South Bend will feature a Top-20 showdown when the Louisville Cardinals visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday.
This contest should be a tight one, and we’ve identified three player props that your college football picks should be focusing on in this key matchup that could have major College Football Playoff implications for both teams.
Louisville vs Notre Dame props for Week 5
- Bell Over 42.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Leonard Over 57.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Love Over 8.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 9-28.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Louisville vs Notre Dame college football player props
Prop bet #1: Chris Bell Over 42.5 receiving yards
Tyler Shough has been money on short throws this season. He’s attempted 25 downfield passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and he’s completed 24 of them. Those completions have gone for 294 yards. His other 28 completions have accounted for 556 yards, with 16 of those completions going for 20+ yards.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish don’t allow big plays in the passing game. They've allowed just 20 passes of 10+ yards all season, and only five times have they allowed a completion of 20+ yards, but one area where they've been hurt is yards after catch. Of the 541 yards they’ve given up through four games, 323 of those have been YAC.
Shough will need to rely on his short passing game a bit more against the Notre Dame defense, and Chris Bell is a target he should be looking for. The receiver has only six catches on the season, but he’s gained 167 yards and scored twice.
He’s averaging 17.2 YAC this season and has an average route of 14.8 yards on eight targets. Five of his catches this season have been on throws between 0-9 yards downfield, and he’s gained 119 yards — 98 of which have come after reception.
Northern Illinois receiver Antario Brown caught two passes against the Irish, one of which was a 10-yard completion that he took 83 yards to paydirt. Bell has the speed to do the same on a short catch or two.
He’s notched at least one catch of 24+ yards in all three games and has topped 60 yards in his last two.
Prop bet #2: Riley Leonard Over 57.5 rushing yards
This Louisville Cardinals run defense is legit. The Cardinals held Jamal Haynes to just 25 yards on 12 carries — with 17 of those coming on one play — in their win over Georgia Tech last weekend. They’re holding opponents to just 3.3 yards per carry and rank 19th nationally in EPA/rush.
However, their run-stuffing ability doesn’t extend to dealing with mobile quarterbacks. Louisville has given up 159 rushing yards to quarterbacks over its past two games which is a weakness Riley Leonard should exploit.
The Cardinals beat Jacksonville State 49-14 three weeks ago and sacked Tyler Huff twice. Despite those impacting his rushing stats, he still gained 101 yards on 18 carries and found the endzone. And those stats weren’t coming in garbage time, as he ran for 81 of those yards before halftime in a game that was 28-14 at the break.
Last week, Haynes King racked up 58 yards on 14 carries and was not sacked a single time despite throwing the ball 32 times on 33 dropbacks. And only two of his rushing attempts ended with a loss of yardage.
Leonard’s 46 carries have him tied for the team lead with Jeremiyah Love, and he’s gaining seven yards a pop. He has a 76.8 run grade this season from PFF, ranking him 13th among 57 eligible quarterbacks. In his two games against Power Four opponents, he ran for 64 yards against Texas A&M and 100 yards against Purdue.
The Cardinals have a sack rate of just 3.23% this season, ranking them 105th in the nation. That means Leonard shouldn’t lose any yardage off his rushing total due to sacks. He should also be able to take advantage of Louisville focusing on stopping Love and Jadarian Price, each of whom is gaining more than 7.0 yards per carry.
Prop bet #3: Jeremiyah Love Over 8.5 receiving yards
One of the reasons Leonard runs so much is that he can’t throw downfield. And that’s not a joke; he’s been atrocious.
He’s completed only one of those throws. Oh, and his throws of 10+ yards downfield aren’t much better. Leonard’s completed just 11 of 24 such attempts.
The one area where he’s done well is throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage. He’s completed 15 of 16 throws in the backfield for 87 yards. He’s also been decent on short throws, completing 38 of 50 attempts within nine yards of the LOS for 312 yards.
Dumping the ball off is one way Notre Dame can get Love involved if they struggle to run the ball. And it’s an area where he’s done well this season.
With an average depth of target of less than one yard downfield, much of what the Notre Dame running back will have to do comes after the run. He’s averaging 8.0 YAC and he’s facing a Louisville defense ranked 90th in yards per pass.
If Love can simply replicate what Jamal Haynes did for Georgia Tech last week — one catch for 11 yards — then he’ll easily clear this low number.
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