Michigan State vs Iowa Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Fragile Offenses

While there may be more tantalizing college football odds to take interest in this Saturday, Michigan State heading to Kinnick Stadium to scrap it out with Iowa will probably have the most memes made about it.

These are two of the worst offenses in the Power Five, heck, in all of college football, and that’s the real reason to watch. With the firing of Mel Tucker being made official this week in East Lansing and the Hawkeyes coming off a shutout loss to Penn State, it’s not hyperbole to say this game total could end up being under 10 total points.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Iowa on Saturday, September 30.

Michigan State vs Iowa best odds

Michigan State vs Iowa picks and predictions

There is plenty of fun to be poked about just how bad these offenses are, and there’s merit to that, which is reflected in the preposterously low game total of 36.5, but these defenses are no joke.

Having a game total that low and feeling comfortable taking the Under only happens when there’s a combination of horrific offense and brilliant defense, which makes this the perfect Under game this Saturday.

Defensively, Michigan State is 47th in the country in EPA per play, which may not be dominant, but what they do well will work against Iowa. The Spartans have their issues slowing the passing game, which is where they’ve been dinged this season and why they’re 70th in EPA per pass.

Yet, that shouldn’t be a major concern because Iowa has been the worst passing attack in the Power Five the last few years and continues to be this season. The Hawkeyes rank 118th in EPA per pass on offense and even bringing in Cade McNamara, a transfer from Michigan, hasn’t helped whatsoever. 

McNamara has yet to throw for even 200 yards in a game. His 191-yard performance against Utah State was by far his best and last week against Penn State he threw for just 42 yards while completing 35.7% of his throws in a rainy game. McNamara is completing just 50.6% of his passes on the season and averaging 114.75 passing yards per game.

Simply put, Iowa is no threat to throw the football on offense, which is why Michigan State’s defense is in a great spot. The Spartans are 25th in the country in EPA per rush on defense and should be able to keep the Iowa rushing attack at bay. The Hawkeyes rushing attack isn’t much to get excited about anyway, ranking 115th in EPA per rush with teams keying in on it; they’re averaging just 118.5 yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

Iowa currently ranks 126th in the country in EPA per play on offense, but on the flip side, it will be even uglier with the combo of Sparty’s non-existent offense and the Hawkeyes dominance on defense.

Michigan State is 101st in EPA per play on offense this season and just as ineffective running the ball (98th in EPA per rush) as throwing it (93rd in EPA per pass). Quarterback Noah Kim padded his stats against two non-Power Five opponents, but is averaging just 163 passing yards per game while completing 47% of his passes with one touchdown to three interceptions in two games against Washington and Maryland.

Despite running back Nate Carter having some solid moments for the Spartans, the run game hasn’t looked good against the Power Five. As a team, Michigan State is averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season.

That can’t give Spartan faithful much hope to score against an Iowa defense that’s 35th in EPA per play, 37th in EPA per pass, and 41st in EPA per rush. They’ve held opponents to just 313.8 yards per game this season and have limited explosive plays in the run game, keeping opponents to just 3.6 per rush. 

That’s not to mention arguably Iowa’s best weapon, their punter Tory Taylor. Taylor has been one of the best punters in the country for four seasons and will soon be booming punts in the NFL.

Despite the ugly conditions against Penn State last week, Taylor averaged 52.3 per punt on seven punts and landed four inside the 20-yard line.

My best bet: Under 36.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Michigan State vs Iowa same-game parlay

Under 36.5

Iowa -12.5

+264 at bet365

Nobody in the country is better at winning games without scoring many points on offense than Kirk Ferentz’s Hawkeyes.

In the last five seasons (2019-2023), Iowa has gone 37-15 and has only ranked in the Top 85 in the country in points per game once.

Covering 12.5 points isn’t easy when you don’t score, but Iowa managed to go 8-5 against the spread last season despite scoring 17.7 points per game, 123rd in the country.

Iowa wins ugly and with the way Michigan State has fallen apart this season, there will be opportunities to force turnovers and score points for the Hawkeyes. Iowa cornerback, and potential first-round pick, Cooper DeJean scored three touchdowns himself last season.

Iowa kicker Drew Stevens is also one of the best in the country having never missed a PAT and connecting on 87% of his field goals in his career.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan State vs Iowa spread and Over/Under analysis

After opening with Iowa between 8.5 and 12-point favorites, most books have continued to shift the Hawkeyes’ way after the Tucker news. Iowa is -12.5 pretty much everywhere.

Ferentz’s group has gone 2-2 against the spread this season, covering against Iowa State and Western Michigan, but falling short against Utah State and Penn State.

The Spartans also bring a 2-2 record against the spread to this game but are 0-2 since the Tucker scandal broke.

The game total opened low, between 36 and 37, and remains low with most books offering it at 36.5. 

It’s hard to take the Over in a game that features Iowa, they’ve hit the game total Under in nine of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI).

Michigan State vs Iowa betting trend to know

Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Michigan State vs Iowa.

Michigan State vs Iowa game info

Michigan State vs Iowa latest injuries

Michigan State vs Iowa weather

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