The Memphis Tigers will travel to Orlando, Florida to take on the UCF Knights on Friday Night in a game that will be featured on ESPN2 at 7:00 p.m. ET at the Bounce House.
It’s been a rough last four weeks for the UCF Knights without their star quarterback Dillion Gabriel. There’s a good chance Gabriel could return before the season ends but he won’t be back any time soon for this game against Memphis.
Meanwhile, Memphis ended a three-game losing streak with a win over Navy, at home, and will look to start a winning streak, on the road, against UCF.
Despite Gabriel’s absence, do the Knights have what it takes to defeat the Tigers at home? Here are our picks and predictions for Memphis vs UCF.
Memphis vs UCF odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The UCF Knights opened earlier this season as a -7.5 point favorite. However, after starting the season 3-3, sharps have moved the line to a near pick-em at -1 for UCF.
The total for this game has shifted from 62.5 to 63. You can still get 62.5 at -110 odds as select sportsbooks.
Memphis vs UCF picks
Picks made on 10/19/2021 at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Memphis vs UCF game info
• Location: Bounce House, Orlando, FL
• Date: Friday, October 22, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Memphis vs UCF betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Memphis: Rodrigues Clark RB (Questionable), Seth Henigan QB (Probable), Thomas Pickens LB (Questionable), Gabriel Rogers RB (Questionable)
UCF: Dillon Gabriel QB (Out), Ricky Barber DL (Questionable), Kalia Davis DL (Questionable), Dionte Marks WR (Questionable)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Memphis vs. UCF.
Memphis vs UCF predictions
UCF ML (-115)
The UCF Knights struggled against Cincinnati last week, on the road, 56-21, in a game where nobody expected UCF to win. The Bearcats are currently ranked second in the nation and continue to assert its dominance in the American Athletic Conference.
Despite that loss, UCF has been sticking around in every single game this year. When UCF lost Gabriel to a collarbone, the Knights lost to Louisville 42-35 on the road. The Knights then took a 34-30 loss to Navy on the road but responded with a home win over East Carolina only to get smacked around by Cincinnati last week.
It’s been a tough schedule for UCF, with three road games in their last four games. Playing at the Bounce House is just what the Knights needed. The offense still averages 34.2 points per game and 440.2 yards per game. The offense isn’t as elite as they were with Gabriel but freshman quarterback Mikey Keene will continue to improve as the season progresses.
Defensively, UCF has looked very solid, despite allowing 32.2 points per game. They’ve held offenses to just 207.5 yards per game passing and have a solid secondary. With solid coverage, comes solid pass rush and that pass rush should be able to find ways to get to Memphis’ quarterback in Seth Henigan, who hasn’t been given great protection from his offensive line.
The Tigers are scoring 36.1 points per game and allowing 30.4 points per game. The offense is explosive but could be better with a better offensive line. Henigan has thrown for 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions including 2,153 yards this season. He’s got plenty of weapons and an offense that is elite when it comes to playmaking.
The defense for Memphis, like UCF, is a bit underrated. While they’ve allowed plenty of points, the defense hasn’t been all that bad and have coverage that can put together stops despite allowing 277.3 yards per game passing.
At the end of the day, this game will be a shootout. But I like UCF’s pass rush to make some noise against Memphis’ offensive line and believe they can force a couple more turnovers, which eventually will lead to a UCF victory.
Under 63 (-110)
Both of these offenses are absolutely fantastic. They’re both averaging over 34 points per game and nearly five touchdowns per game. All that sounds great but these two defenses are better than the box score gives them credit for.
To win an over 63, you need both teams to score more than 31 points. Against these defenses, you’ll need everything to go right to achieve this. I like UCF to earn some stops with its defensive line but I won’t discredit how great Memphis can be in coverage. They’ve also done well converting on tackles and haven’t missed many, especially for how many snaps that defense has played this season.
Grab the under in this game. Everything needs to go right for this game to go over the total.
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