequence this season.
Beating East Carolina, 45-28, to prompt Mike Houston’s firing is hardly that notable, given the Pirates rank No. 79 in the country, 3.5 points worse than an average team. Every other Army opponent thus far this year has ranked in the bottom quarter of the country.
The Irish, meanwhile, have beaten two foes rated notably higher than the Knights. Now, Army does run a unique offense, but it is not one foreign to the Notre Dame coaching staff. This might be the best triple-option offense in a decade, but that should only mean this game is closer than usual, still not an outright upset.
My best bet
Pick: Notre Dame -14.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This would certainly feel far more comfortable if Notre Dame -14 was afoot at BetMGM, but the reality is, this game should not be within three scores.
Give the Army Black Knights credit. All any team can do is beat the teams on its schedule, and the Knights have done that in dominant fashion. If Army pulls off this upset and then proceeds to win the AAC title, it should absolutely be in the College Football Playoff.
But the Knights have not actually done enough to give the Irish any reason for worry. They have an explosive enough passing game this year, and that very well may be good for one score in the Bronx, but otherwise, Army still works a methodical approach.
The Knights rank No. 2 in the country in offensive success rate, staying ahead of the chains on 51.5% of their snaps and 52.5% of their rush attempts. Every college football fan has seen a triple-option offense gain three yards at a time until it gets down the field.
But Notre Dame ranks No. 2 in the country in defensive success rate, setting opponents off pace on 65.6% of opposing snaps. Knocking the Army off schedule just once should short-circuit an entire possession. Those numbers simply favor the Irish, as does the athleticism, obviously.
And on the other side of the ball, Notre Dame should not have to flinch at any point. Army’s rush defense will be overwhelmed, and that is the wrong spot of defensive worry to bring against the Irish. Notre Dame throws plenty, but its success and explosiveness comes on the ground, where Army ranks No. 82 in giving up success.
All due respect to the Knights, but every edge in this game lands with the Irish, and given the politicking around securing homefield advantage in the first round of the 12-team Playoff, keeping this game from getting close will serve greater Notre Dame purposes.
Army vs Notre Dame same-game parlay (SGP)
Notre Dame -14.5
Jeremiyah Love anytime touchdown
Riley Leonard anytime touchdown
Don’t overthink this. Jeremiyah Love has scored at least one touchdown in every game this year, and the Irish coaching staff is well aware of that. It is a quiet priority to keep this streak going.
Meanwhile, Riley Leonard has scored at least once in eight of 10 games, and turning to him near the goal line will help Notre Dame establish its physical dominance to enjoy a lead.
The single greatest edge the Irish will have is its offensive line against the Knights’ defensive line. Expect that to be emphasized where it matters most.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Army vs Notre Dame odds
Army vs Notre Dame live odds
Army vs Notre Dame opening odds
- Army vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -17.5
- Army vs. Notre Dame moneyline: Army +525, Notre Dame -750
- Army vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Army vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis
- The earliest genuine Sunday line set Notre Dame as a 16-point favorite, then quickly rising to -17.5.
- But then this line slipped down to -14.5 on Tuesday, refusing to give up that hook but still a notable move.
- Sunday first placed this total at 45.5, quickly falling to 44.5 and holding there until Thursday, at which point it ticked back upward to 45.5, crossing a key number.
- According to our Covers Consensus tool, 52% of users are backing the Army spread, while 64% expect the total to go Over 44.5 points.
Army vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
Both these teams have been stellar against the spread this season, with Army going 7-2 ATS and Notre Dame 8-2 ATS. However, the Knights have gone 1-2 ATS in their last three, while the Irish have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six, including covering spreads of at least -14 in each of their last five games. Find more college football betting trends for Army vs Notre Dame.
Army vs Notre Dame game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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