LSU vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Marks Makes Impact on the Ground for Bulldogs

The No. 14 LSU Tigers head to Starkville this weekend for their first SEC matchup of the year against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, where the college football odds have them as 9.5-point favorites.

For at least the next month, everything that LSU does will be hampered by its opening night loss to Florida State. If it wants to be in the College Football Playoff, it has to be close to perfect the rest of the way.

There's at least some optimism for Mississippi State coming into this one. After the tragic loss of head coach Mike Leach last season, the Bulldogs finished the year with a bowl win over Illinois. It has since ridden that momentum to open the season with back-to-back wins against Arizona and Southeastern Louisiana.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for LSU vs. Mississippi State on Saturday, September 16.

LSU vs Mississippi State best odds

LSU vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

It's difficult to grasp either of these teams at the moment.

The things we know pale compared to what we think about these teams. I think LSU is still a borderline Top 10 team. It was my National Champion pick before the season, and while that looks foolish for the moment, the offensive metrics it's put up have mostly lived up to my expectations. Still, it's tough to escape that fourth quarter collapse against Florida State.

Then there's Mississippi State. I trust QB Will Rogers. If it seems like he's been there forever, it's because he's entering his senior season as a Bulldog, and he's started every year he's been there.

But I'm not sure about everything else. This differs from the run-and-gun Bulldogs offense you've been accustomed to. It's going to run the ball, and it's going to do it a ton. It's also hard to be sure how good it even is. Last Saturday, Mississippi State was in a dogfight with a fairly pedestrian Arizona team before eventually winning in overtime.

With so many unknowns, you have to go where the data tells you, and that's for State to have success on the ground. My best bet is Jo'quavious Marks Over 73.5 rushing yards.

LSU has been gutted defensively, and have been particularly bad on the ground. The numbers tell the story.

The Tigers rank in the 100s of college football in essentially any EPA rushing stat you'd want to look at, including 107th in total rushing EPA at 6.63. Under new coach Zach Arnett, the Bulldogs want to establish a potent rushing attack. Overall, they rank 52nd in the country in rushing yards and 32nd in rushing plays per game, averaging 38 through two games.

Florida State started to lean on LSU in the second half in the opener with its rushing attack. Trey Benson finished the game with just 12 carries and 47 yards. But in the second half of that one, he went from just 1.2 yards per carry to over four, which helped change the game. The Bulldogs can replicate that body blow effect.

Last week against Arizona, Marks got the rock a whopping 24 times and responded with 124 yards on the ground. It was an impressive display of stamina and a workmanlike attitude. He should be able to offer up something against LSU that the Noles couldn't do, and that's power runs.

Florida State attempted just two defined that way in the opener and was successful with both. At 5-foot-10 and 210 pounds, Marks isn't the most physically imposing running back you'll find, but he has exceptional strength and an ability to break tackles. He may expose a potential weakness along the front seven for LSU.

Give me Marks' rushing over here. Whether it's a combination of simple volume or success, Marks can cash this one. I expected this line to be over 80, so I'm happy to grab it at this number.

My best bet: Jo'quavious Marks Over 73.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

LSU vs Mississippi State same-game parlay

Marks Over 73.5 rushing yards

Jayden Daniels anytime TD

Over 54.5

+370 at FanDuel

With Marks leading the way for our best bet, we're adding two things for our same-game parlay. We'll discuss these elements in more depth below, but let's touch on them now.

We're adding a Jayden Daniels anytime touchdown to start. Again, I will discuss this more below, but Mississippi State struggled last week to defend Arizona QB Jayden de Laura on the ground. This week, they get a much more athletic test in Daniels, who loves to be the primary scoring threat in the red zone. 

Lastly, we're adding the Over here. I spent the above talking about some of the issues of the Tigers' defense, but the Bulldogs aren't immune to them either. With both quarterbacks capable of explosive plays at any time, I like points here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

LSU vs Mississippi State spread and Over/Under analysis

The slightest of leans to LSU here, but certainly nothing playable. 

I am struggling to gather how good either of these teams is. LSU certainly has the better players. There is no wideout like Malik Nabers at Mississippi State and no defensive player like linebacker Harold Perkins. Still, the defense collectively has too many issues, and I'm just not willing to lay over a touchdown with those issues. Similarly, I'm unwilling to back a Bulldogs team that barely won in Arizona last weekend.

I'm on the Over. There's more certainty betting on these teams' defenses to struggle than anything else. I projected the total at 55.5, and I'll grab 54.5 at FanDuel. The edge certainly isn't considerable, but it's playable. We've spent so much time talking about the LSU defense that it's worth shifting our attention to the Mississippi State side.

de Laura led the Wildcats in rushing with eight carries for 44 yards and a touchdown. Now State faces QB Jayden Daniels. I assume anyone reading this knows what the Tigers QB can do on the ground. He's a faster, more athletic version of de Laura, which forces one to ask if they struggled with him, then what would happen against Daniels?

That doesn't begin to describe the other defensive issues that State must account for. That includes defending the elite LSU wide receiver core.

Both teams have multiple defensive problems, and it isn't easy to see how this one stays low-scoring.

LSU vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

LSU has hit the Over in nine of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs Mississippi State.

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