Louisville vs Clemson Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tigers Unleash First-Half Fury

Coming off their first loss of the season in a road setback at Notre Dame, the 10th-ranked Clemson Tigers return home to host a surging Louisville squad on Saturday afternoon in Death Valley.

The 6-3 Cardinals have seemingly turned a corner after a rough start to the season, becoming bowl eligible last weekend with a fourth consecutive win — and third straight at home — by beating James Madison, 34-10.

But can Louisville maintain its momentum while on the road against a school it has yet to beat in seven tries in the history of the program? Below are our best free college football picks and predictions for Louisville vs. Clemson in Week 11 of the college football season.

Louisville vs Clemson best odds

Louisville vs Clemson picks and predictions

Last Saturday, the Cardinals got the job done against a previously-ranked James Madison team that has now dropped three straight, with Georgia Southern and Marshall handing the Dukes their other two losses of the season.

Against the nation’s leading rushing defense, Louisville dominated on the ground, with 244 yards on 45 attempts, including 126 yards from junior Tiyon Evans. The outing marked his second straight 100-yard rushing performance.

Sophomore Jawhar Jordan also enjoyed a career day, with 117 rushing yards from 17 carries. Quarterback Malik Cunningham was just as efficient through the air, with 223 yards and three scores on 14-for-20 passing, while junior Tyler Hudson led all receivers with 142 yards on six catches.

On the other side of the ball, the defense — which had been a major liability at the beginning of the season — stifled the Dukes, who averaged 38.7 points and 480.7 yards per game ahead of last weekend’s contest. On Saturday, James Madison totaled just 193 yards of offense.

But the first half was far from a one-sided affair. James Madison went up 10-7 on a nine-yard run by Percy Agyei-Obese with 1:43 remaining in the first half, before Cunningham led the Cards down the field for a field goal to tie the game 10-all.

Out of the locker room, Louisville kicked into high gear, nailing a 35-yard field goal to open the second half, before Evans broke free for a 71-yard rushing touchdown to lift the Cards, 20-10.

The Dukes never picked up points after halftime, punting the ball away on every possession, save for a missed field goal from 52 yards late in the third quarter.

James Madison QB Todd Centeio threw for just 52 yards on 4-for-15 passing in his first game back from an oblique injury since the loss to Georgia Southern. In his two previous games, he totaled 862 passing yards against the Eagles and Arkansas State.

Interestingly enough, despite holding the Dukes to just 10 points, Louisville failed to record a sack or a turnover in the victory — the first time in more than two decades that Louisville won a game under those circumstances.

The game prior, Louisville earned a win over then-No. 10 Wake Forest by forcing eight turnovers, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. The Cards will need to return to that level of dominance on defense to get a win against Clemson, who gave the ball away twice, including on a 96-yard interception return in the 35-14 loss to Notre Dame.

It’s unlikely Clemson will make those same mistakes twice. While the Fighting Irish are trending upward like Louisville, the Cards have a miserable history against Clemson and are likely to come crashing back down to earth when they visit the hostile territory of Death Valley.

This team has never won against the Tigers in any stadium, and the last time the Cards visited Clemson, they were handed an embarrassing 77-16 defeat in 2018, the year before head coach Scott Satterfield joined the program.

Since then, Louisville has hosted Clemson twice, losing 45-10 and 30-24 in 2019 and 2021, respectively.

With last weekend’s loss to Notre Dame, Clemson fell from fourth in the country to 10th and is at risk of missing the College Football Playoff for the second straight season after making six straight appearances from 2015-2020.

Luckily for the Tigers, they get to finish out their schedule at home and own a 38-game home winning streak. They also reeled off 14 consecutive victories the last time the team lost a game, back in Oct. 2021 at No. 23 Pitt.

Dabo Swinney will have his team ready to come out swinging when the Cards arrive in town, and the mistakes from last week will be a thing of the past. Louisville will give Clemson a tougher battle than usual, but the Tigers should have a sizable lead heading into the half.

My best bet: Clemson first half -4 (-110 at DraftKings)

Louisville vs Clemson spread analysis

Starting QB DJ Uiagalelei went 27-for-39 passing for 191 yards and threw one touchdown against one interception in the loss to Notre Dame and was briefly pulled in favor of freshman backup Cade Klubnik for the second straight contest.

The game before, Klubnik stepped in as Clemson trailed 21-10 in the third quarter against then-No. 14 Syracuse and helped the Tigers storm back to win 27-21.

This time around, Klubnik got the call near the end of the third quarter against Notre Dame and was yanked immediately after his interception. But it only got worse from there when Uiagalelei stepped back in, then led his team down to the Notre Dame 19-yard line, only to be picked off, with the defense running it all the way back to the other end zone.

There was never much of a spark from Clemson last Saturday, as Notre Dame linebacker Jordan Botelho set the tone early with a blocked punt that was scooped up by Prince Kollie and taken to the house early in the first quarter.

In Clemson’s worst loss to an unranked opponent in 11 years, the offense amassed just 281 total yards and went scoreless until the fourth quarter.

The Irish racked up 263 yards on the ground against the Tigers’ Top-20 rushing defense, which Louisville can try to replicate after its success against James Madison.

While history has been unkind to Louisville in this series, the Cardinals have mustered up some confidence ahead of a meeting with an opponent who has played the role of Goliath for far too long.

If Louisville can create some turnovers and put pressure on Uiagalelei like the defense was able to do against Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman, the Cards have a fighting chance.

Louisville is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games overall and 4-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record, while the Cards are 2-0 ATS as a road underdog this season.

Clemson is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference games and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Louisville, but the Tigers are just 1-3 ATS at home in 2022.

Louisville vs Clemson Over/Under analysis

Uiagalelei is expected to start again on Saturday, but Swinney has made it clear he’s willing to pull him for Klubnik if the struggles continue. The freshman quarterback was thrown into an unfavorable situation last week, but Swinney won’t wait as long to make the switch on Saturday if Uiagalelei comes out sluggish.

The Cards, on the other hand, are getting some of their best play from Cunningham at the moment, and should feel particularly optimistic by the way the run game has performed of late.

The total opened between 51 and 53 points at most sportsbooks and has settled between 51.5 and 52.

The only time the total has dipped below 54 in this series was in the first two games between these programs, a 23-17 victory at Clemson in 2014 and a 20-17 decision in Louisville in 2015.

Since then, the average total score has been 69.6 points.

The total has hit the Over in four of Louisville's last five games against Clemson and six of Clemson's last eight games against the Atlantic Division, while the Over is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last five conference games and 4-1 in Clemson’s last five versus a team with a winning record.

Louisville vs Clemson betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in Louisville's last five conference games and 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Louisville vs. Clemson.

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