It's one of four ranked matchups during the weekend as Louisville meets Notre Dame in what is anticipated to be a close contest.
My favorite Lousiville vs. Notre Dame prediction is a play on the total, as it's likely to be a battle in the trenches throughout.
Read why in the early college football picks ahead.
Louisville vs Notre Dame predictions
Early spread lean
Louisville +6 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Do the Louisville Cardinals have a better coach here? I don't know how you could argue otherwise.
When the Notre Dame Fighting Irish came to Louisville last season, Brohm out-schemed Irish head coach Marcus Freeman massively despite having the less talented quarterback and less talent in the trenches. It was a Notre Dame offensive line with multiple first-round draft picks, including Joe Alt, perhaps already a top-five offensive lineman in the NFL. Louisville, for the most part, decimated them, posting a havoc rating of 21%. That means that on 21% of Notre Dame's offensive plays, Louisville tapped a pass, got a sack, or had a tackle for loss. It was impressive, and the scheme had tons to do with it.
Louisville can recreate its defensive scheme from a season ago and hope an offense that lost two NFL running backs can get enough on the ground to pull the upset. Either way, a cover feels quite attainable.
You can say what you want about a soft schedule for the Cardinals to this point (I could retort that Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois), but what they've put on paper is a defense that ranks 6th in the country in havoc. It faced an offensive line last week that is now the only team at the Power 4 level not to allow a sack. Yet still, Louisville created plenty of pressure and forced havoc in the backfield. You can argue about the offensive line qualities between Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. Still, there isn't much difference in quality (I'd say Georgia Tech has shown more). However, Louisville forced so much backfield chaos a season ago against a more experienced group, and it is already showing those qualities this season, which makes me think a scenario from last year is replicable.
Louisville has issues, certainly. Even with a veteran at center and veterans on the defensive end of the ball, it's still the Cardinals' first road trip of the season. Additionally, it's shown some significant issues slowing down running QBs in the season's small sample size — they'll certainly see that here. However, there's enough to suggest that the Cardinals will disrupt the Irish offense and force them into uncomfortable third-down positions, which have already been a problem for them this season. Coming into this game, Notre Dame ranks below average on third-down conversions. A touchdown is too much in what figures to be an offensive struggle.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I'm quite strong on the under here and see around five points of value. There are some benefits to grabbing this at the current number, as BetMGM is a bit off-market compared to other books. The placement is also significant. 48 has been a critical number this season, with around 4% of games landing between 47 and 48.
Let's touch on the stylistic elements that make this a good bet.
The first is the market disagreement on Brohm and the reality so far during his tenure at Louisville. As we've hit on earlier, Brohm has gained a reputation for being a high-scoring, aggressive, offensive play-caller. While that's still true in some respects, he's grown more conservative with the Cardinals.
We saw that immediately last season when his team turned into a run-heavy offense, mostly due to a lack of trust in his QB, but we also saw it last week. Louisville had an obvious advantage in passing situations, facing one of the most big-play exploitable secondaries in the ACC in Georgia Tech, and still ran a ton.
The Cardinals were still successful when they hit the air, too. Louisville posted just over 14 yards per drop-back. And that's what makes you wonder why they didn't pass more. The game ended with QB Tyler Shough's second-fewest passing attempts in his five-year college career at 19. Is Brohm going to continue to approach things with a clock-eating style, even with a better quarterback leading the way? Last week was quite telling of that answer – I think so. Louisville is averaging 57 plays per game. That's the sixth-lowest in the country. It ran just 43 in its ACC opener too. However, it lost two possessions due to a defensive and special teams score, which still speaks to a slowed tempo compared to the narrative around Brohm. We're capturing some of that.
Conversely, we have Notre Dame, which may still not trust its quarterback, Riley Leonard. He had to respond to some home fans booing his slow start last week against Miami (OH).
Notre Dame has one of the lowest pass explosiveness ratings in the sport at 2%, and Leonard has a negative EPA per drop-back in the year, placing him 91st amongst starting quarterbacks. Beyond that, though, the more advantageous matchup in this game is for Notre Dame to run the ball, as I mentioned above, and it's something they are significantly more comfortable with, averaging the 50th most run plays per game in the sport.
Both of these defensive fronts are solid enough to slow the scoring on two teams that will want to run the ball on them. Louisville has a fringe first-round defensive end in Ashton Gillotte and an emerging talent in Tramel Logan, who ranks 10th in the ACC in TFLs. Notre Dame has Notre Dame defensive lineman, which says enough. That, combined with the projected tempo of this one, makes the Under a shrewd play.
Louisville vs Notre Dame live odds
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