The Hawaii Bowl stands alone as the sole college football game on the Christmas Eve schedule.
Neither team was particularly impressive in 2021, as Memphis sits at 6-6 and Hawaii has a losing record at 6-7 despite a soft schedule. Neither was profitable against the spread, either, with Memphis sitting at 4-8 ATS and Hawaii at 5-7-1 ATS.
Which team will finish the season on a high note with a victory in the Hawaii Bowl — the home team, or the visiting Tigers?
See our free college football betting picks and predictions for the Hawaii Bowl between the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the Memphis Tigers on Friday, December 24 to find out.
Editor's note: This game was canceled after Hawaii withdrew on December 23, following the recent rise in COVID-19 cases.
Hawaii will not play in the Hawaii Bowl.
— Barrett Sallee (@BarrettSallee) December 24, 2021
"The recent surge in COVID-19 cases has forced us to not participate in the game. We are disappointed for our players, coaches, and fans.”- Athletics Director David Matlin.
Memphis vs Hawaii odds
This game has seen a lot of action. Memphis opened -4.5 but has been bet all the way up to -8.5. The Under also took a lot of money, dropping the total from 61 to 56.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Memphis vs Hawaii predictions
Predictions made on 12/20/2021 at 7:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Memphis vs Hawaii game info
• Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
• Date: Friday, December 24, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Memphis vs Hawaii betting preview
Key injuries
Memphis: Brandon Thomas RB (Questionable), John Cartwright DL (Questionable), Calvin Austin III WR (Out), Kylan Watkins RB (Out), Grant Gunnell QB (Out).
Hawaii: None reported.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Hawaii is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Memphis vs. Hawaii.
Memphis vs Hawaii picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Hawaii should consider itself fortunate to be bowling. The only team with a losing record to qualify for a bowl, the Rainbow Warriors were granted a home bowl game on Christmas Eve after another bowl game was added due to too many teams qualifying.
Two of Hawaii's wins came against New Mexico State (yes, they were able to schedule one of the worst teams in the country twice in one season) and another came over Portland State. The defense is allowing 41 more yards per game than the offense is gaining. Players may just be wishing for the season to be over at this point, as their inner turmoil and angst toward coach Todd Graham have gotten to the point where players are giving quotes that he has “killed our love and passion for football”.
Hawaii will be short-handed, as starting quarterback Chevan Cordiero and starting running back Dae Dae Hunter both entered the transfer portal following the conclusion of the regular season. A sub-.500 team with inner turmoil, coaching issues, and a depleted offense? We’re looking to fade Hawaii.
Freshman Brayden Schager is expected to get the start in lieu of Cordiero. Seeing limited time this season, Schager managed just 5.7 yards per attempt while tossing 2 TDs and 5 INTs. Compare those numbers with Memphis’s Seth Henigan (3,322 yards, 8.5 YPA, 25 TDs), and it's apparent the Tigers will have a substantial quarterback edge. Hawaii’s 125th-ranked pass defense is allowing nearly 300 yards per game, which is bad news against this dangerous Tigers passing attack checking in at 17th in the country.
Hawaii will struggle to get stops and will be short-handed offensively. We’re laying the points with Memphis.
Prediction: Memphis -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Henigan has been impressive all season, and he had one of the most dynamic weapons in the country at his disposal in Calvin Austin III (1,218 scrimmage yards, 9 TDs). However, he won’t have the luxury of looking Austin’s way during the Hawaii Bowl, as the star receiver opted out to focus on the NFL Draft. That’s a significant loss. The Tigers have several backup options (Sean Dykes, Jason Ivory) who will give this moribund Hawaii secondary fits, but none of them strike the same fear into opposing defenses as Austin.
While we mostly expect the Tigers to hold up their end of the bargain in the scoring department, things are a little dicier on the Hawaii side. The offense has been maddeningly inconsistent and now must break in new faces after key pieces transferred away. Even if Memphis gets to 40 points, we can’t say with any confidence that Hawaii will move the ball offensively. This total is still high enough that we’ll look toward the Under given Hawaii’s uncertainty offensively.
Prediction: Under 56.5 (-110)
Best bet
A case can be made that the only advantage Hawaii has in this matchup is having home-field. There’s a significant talent mismatch between these teams, and Memphis has proven to be a higher-quality team throughout the season. Expect Henigan and company to light up the scoreboard on Christmas Eve.
Pick: Memphis -8.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Memphis vs. Hawaii picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
