There’s only one team with momentum coming into this game... and it’s not Mississippi State.
Instead, it’s the LSU Tigers, who had their best performance (and first ATS win) against Central Michigan last week. Now the Tigers will travel to Starkville, for an intra-conference matchup against the Bulldogs, on Saturday as college football betting road favorites.
While LSU is flying high, the Bulldogs, on the other hand, are coming off a deflating 31-29 loss to Memphis last week, after knocking off NC State and Louisiana Tech to start their season. The defense has allowed 31 or more points in two of their first three games and has not looked capable of defending SEC-caliber offenses.
Can the LSU offense continue to thrive, or will Mississippi State shut them down and start a new win streak? Find out in our LSU vs. Mississippi State picks and predictions for September 25.
LSU vs Mississippi State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Tigers opened as four-point favorites and have now been bet down to 2.5-point chalk at the time of writing. The total hovered around 59.5 points at open but has since dropped to 56 points — and even 55.5 at some books. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
LSU vs Mississippi State picks
Picks made on 9/22/2021 at 10:23 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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LSU vs Mississippi State game info
• Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
• Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
LSU vs Mississippi State betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
LSU: Andre Anthony DE (Out), Anthony Bradford OL (Questionable), Myles Brennan QB (Out), Tyrion Davis-Price RB (Questionable), John Emery Jr. RB (Out), Ali Gaye DE (Questionable), Jontre Kirklin WR (Questionable).
Mississippi State: None to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Find more NCAA betting trends for LSU vs. Mississippi State.
LSU vs Mississippi State predictions
LSU -2.5 (-110)
The LSU Tigers have a number of players injured and/or academically unavailable. For those who aren’t fans of LSU, this might be shocking news. To those following the LSU program? Not nearly as big a surprise.
Still, despite missing more than a dozen of players, LSU is starting to shape up: It's scoring 36.7 points per game and averaging nearly 400 yards per game.
The Tigers are led by quarterback Max Johnson, who has thrown 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions through three games. The competition hasn’t been elite but a solid effort (330 yards, three touchdowns, one interception) in a loss against UCLA proved that Johnson is capable against Top-25 talent.
LSU’s offensive line has been well above average so far this year, giving Johnson ample time in the pocket. It will get harder against SEC competition but, to be fair, Mississippi State won’t be that hard to block in the passing game.
Defensively, LSU has learned that they’ll be without DE Andre Anthony for the remainder of the season. The sixth-year senior was an integral part of their defense (3.5 sacks in three games) and helped put together one of the best pass-rushing units in the nation. Even without Anthony, the Tiges' pass rush will still be a factor, thanks to a ridiculously good coverage unit, and the defense still looks like one of the best in the nation.
They still need to tackle better and the rushing defense needs to limit the big plays allowed, but the Tigers' defense shouldn't get exploited too badly against Mississippi State.
I say this because the Bulldogs don’t run the ball very much. They’re pass-happy on the offensive end, and trying to throw against LSU’s secondary will be difficult, while LSU's pass rush will test quarterback Will Rogers, who stands behind a leaky Mississippi State offensive line.
Rogers has thrown for 1,083 yards, along with eight touchdowns and one interception, through three games. But again, all the Bulldogs do is throw the ball (Rogers had 67 pass attempts last week against 13 running back carries) so his numbers will be inflated — and he's been sacked six times already.
Defensively, Mississippi State has stopped the run, holding its opponents to just 74 yards on the ground per game. But just like LSU, the Bulldogs have struggled to make tackles in the open field — plus they haven’t been able to get much pressure on the QB.
The coverage has been very good for the Bulldogs but if the pass rush is ineffective, the secondary will eventually break down.
Meanwhile, Max Johnson should be able to move his legs in the pocket, be patient and make big plays down the field with his arm. I’ll take LSU as the road favorite.
Over 56 (-110)
While Mississippi State doesn't run the ball very much, LSU doesn’t run the ball effectively either. That means we can expect lots of throws from Rogers and Johnson on Saturday.
LSU has allowed 22 points per game, while Mississippi State has allowed 25 points per game, but nobody would be surprised if both defenses cough up 30+ points against deep SEC offenses.
While the Tigers have controlled the passing game on the defensive end, they have been prone to allowing big plays downfield. Their defense can be really good but it's not perfect just yet — they’ve struggled to put together a full defensive effort, dating back to last season.
Both offenses are consistently dangerous in the passing game and at the end of the day, they’ll get the job done and get Over the total.
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