Kentucky vs Mississippi Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Thrive As Underdogs

These two rising SEC programs will meet for only the second time since 2017 when the Kentucky Wildcats and the Ole Miss Rebels face off on Saturday afternoon.

Both teams will be putting an undefeated record on the line with rosters that are loaded with transfers and young stars. Kentucky’s big win thus far came at Florida in Week 2, while Ole Miss has yet to face a big-time opponent.

Will Kentucky get another big road win in the SEC? Find out in our free college football betting picks and predictions for Kentucky vs. Ole Miss on Saturday, October 1.

Kentucky vs Mississippi best odds

Kentucky vs Mississippi picks and predictions

There is nothing that Mark Stoops and his Kentucky football program love more than being overlooked or disrespected. They certainly feel disrespected by this spread, despite being healthy and the No. 7 team in the country. The Wildcats have won four of their last eight games straight up when they were underdogs by six points or more.

Kentucky brings in one of the top quarterback prospects for the upcoming NFL draft, Will Levis, who transferred in from Penn State a season ago. Levis is off to a hot start this year with 1,185 passing yards with 10 touchdowns, to go along with two more scores on the ground.

Despite losing top target Wan’Dale Robinson to the NFL last year, Levis has even more weapons to toss the ball to this season. Wideout Tayvion Robinson transferred in from Virginia Tech and leads the team with 20 catches for 349 yards and two TDs.

True freshmen Dane Key and Barion Brown have also stepped up to make big plays. Key has 12 catches for 241 yards and three TDs, while Brown has 13 catches for 201 yards and two TDs, along with a kick return for six. However, they will have a tough task on Saturday against this Ole Miss defense that ranks 6th in the country in points allowed per game (10.0 ppg). The Rebels also rank 34th in yards allowed per game and record 3.7 sacks per game.

Meanwhile, Kentucky allows 4.0 sacks per game and will have their hands full with this Ole Miss defensive line. The big question mark will be the health of Ole Miss' leading sack man, Khari Coleman. He is currently questionable to play in this game after missing last week. In the rushing game, Kentucky has been one of the worst teams in the nation, ranking 113th in rushing yards per game.

Luckily for the Wildcats, they are getting back Chris Rodriguez from suspension, and he was the second leading rusher in the SEC last season. Rodriguez is the type of back that can break arm tackles and always falls forward, and that is needed when there are issues with the offensive line. The Ole Miss defense is tough, but they have yet to face an offense with the talent of this Kentucky roster.

As long as the Wildcats can hold on to the ball and protect Levis long enough to let him get off his passes, I like Kentucky to win this game outright. However, as my best bet, take the spread and give yourself a fallback in case they lose in a close game.

My best bet: Kentucky +7 (-107 at PointsBet)

Kentucky vs Mississippi spread analysis

I spent a lot of time talking about the Kentucky offense against the Ole Miss defense, but now let’s look at the reverse.

The Kentucky defense has two playmakers that transferred directly from Ole Miss, in linebacker Jacquez Jones and corner Keidron Smith. Jones is the leading tackler for Kentucky, and Smith had a huge pick-six against Florida. The Kentucky defense ranks 11th in the nation in points allowed per game (13.0 ppg) and 17th in yards allowed per game. However, they will be without leading sack man J.J. Weaver due to an arm injury.

Ole Miss has a good offensive line as well, and they only allow an average of 0.3 sacks per game. This is not your typical Lane Kiffin offense, as they are very run-heavy. They actually rank 2nd in the country in rushing yards per game behind the backfield of Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins.

Meanwhile, the Rebels rank 105th in the country in passing yards per game behind USC transfer Jaxson Dart at QB. Ole Miss struggled in the second half last week against Tulsa, as they were completely shut out with two three-and-outs and a fumble. The combination of this film and the former Ole Miss defenders on Kentucky’s roster will lead to a slow start for the Rebels’ offense.

This should be enough for Kentucky’s offense to jump out to an early lead to help cover the spread, if not win outright.

Kentucky vs Mississippi Over/Under analysis

There are quite a few factors in this game that lean towards taking the Under. Both defenses are strong at keeping opponents out of the endzone, and Ole Miss is a run-heavy offense.

Both teams have hit the Under three times in four games to start 2022. The Under is 4-1 in Kentucky’s last five road games against a team with a winning home record. The Under is 8-0 in Ole Miss’s last eight games when they were playing a team with a winning record.

I expect this to be a slow start for both teams, given the early start time and the strength that each defense brings against some possible weakness of the opposing offense. Kentucky will likely try to get their running game going with Rodriguez back, and unless there are loads of turnovers, this game should be low scoring.

Kentucky vs Mississippi betting trend to know

The Wildcats are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kentucky vs. Mississippi.

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