Coming off two straight losses, including a blowout at home against the Washington Commanders, the Arizona Cardinals are in for a long afternoon against the San Francisco 49ers.
Even without Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers have shown flashes that they’ll again be a Super Bowl contender. I expect the run game to be the difference in my Cardinals vs. 49ers predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 6.
Cardinals vs 49ers prediction
My best bet
Jordan Mason 100+ rushing yards (+130 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Losing a player like Christian McCaffrey can derail most teams’ seasons, but the Shanahan family has a history of turning nobody running backs into stars. Mike and Kyle Shanahan know how to get the best out of any back, from Terrell Davis to Tatum Bell to Alfred Morris.
The latest beneficiary has been third-year undrafted running back Jordan Mason. The 25-year-old has already run for more yards this season (447) than he did as a senior at Georgia Tech (439) in 2021.
There have been no signs that Mason will slow down anytime soon, and with his rushing line set at just 84.5 with -133 odds on the Over, the alternate line is far more interesting. At this price, if Mason runs for 100-plus yards, a $10 bet pays a $13 profit.
And while 100 yards can seem like a lot for a back most people hadn't heard of until a month ago, he’s already topped 100 in three of four games. Mason’s averaging 111.8 rushing yards per game and is second in the league in rushing yards behind only Derrick Henry.
For as much as it has to do with Shanahan’s scheme and the San Francisco 49ers' offensive line, Mason has done his part, too. He leads the league in rushing yards after contact (268), missed tackles forced (21), and 10-plus-yard runs (13).
Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game in the NFL (146.5) and are just 27th in EPA per rush on defense. Last week, Arizona gave up 101 rushing yards to Brian Robinson Jr. — plus another 68 to Jeremy McNichols. The week before also saw David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combine for 188 on the ground.
This won’t be the week the Cardinals figure out their run defense.
Cardinals vs 49ers same-game parlay
Jordan Mason 100+ rushing yards
Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 4.5 receptions
James Conner Under 74.5 rushing yards and receiving yards
The 49ers are 7.5-point favorites, and it’s safe to assume Arizona will be playing from behind for much of the game. That’s been the situation Jonathan Gannon’s team has found itself in the last two weeks.
In those two losses to the Detroit Lions and Commanders, Marvin Harrison Jr. caught five passes apiece. With Kyler Murray sitting ninth in EPA per play among QBs and the Cardinals ranked seventh in EPA per dropback, the passing game will be key in this matchup.
That should take away from James Conner’s work on the ground. His rushing yards line is set at 58.5, so I’ve added in his receiving for an extra 16-yard buffer.
Conner has just three receptions for 19 yards over the last three games. He's only two games removed from rushing for just 17 yards against the Lions, a defense ranked 21st in EPA per play, compared to a 49ers team that enters Week 5 in the Top 10.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cardinals vs 49ers odds
Cardinals vs 49ers live odds
Cardinals vs 49ers opening odds
- Spread: Arizona +7 | San Francisco -7
- Moneyline: Arizona +300 | San Francisco -375
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Cardinals vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The 49ers opened as a 7-point favorite, with the line moving to San Francisco -7.5 as kickoff approaches.
- Both San Francisco and Arizona are 2-2 ATS this season.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 47.5 but has since come up to as high as 50.
- The 49ers and Cardinals are both 3-1 to the Over this season.
Cardinals vs 49ers betting trend to know
Arizona has only hit the moneyline in four of its last 20 games (-7.65 Units / -36% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Cardinals vs. 49ers.
Cardinals vs 49ers game info
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-6-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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