Louisiana vs Southern Miss Odds, Picks and Predictions: ULL Snatches Third Straight Sun Belt Victory

The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns and Southern Miss Golden Eagles are gearing up for some Sun Belt action when they meet at The Rock tonight.  

Both squads enter off back-to-back conference wins despite each starting a backup quarterback. However, ULL has had far more success with backup signal-caller Ben Wooldridge, giving me a much-needed edge in what should otherwise be a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair. 

I break it all down in my college football picks and predictions for Louisiana vs. Southern Miss below. 

Louisiana vs Southern Miss best odds

Louisiana vs Southern Miss picks and predictions

With a handful of advantages across the field and notably better quarterback play, it's hard to see why Louisiana is the underdog here, albeit a slim one at +1.5.

Defense may be the focus of Thursday's tilt, with both defensive units sitting inside the Top 35 in scoring defense (ULL 21st, USM 35th). Both are nearly identical in terms of yards allowed per play and yards allowed per game, so ULL's offense is what I see being the difference Thursday night. 

Both teams are sporting backup quarterbacks but both have had very different experiences. ULL's Ben Wooldridge has taken the reigns and has looked impressive over the last two weeks with 546 yards, seven touchdowns, and no picks in wins over Marshall (23-13 win as 10-point underdog) and Arkansas State (38-18 win as 5.5-point faves).

It hasn't been nearly the same experience for Southern Miss: Zach Wilcke took over under center early in the season and in six games, has thrown for 200+ yards just once with a poor 7/8 TD/INT ratio. As a result, this Golden Eagles offense has struggled mightily, ranking 13th of 14 Sun Belt squads in yards per game (334.3 vs. ULL's 356.9) and 12th in yards per play. 

That won't fly against a ULL defense that ranks 26th in the nation in opponent yards per play and fifth inside the Sun Belt, and while it's not saying much, the Ragin' Cajuns will have the better quarterback among the better offensive unit Thursday night. 

The Ragin' Cajuns have covered in seven of their last nine overall and four of their last five inside the Sun Belt. If their defense can wreak havoc on the turnover-prone Golden Eagles QB, their offense should be able to muster up enough points to win outright Thursday night. 

My best bet: Louisiana moneyline (+100 at BetVictor)

Louisiana vs Southern Miss spread analysis

As I broke down above, this 1.5-point line seems to be on the wrong side of the fence. Both teams enter this Thursday night bout on two-game win streaks, but ULL's is far more impressive, with a 10-point win on the road over a good Marshall team as double-digit underdogs and a dominant 38-18 victory over Arkansas State.

And while the Red Wolves are one of the worst teams in all of the FBS, Southern Miss was only able to edge them out by a point at home. The Golden Eagles have scored just 40 points over their last two wins and I expect ULL to provide a much bigger test relative to Arkansas State and Texas State, two teams lingering at the bottom of the conference. 

All things considered, both teams have been stellar against the spread, with ULL covering in seven of its last nine and USM doing so in eight of its last 10 dating back to last season — both are 5-2 against the spread this season. 

With defenses projecting to be a wash, I'm leaning on ULL's offense and the better of the two backup QBs to get it done on the road. I took the moneyline for the added value in my best bet, but having the extra point or two in what projects to be a low-scoring affair never hurts. 

Louisiana vs Southern Miss Over/Under analysis

The total hit the board at 43.5 and has since come down to 42.5 — and for good reason. 

These two defenses, as discussed above, haven't allowed for much wiggle room for opposing offenses, giving up less than 40 points per game between the two. 

Both squads are 3-4 Over/Under on the season but have consistently played to small totals. Southern Miss hasn't seen a number higher than 51 yet this season with its lowest total coming last week against Texas State — a game that comfortably stayed Under 42.5 with a 20-14 scoreline.

Between two good defenses and two limited offenses, this has all the makings of a 21-17 type finale score. I'd also consider going Under on Southern Miss' team total, which FanDuel has set at 21.5 (Under -118).

Louisiana vs Southern Miss betting trend to know

The Ragin' Cajuns are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with winning records. Find more NCAA betting trends for Louisiana vs. Southern Miss.

Louisiana vs Southern Miss game info

Louisiana vs Southern Miss latest injuries

Louisiana vs Southern Miss weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic