While it’s only Week 9, the matchup between the LSU Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies could play a major role in determining who participates in the SEC Championship.
Both teams sit at 6-1 on the season, but my early LSU vs. Texas A&M predictions believe the Aggies will be the team to prevail come Saturday. Find out why in my college football picks for Saturday, October 26.
LSU vs Texas A&M predictions
Early spread lean
Texas A&M -2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The spread for this game has been all over the place early on. After opening with LSU getting 2.5 points, the public bet that down to 1.5 before moving it to the Tigers getting 4.5 at one point.
After all that…it’s settled back at the original number, which is one that has me leaning toward Texas A&M and laying the points.
Garrett Nussmeier has had a strong season for the Tigers, throwing for over 2,200 yards and 18 touchdowns, but he’s been a bit turnover prone against Power 4 opponents — throwing four of his picks against USC, Ole Miss, and South Carolina.
It’s no coincidence those are the three teams who have had the most success putting the LSU QB under pressure. The Tigers have the lowest sack rate in college football, but South Carolina was able to hurry him multiple times and sack him twice.
Last week, Arkansas registered a half-dozen pressures as he failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time all season. While the offensive line performed better than against SC, the Tigers were aided by their high success rate with the ground game, as Caden Durham averaged nearly five yards per carry.
Nussmeier has played on the road just twice this season, and his two worst passer ratings occurred in those contests against SC and the Razorbacks. The Texas A&M defense he’ll face on Saturday is nasty at every level, ranked 15th in average distance to gain on third down, 26th in third down success rate, and 24th in EPA/rush against.
Conner Weigman hasn’t put up numbers anywhere near Nussmeier’s, but he simply needs to be a game manager here. The Aggies know the best way to keep LSU’s offense from scoring is to sideline it, and they’ll rely on the ground game and star back Le’Veon Moss.
The Tigers are middle of the pack against the run and 110th in third-down defense. And when Weigman does go to the air, he’ll be facing a suspect LSU secondary.
If this game were being played at LSU or a neutral site, I’d take the Tigers. But the 12th Man will be the advantage here as the Aggies force Nussmeier to sit for long stretches and then get pressure on him when he’s on the field.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 53.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The total of 53.5 has seen zero movement since opening, and I lean Under in what should be a tight contest.
A&M will want to control the time of possession against an LSU team that can put up points when it gets rolling. It’s a recipe that nearly worked for Mississippi, who was moments away from defeating the Tigers in Baton Rouge on the back of a 25-carry, 149-yard performance by Ulysses Bentley IV and Henry Parrish, Jr.
LSU ranks 19th in time of possession but just 46th in plays per game. Texas A&M ranks 88th in plays per game while ranking 24th in time of possession. Where they differ is the Tigers rank 18th in yards per play, while the Aggies are 50th. In other words, LSU can run a slower tempo and keep the ball while moving it downfield
That won’t work against this Texas A&M defense. The Aggies rank 20th in yards allowed per play and seventh in third-down conversion rate. LSU thrives on being able to extend drives, something it’s offense can’t count on here.
On the other hand, LSU’s run defense will be heavily tested. South Carolina ran for 243 yards on 41 carries, with Raheim Sanders and LaNorris Sellers both averaging 7+ yards per attempt.
Weigman doesn’t run a lot, but he’s gained 5.9 yards per carry on 19 attempts. He prefers to turn and hand off to Moss and Amari Daniels, both of whom gain better than four yards a carry and have a combined 966 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.
One other factor to keep in mind is LSU’s red zone defense. The Tigers rank first nationally, with nearly 30% of opponents' trips inside the 20 yielding zilch. The Aggies have yet to come away without a score in their visits to the red zone, but that could come to an end here — or at least result in more field goal attempts than normal.
Only one of Texas A&M’s six games against FBS teams has gone Over the number for this game, and the FBS games at Kyle Field have averaged just 42.8 points per contest.
These are two offenses that like to take their time, and with A&M’s focus on running the ball and its defense slowing things down for the Tigers, we'll see another Under here.
LSU vs Texas A&M live odds
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