Miami (Ohio) vs Toledo Odds, Picks, and Predictions: MAC Championship

After turning in two of the most impressive seasons in recent MAC history, Toledo and Miami (OH) will square off in Detroit for the MAC Championship this afternoon. With the Rockets still technically in contention for a New Year's Six Bowl bid, there's plenty at stake in the latest college football odds. 

Defense should be the name of the game in this one, and despite Toledo’s offense having some special moments this season, nothing gets the blood pumping like a low-scoring MACtion match that hits the Under.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Miami (OH) vs. Toledo on December 2.

Miami (Ohio) vs Toledo best odds

Miami (Ohio) vs Toledo picks and predictions

The biggest difference in this game is the fact that the Miami (OH) RedHawks have brought very little to the field in terms of offense since starting quarterback Brett Gabbert was lost for the season in October.

Gabbert’s leg injury occurred the first time they played the Toledo Rockets, and Miami (OH)’s been squeaking by in low-scoring games ever since. Since losing Gabbert, the RedHawks have scored more than 23 points just once.

Offensive coordinator Pat Welsh’s unit is 107th in EPA per play, 71st in EPA per pass, and 122nd in EPA per rush. The offense is scoring 27.2 points per game this season, and that drops to 23.7 per game against MAC opponents.

Miami (OH) is putting up just 333 total yards per game on offense, 18th worst in the Group of Five. Backup quarterback Aveon Smith has struggled to find any consistency through the air with just 117.2 passing yards per game in his four starts, and while his running ability is a plus, Toledo can key in on stopping it.

Under defensive coordinator Vince Kehres, the Rockets rank 28th in EPA per play on defense and 11th in EPA per pass. With potential first-round cornerback Quinyon Mitchell leading the secondary, Toledo is giving up only 189.1 passing yards per game. They’ve also gotten a boost from their pass rush, with a whopping 34 sacks on the season.

Allowing only 20.4 points per game, the Rockets have given up more than 23 points just once in their last six games. While their offense has been the big difference maker in the MAC, the defense has been one of the best in the Group of Five by allowing just 332.1 yards per game.

With All-MAC defensive backs Mitchell and Maxen Hook protecting the backend and a front seven led by All-MAC defenders Judge Culpepper and Dallas Gant, the Rockets will be able to hone in on RedHawks running back Rashad Amos.

Toledo's favorable matchup against a limited Miami (OH) offense will ultimately prevent its own offense from surpassing the Under. Spearheaded by All-MAC quarterback Dequan Finn and MAC Offensive Player of the Year Peny Boone, the Rockets have maintained an average of 35.2 ppg this season.

Their ground game, led by Boone and complemented by Finn and Jacquez Stuart, has been instrumental in racking up yards and keeping the clock ticking. However, they've faced challenges from robust MAC defenses that have proven more adept at slowing them down.

Under the guidance of MAC Defensive Player of the Year Matt Salopek, Miami (OH) succeeded in holding Toledo to just 21 points in its previous encounter. Despite limited support from the offense, defensive coordinator Bill Brechin has steered the RedHawks to impressive rankings, standing 26th in EPA per play, 22nd in EPA per pass, and 44th in EPA per rush.

Maintaining the eighth-best record in the country, they limit opponents to just 16.3 points per game and 322.2 yards per game. With Salopek and linebacker Ty Wise excelling in thwarting the run game and a formidable pass rush led by Buran Ugwu and Caiden Woullard, the RedHawks present a formidable challenge for the Rockets.

My best bet: Under 44 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Miami (Ohio) vs Toledo same-game parlay

Under 44.5

Toledo -8.5

Peny Boone anytime touchdown 

+425 at bet365

The Rockets have been simply too good this season, with their lone loss coming in a 30-28 heartbreaker against Illinois in Week 1. They’re the most well-rounded team in the MAC, featuring a productive offense and a defensive unit that can shut down opponents.

Without Gabbert, Miami (OH) won’t be able to score enough points to cover… even in a game where Toledo will have its hands full with the RedHawks' mighty defense flying around. Expect Toledo to control the clock and ultimately wear the RedHawks defense down by running the ball with Boone.

The Maryland transfer is a 245-pound freight train at running back, and he has been the main catalyst for Toledo’s violent run game all season. Not only did Boone win MAC Offensive Player of the Year, but he led the conference in touchdowns with 16. He’s scored at least once in nine of 12 games this season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Miami (Ohio) vs Toledo spread and Over/Under analysis

The books have loved Toledo by more than a touchdown since the start, with some books opening with them as much as nine-point favorites at Ford Field. 

The Rockets are exactly .500 against the spread this season, going 6-6. On the other hand, the RedHawks boast a 9-3 record ATS. The only time they haven’t covered in MAC play was as 2.5-point underdogs against Toledo.

This total has been slowly dropping down to between 44 and 44.5 at most books after initially opening at 46.5. The Rockets are 7-5 to the Over this season but 4-4 to the O/U in MAC play. This marks their season's lowest total, surpassing the previous figure of 46.5 against Miami (OH) when the Under prevailed.

The RedHawks have been less trustworthy when betting the Over, cashing just five times this year. They’ve only hit the Over twice in their last eight games and are 6-2 to the Under in MAC play.

Miami (Ohio) vs Toledo betting trend to know

Miami (OH) has only hit the game total Over in four of its last 12 games (-4.80 Units / -36% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Miami (Ohio) vs Toledo.

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