Big Ten rivals face off at Ann Arbor this weekend, with the Michigan State Spartans taking on the Michigan Wolverines for the Paul Bunyan – Governor of Michigan Trophy.
Michigan is currently No. 13 in the AP Top 25 after dismantling Minnesota 49-24 in their season opener.
College football betting odds have the Wolverines installed as 25-point favorites against a Michigan State program that started their season off on the wrong foot with a 38-27 loss against lowly Rutgers.
We break down the NCAA football odds with our free picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Michigan on Saturday, October 31, with kickoff at noon ET.
Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines betting preview
Weather
It's expected to be a cool and sunny afternoon at The Big House in Ann Arbour, with temperatures between 26 and 47 degrees and winds reaching up to 10.5 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Michigan State: Tre Mosley WR (Questionable), Jack Camper (Questionable), Luke Campbell G (Questionable), CJ Hayes WR (Out), Jordan Reid OT (Out).
Michigan: Daxton Hill DB (Probable), Quinn Nordin K (Questionable), Nick Eubanks TE (Questionable), Dylan McCaffrey QB (Out), Ambry Thomas CB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Spartans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Michigan State vs. Michigan.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
It was expected to be a rebuilding year for Spartans football under new head coach Mel Tucker and in the first game of the season, it certainly looked like it. Michigan State lost by 11 points to a Rutgers team that finished at the bottom of the Big Ten standings in 2019, and they did it in ugly fashion—turning the ball over seven times!
Junior quarterback Rocky Lombardi looks like the Spartans best option under center but his play has been inconsistent, to say the least. And the Spartans defense, which had been their strength over the last few years, needs to replace seven of their top ten tacklers from a year ago.
The Wolverines are coming off an impressive 25-point victory against a quality Minnesota team. New starting QB Joe Milton didn't look like a world-beater, but he's got a cannon for an arm and will stretch the field so that Michigan's running back duo of Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins can pile up yards on the ground.
The two running backs combined for 1,398 rushing yards as a freshman and sophomore a year ago, and gashed the Golden Gophers for 152 yards and three touchdowns on just 10 carries last week.
The Wolverines also look dangerous on the defensive side of the ball, with a unit that was 10th in the nation in yards allowed against FBS opponents in 2019 and returns plenty of talent. Look for them to shut down the Spartans and cover this spread.
PREDICTION: Michigan -25 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Wolverines should once again have one of the best stop units in the nation, thanks to a terrific defensive line filled with experienced upperclassmen like Kwity Paye, Aidan Hutchinson and Carlo Kemp.
Michigan's secondary, led by super sophomore and former five-star recruit Daxton Hill, should also be strong again while senior Josh Ross and the linebacker corps will fly around the field.
The Spartans have lots of new faces on defense but they generally do an excellent job of replenishing talent on that side of the ball. While MSU gave up 38 points to Rutgers last week, the blame for that performance falls squarely on the shoulders of their offense. Their defense actually held the Scarlet Knights to 170 yards through the air and allowed just 2.6 yards per carry.
With Michigan State's usually-reliable defense and shaky offense, the Spartans have gone 9-1 to the Under in their last 10 games as an underdog. Bank on that hitting again on Saturday.
PREDICTION: Under 53.5 (-110)
Prop Pick
When these programs faced off in Ann Arbor last season, Michigan cruised to a 44-10 win, but the Spartans actually scored the first points of the game when they crossed the goal line late in the first quarter.
In the Wolverines beatdown of the Golden Gophers last week, they also surrendered the first score when Tanner Morgan threw for a touchdown on the very first drive of the game.
There's definitely value at +333 in backing the Spartans to open the scoring on Saturday with a TD.
PREDICTION: First score method - Michigan State touchdown (+333)
Michigan State vs Michigan betting card
- Michigan -25 (-110)
- Under 53.5 (-110)
- First score method - Michigan State touchdown (+333)
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