Maryland vs Ohio State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Twice as Nice for Henderson

Two of the most efficient teams in the country are on a collision course with the loser set to blow their undefeated record as Maryland heads to Columbus to take on Ohio State in a game that may be closer than the college football odds have it.

While head coach Mike Locksley has the Terrapins an impressive 13th in the country in EPA per play, one spot higher than Ryan Day’s Buckeyes, there’s an exploitable hole for Ohio State to take advantage of in this clash.

Find out where my best bets lie in our free college football picks and predictions for Maryland vs. Ohio State on Saturday, October 7.

Maryland vs Ohio State best odds

Maryland vs Ohio State picks and predictions

On paper, both of these teams look impressive with both being Top-35 in the country in EPA per play on offense and defense. The Terrapins are one of the most underrated teams in college football and have an opportunity to keep it close despite the Buckeyes being a 20-point favorite.

It’s a tough call going either way on this one, but one thing is for certain, Ohio State should be more than willing to lean on their run game, especially in a matchup that favors the talent in their running back room.

As a freshman, TreVeyon Henderson was one of the best playmakers in the country, and after a sophomore season spent banged up, Henderson looks like he’s returning to form, and Day has been feeding him as a result.

With the Buckeyes run game coming together and Maryland sitting 76th in EPA per rush on defense, Henderson should be in for a big game… Which makes his two or more touchdowns line mighty attractive.

While Ohio State is loaded with pass-catchers, first year starting quarterback Kyle McCord has been shaky for much of the season and it won’t be any easier against Maryland defensive coordinator Brian Williams secondary.

The Terrapins have a few future NFL players on the backend, led by safety Beau Brade, and that’s a big reason why they’re ninth in the country in EPA per pass on defense and have only given up five passing touchdowns in five games.

As a result, Henderson will be relied on to carry the load for Day’s offense, and this is the kind of game he’s been building towards this season since returning to health, and form, as a junior.

In his career, Henderson has scored 31 touchdowns in 24 games and in 10 of those games he scored at least two touchdowns. This season he’s hit the two-touchdown threshold twice in four games and leads the team in touchdowns with five.

The Buckeyes have been running the ball well this year at 5.1 yards per carry and 149 yards per game. The trio of Henderson, Chip Trayanum, and Miyan Williams have combined for 514 yards, but Henderson has taken the lion’s share of the work.

The star junior has accounted for 295 rushing yards, 57% of them, while averaging nearly a yard more per carry (6.7) than Trayanum (5.8), and almost three more yards than Williams (3.8).

A potential Top-60 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and maybe even the first running back selected, Henderson’s workload has increased the last two games with his burst and contact balance setting him apart from the rest of the backfield. He’s averaged 14 touches over those two games for 109.5 yards from scrimmage and 1.5 touchdowns.

With McCord being a young and inexperienced passer, Day has even talked about the running game being more integral to the offense this season. 

“You think about the first years for Justin (Fields) and for CJ (Stroud), it was important to have a good running game,” Day said earlier this season. “You have to be able to run the football when you get in the red zone, when you get in third down situations. First and second down, it sets up play action pass. So, it’s something that we’ve been spending a lot of time on. I like our progress there, but we’ve got to keep building on it.”

My best bet: TreVeyon Henderson two or more touchdowns (+140 at bet365)

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Maryland vs Ohio State same-game parlay

Henderson two or more TDs (+140)

Marvin Harrison Jr. anytime TD scorer (-334)

Ohio State Over 34.5 points (-245)

+339 at bet365

If Henderson is scoring multiple touchdowns, Ohio State will be scoring plenty of points, which has been the norm during Day’s tenure.

Last year, the Buckeyes averaged 44.2 points per game, second best in the country, and while they’re still adjusting to having McCord run the show, they’ve been scoring 34.5 per contest this season. Ohio State has hit the team total Over in three of their last four games (+1.85 Units / 40% ROI). 

With a star like Marvin Harrison Jr. healthy on the outside, he’ll open things up for the ground game while creating complete mismatches in the passing game. Since becoming a starter as a freshman in the Rose Bowl, the future Top-5 pick has scored 20 touchdowns in 18 games at Ohio State.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Maryland vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis

The Buckeyes opened between 18 and 18.5-point home favorites at most books with the line continuing to trend in their direction. Ohio State is -19.5 or -20 now depending on the book.

This season, Day’s squad has struggled to cover the spread, going 1-2-1. They’ve been favored in all five games this season, but only covered the 29.5-point spread against Western Kentucky.

As for Locksley’s team, they’ve gone 3-2 ATS and covered in their last three games against Virginia, Michigan State, and Indiana. This is the first game of the season they haven’t been the favorite in.

With this being a battle of two of the best offenses and defenses in the Big Ten, the game total opened at 55.5, but has shifted up to between 57 and 57.5.

Surprisingly, the Buckeyes are just 1-3 this season when betting the Over; it only hit against the Hilltoppers. The Terrapins on the other hand are 3-2 to the Over and hit it last week in their 44-17 win over the Hoosiers.

Maryland vs Ohio State betting trend to know

Ohio State has hit the Over in eight of its last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Maryland vs Ohio State.

Maryland vs Ohio State game info

Maryland vs Ohio State latest injuries

Maryland vs Ohio State weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic