LSU vs Auburn Odds, Picks and Predictions: No Dice For Bigsby's Run Game

If you’re a fan of Tigers, then you won’t want to miss Saturday’s game between LSU and Auburn. These two striped SEC West opponents are familiar foes, and the visiting Bayou Bengals will be seeking their first win over their rivals since a 2019 victory on the road in Auburn. 

While both teams are 3-1 on the season, their mentality coming into the game couldn’t be further apart. LSU is flying high under new head coach Brian Kelly, while Auburn coach Bryan Harsin needs a win to avoid his seat getting any hotter.

Let’s go over your best betting options for the game in our LSU vs. Auburn college football betting picks and predictions for Saturday, October 1. 

LSU vs Auburn best odds

LSU vs Auburn picks and predictions

Tank Bigsby came into the season with high expectations, especially from Auburn fans. In its opening week game against Mercer, he ran for 147 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries, and seemed poised for a solid season.

Three games later, and Bigsby is still yet to double his rushing total for the season. After gaining just 51 yards on 13 carries against a San Jose State team that ranks 53rd in yards per carry against, he managed only 39 yards on nine attempts against Penn State. 

Last week, Missouri locked him down to just 2.3 yards per attempt and 44 total yards on the ground on 19 carries — 14 of which came on a single play. He gained just eight yards after the first quarter against a Missouri run defense ranked 16th in the nation at just 3.0 yards per carry.

Two spots ahead of the Tigers are another set of Tigers. LSU is allowing just 2.9 yards per carry this season, and if you exclude FCS opponent Southern, that number actually drops even further. In its three games against FBS teams, LSU has held every starting back it's faced this season to no more than 50 yards. It has also allowed just 4.7 rushing first downs per game — fifth-best in the country.

Now Louisiana State gets to go up against an Auburn team that will have a redshirt freshman quarterback making just his second start. LSU’s defense is fast and relentless. Auburn’s dealing with serious offensive line woes, as its 7.25 tackles for loss allowed per game is among the most in college football. On passing plays, it's allowing the eighth-highest sack rate in the nation at 11.83%, and now must block an LSU defensive front whose 10.87% sack rate is bested by just three teams. 

Unlike Missouri last week, these LSU Tigers are not going to allow Auburn to stay in a close game if it doesn’t score points. If the Bayou Bengals get out to a lead and extend it, Auburn will likely have to abandon the run game. 

Even before that, I fully expect LSU to load the box and bring pressure against a maligned Auburn line, and force Robby Ashford to beat them with his arm. Either way, there’s little chance that Bigsby reaches his rushing yardage total for this game, so take the Under with confidence. 

My best bet: Tank Bigsby Under 70.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

LSU vs Auburn spread analysis

Auburn has to still be thanking its lucky stars it escaped with a win last week. Leading 14-0 after the first quarter, it was shut out the remainder of regulation, and in overtime was held to a field goal on its opening possession. Missouri had what looked to be the winning touchdown in hand, before Mizzou running back Nathaniel Peat inexplicably fumbled the ball as he reached for the endzone.

The week before, Auburn was throttled at home by Penn State 41-12, and its only other FBS game was an eight-point win over San Jose State. It's struggling to score, with just 26 points scored in its last 120 minutes of regulation played, and it's unable to keep its defense off the field, ranked 103rd in time of possession against.

Meanwhile, LSU comes into the game with one of the better defenses in the country.  Quarterback Jayden Daniels has added stability to the offense, and has yet to throw an interception this season. Its offensive line is struggling a bit to protect its QB, but the Bayou Bengals have looked impressive since their first-week loss to Florida State. Last weekend, they outscored Mississippi State 24-3 after halftime in a comeback win.

LSU opened as a touchdown favorite and the line has moved another point over the week. LSU has won five of its last seven games, and 10 of the last 15 meetings between these two programs. Meanwhile, Auburn has failed to cover the spread in five straight games and has won just three of its last nine. 

LSU vs Auburn Over/Under analysis

Auburn’s scoring struggles, combined with LSU’s improving defense, are a big reason why the total opened at 44 for this game. However, the public has bet it up nearly three points as the week has progressed. That might present some value for the savvy bettor. 

Auburn’s seen just one game go Over the total in its last six conference games. As for LSU, seven of its last 10 games went Under the number. In conference play, that rate is even higher, with the Under hitting in four of five. 

This series has an even higher propensity for going below the number. In five of their last six meetings, LSU and Auburn have gone Under the total. The Under has also hit in each of the last five meetings at Jordan-Hare Stadium, and in 10 of the last 11 games played in Auburn.

While LSU has seen three of its four games this season eclipse the total for Saturday’s game, two of those games did so by just a half point. As for the hosts, two of Auburn’s three games against FBS opponents have failed to reach the projected total of 46.5 on Saturday. 

LSU vs Auburn betting trend to know

The underdog has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six games between LSU and Auburn. Find more NCAA betting trends for LSU vs. Auburn.

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