Miami (Ohio) vs UAB Prediction: Bahamas Bowl Odds and Picks

The Miami-Ohio Redhawks and UAB Blazers kick off the postseason in the HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl on Friday — the first-ever meeting between these two institutions on the gridiron. 

Miami’s offense improved down the stretch, posting 23.8 points per game in the final four outings, a nice improvement over its season average of 20.8 points per game, while UAB’s offense.

Will we get another high-scoring Bahamas Bowl between the MAC and Conference USA representatives? We’ll discuss in our college football picks and predictions for Miami-Ohio vs. UAB.

Miami (Ohio) vs UAB best odds

Miami (Ohio) vs UAB picks and predictions

Miami finished on a high note, winning three of its final four regular-season games, as a bowl trip looked unlikely in late October with a 3-5 record at one point.

The offense has struggled for most of the season, producing just 309.3 total yards per game to rank No. 122 overall, while going for just 165.8 passing yards per contest. Once QB Brett Gabbert went down to injury, Aveon Smith stepped in and was a solid option for Miami.

Smith is more of a dual-threat option, something we haven’t seen from Miami in quite some time. He completed just 48.4% of his pass attempts, which is quite dreadful. But he was good for 1,137 passing yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions, while running for a team-high 503 yards and six touchdowns. That’s not quite Travis Prentice territory, former Miami great tailback, but it’s pretty good for parts of nine games.

Smith helped the team to 21 or more points in three of the final four regular-season games, which was above the team’s season average. It might not have been pretty all the time, but he has injected excitement into the offense in Oxford, especially with his legs.

Speaking of running, we're sorry if you were looking forward to seeing UAB's Dewayne McBride — one of the most talented tailbacks that most of the nation hasn’t heard about — in action. He led the Blazers with 1,710 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns this year, but it was announced Thursday that he will not participate in the game.

Despite the massive loss, the Blazers (who were fifth in the nation in rushing) will still have a dangerous run game from leaning on junior Jermaine Brown Jr., who rushed for 832 yards and 5.9 yards per carry this season. 

Look for points, and plenty of them, in Nassau. Miami’s offense has been better than the sloth-like pace we saw during the non-conference portion of the schedule to start. UAB has been playing with a ton of offensive confidence, and Miami won’t have much success shutting down the nation’s leading rusher.

My best bet: Over 44.5 (-110 at bet365)

Miami (Ohio) vs UAB spread analysis

If you like Miami and the points, you’ll feel very good about a chunk of the trends which seem to point in its favor.

The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their past four bowl appearances, which is nice. The Redhawks are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in the past seven neutral-site games, which makes a bettor feel nice and tingly inside. Of course, Miami is also 7-15 ATS in the past 22 games outside of the conference, while going 0-4 ATS in the past four following a straight-up win.

The Blazers, however, failed to cover in six of the final seven games to close out the regular season, so laying double digits seems like an impossibly high number.

UAB is 4-0 ATS in the past four neutral-site games, so that cancels about Miami’s impressive trend number above. The Blazers have failed to cover in five straight after a straight-up win, and they’re just 1-4 ATS in the past five after a non-cover, too.

As mentioned above, I like the total a heck of a lot more than the line. If I had to make a pick, I’d take Miami and the points. But if it were a confidence pool, I’d take Miami with a low amount of points allocated to them.

Miami (Ohio) vs UAB Over/Under analysis

Miami heads into bowl season with the Under dominating their trends. It’s all Under all the time for Miami.

The Under went 7-2 in the final nine games of the regular season, while going 6-1 in the past seven outside of the MAC. And for historical purposes, the Under is also 4-1 in its past five bowl games, while Miami has hit the Under is eight of the past 10 neutral-site affairs.

But the Over was 4-0 in the final four for UAB, while going 3-1-1 in its past five bowl appearances. I think Smith lights it up for Miami on offense, while UAB still finds success on the ground, even without McBride, giving us a healthy amount of points approaching 50.

In-play microbetting trends for UAB vs Miami (Ohio)

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

• DraftKings Sportsbook
• bet365 Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

UAB

Offensive score Yes: 10/28 (35.7%)
Offensive score No: 18/28 (64.3%)

Punts: 10/28 (35.7%)
TDs: 5/28 (17.9%)
FG attempts: 5/28 (17.9%)
TOs: 8/28 (28.5%)

Miami (Ohio)

Offensive score Yes: 9/34 (26.5%)
Offensive score No: 25/34 (73.5%)

Punts: 16/34 (47.1%)
TDs: 5/34 (14.7%)
FG attempts: 4/34 (11.8%)
TOs: 9/34 (26.4%)

Miami (OH) had three drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Miami (Ohio) vs UAB betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in UAB’s past four games overall, and 3-1-1 in its past five bowl appearances. Find more NCAA betting trends for Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB.

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