College GameDay is headed for Berkeley, CA as Mario Cristobal’s Miami Hurricanes (5-0) look to stay undefeated and in the playoff hunt as they face Justin Wilcox and the California Golden Bears (3-1) in Week 6.
Miami narrowly survived Virginia Tech a week ago with a last-second victory, and while that close call could be seen as a sign of mortality, I think it might have been just a simple bump in the road for one of the country’s most dominant teams.
Read on for my Miami vs. California predictions and early college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Miami vs California predictions
Early spread lean
Miami -12.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
There will likely be a lot of chatter in the college football betting space this week about how close of a call the Miami Hurricanes had last week when they needed a replay review to overturn Virginia Tech’s Hail Mary with 0:00 on the clock to stay undefeated.
It’s all true. What’s also true is that Miami has been supremely impressive this season, outscoring opponents by 34.4 ppg.
The Hurricanes have one of the country’s best offenses led by Heisman odds candidate Cam Ward at quarterback, ranking fourth in EPA per play and ninth in success rate. The defense hasn’t been too shabby (13th in EPA per play), making this a well-rounded squad that is PFF’s highest-graded team in the country.
Justin Wilcox’s California Golden Bears have a signature victory this season with a 21-14 win over Auburn in Jordan-Hare. However, that result doesn’t feel very repeatable as the Bears were +5 in turnover margin in that game.
Their lone other game against a Power Conference team resulted in an uninspiring 14-9 loss to Florida State — the Seminoles’ only win of the season in five tries. Cal’s underlying metrics leave much to be desired as the offense checks in at 112th in EPA per play while the defense is 65th in success rate.
Miami should dominate the trenches in this Week 6 tilt, easing any concern about playing on the road across the country. The Hurricanes have a beastly offensive line (ninth in front-seven havoc, 17th in stuff rate, second in power success rate) while Cal’s defense checks in at 94th in line yards, 102nd in stuff rate, and dead-last (134th) in power success rate.
On the flip side, Cal’s offensive line has significantly regressed from a season ago and is allowing more havoc than any other unit in the country. Miami has a fearsome defensive front (17th in front seven havoc, averaging 8.0 tackles for loss per game) and should live in the backfield.
Miami holds too many advantages for me to avoid taking the favorite against the spread.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 55.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I’ve targeted a few Cal Unders this season and have been happy with the results as the Bears are 0-4 O/U. That being said, this is not one of those spots. I’m buying the Over for Week 6’s matchup against a high-powered Miami offense.
The Shannon Dawson offense has been fully unleashed in Miami Gardens as the Hurricanes are throwing the ball all over the yard, ranking 12th in pass rate while averaging 36.2 attempts per game. They’ve been doing so with deadly effectiveness (third in EPA per pass, sixth in passing success rate), so there’s no reason to expect any deviation from the standard operating procedure in Week 6.
Cam Ward’s numbers are truly absurd. The Washington State transfer is completing 70.2% of his passes for 11.1 yards per attempt while averaging 356.4 passing yards per game. He’s tossed 18 touchdowns to just four interceptions and there’s a reason why he’s in the Heisman conversation, trailing only Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart in PFF’s passing grade (91.4).
Speaking of the Heisman, Miami seems hell-bent on having Ward rack up stats to have his name in the discussion for that illustrious award. That means I don’t expect them to step off the gas much at all this season, and especially in this matchup.
On the flip side, Miami’s greatest vulnerability is in the secondary. The Hurricanes have performed decently from a statistical standpoint so far but I expect some regression as the season goes along for what was considered the team’s biggest question mark heading into the season. They haven’t played a true passing team yet this year, and still two run-first quarterbacks combined for 491 passing yards in the last two weeks against this defense.
The Hurricanes have also shown a weakness for allowing chunk plays on the ground, ranking 127th in rushing explosiveness. Cal has a home-run threat in the backfield as Jaydn Ott is one of the nation’s best backs. Behind him, Haivian Thomas is averaging 7.0 yards per carry while Kadarius Calloway has proved to be one of the most explosive rushers in the country throughout his career despite earning minimal touches this season.
Miami should have yet another productive day at the office offensively, while it’d be a surprise if Cal didn’t chip in some points to contribute to the total.
Miami vs California live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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