Michael Penix Jr. Odds and CFP National Championship Game Props: When You Wash Upon a Star

Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. may not have won the Heisman Trophy, but he has a chance to not only prove he’s the best quarterback in the country but win college football’s biggest prize all at once when he takes the field in the College Football Playoff National Championship tonight at NRG Stadium in Houston.

Penix put up some eye-popping numbers this college football season, but will he be able to do so against an elite Michigan defense? The college football odds have Washington as underdogs, so it won’t be easy, but Penix and the Huskies have been doubted all season long.

I deep dive into the Michael Penix Jr. odds and bring you my best free college football picks for his title game props. And for more analysis check out my CFP National Championship Game picks and predictions.  

Michael Penix Jr prop picks

• Under 0.5 interceptions (+175) Profit boost available
• Under 0.5 interceptions/Over 1.5 TD passes/Rome Odunze Over 89.5 receiving yards (+500) No-sweat promo available

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Michael Penix Jr. prop pick

Under 0.5 interceptions (+175)

It has been a crazy season for Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington Huskies. The Heisman Trophy runner-up finished the year throwing for 4,218 yards with 33 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. He then added another 430 yards and two scores in the win over Texas in the Sugar Bowl.

But it won’t be that easy against this ferocious Michigan front seven. The Wolverines rank ninth in defensive success rate, seventh in defensive havoc, and second in passing yards allowed per game at just 150 per contest.

That said, I’m still really tempted to take the Over on Penix’s 291.5 passing yards. He's landed below this number just four times in his 14 games played this season.

And while Michigan doesn’t give up many passing yards, the Wolverines haven’t played too many, if any at all, teams that can air the ball out like Washington.

More importantly, though, one of the big reasons Big Blue was able to find success against Alabama in the Rose Bowl was thanks to all the pressure they were able to generate against Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide passing attack, sacking him six times. I’m not so sure they will be able to do the same against the Joe Moore-winning offensive line for the Huskies.

Yes, Penix has had some issues when pressured, but it just hasn’t happened much this season. His O-line has done an excellent job of keeping its star QB upright and able to move through his progressions down the field.

Penix has been sacked just 11 times all season and wasn’t sacked once in their Sugar Bowl win over Texas — by a Longhorns defensive line that had multiple future NFLers on it.

I do think Penix can hit that 300-yard mark for the 11^th time, but at the same time, you have to respect this Michigan defense. So, instead of taking Penix to go Over 291.5 passing yards at -115, let’s bet on his O-line to keep him clean, allowing him to make good decisions with the football. This means we’re taking the Under 0.5 interceptions thrown from Penix at a much nicer +175.

As noted, Penix has thrown just nine picks all season and put up a zero in the interception column six times. If those Huskies linemen can consistently give Penix time to work in the pocket, he’ll stay mistake-free in this National Championship Game. 

Prop: Michael Penix Jr. Under 0.5 interceptions (+175 at DraftKings) Profit boost available

Michael Penix Jr same-game parlay

Penix Jr. Under 0.5 INT

Penix Jr. Over 1.5 TD passes

Rome Odunze Over 89.5 receiving yards

No-sweat promo available

+500 at DraftKings

The Michael Penix Jr. same-game parlay for the CFP National Championship Game will be a fun one. Let’s start it off with our Penix best bet, and next, look at Penix's touchdown passes. For many of the same reasons I like him to hit the Under on his interceptions thrown prop, I like him to toss a couple of touchdown passes as well. 

Pennix has thrown 35 touchdown passes over 14 games this season. But he slowed down considerably down the stretch, throwing exactly two TD strikes in five of his last six games. In the other (the Pac-12 Championship Game), he threw just one.

While Michigan hasn’t conceded many touchdown passes this season, the Wolverines allowed two scores through the air in each game against arguably its only two other opponents with, we'll say, decent passing games (Maryland and Ohio State).

If this number were at 2.5, I would contemplate the Under considering Penix’s current trend and the matchup against Michigan. But at 1.5, I’m confident he hits the Over. 

Something else that happened to Michigan in that Ohio State game: Marvin Harrison Jr. got his. The likely Top-5 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft burned the Wolverines' secondary for 118 yards and a score. Now, Harrison is an elite receiver. But so too is Washington’s Rome Odunze.

Odunze has topped 100 yards in 10 of his 14 games this season, including in the Huskies' biggest games, against the toughest defenses (Oregon x2, Utah, Oregon State, and Texas). Let’s close this SGP out by adding Penix finding his favorite target enough to go Over his receiving yards prop of 89.5.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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