The Washington Huskies have started the year red hot, ranking third in total offense en route to a 2-0 record.
The Michigan State Spartans are also 2-0 after wins over Western Michigan and Akron. However, both programs will face their first real test on Saturday at Husky Stadium.
Who comes out on top? Continue reading for college football picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Washington on September 17.
Michigan State vs Washington best odds
Michigan State vs Washington picks and predictions
When Kalen DeBoer was hired as Washington’s head coach last year, it was expected that Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. would leave the Hoosiers and reunite with his IU offensive coordinator.
Penix has so far thrived for the Huskies this season. In two games, he has thrown for 337 yards and 345 yards. Granted, it was against Kent State and Portland State but there is no reason he can’t have similar numbers against Michigan State this Saturday.
The weapons he has at his disposal are a good place to start. Penix has a multitude of pass catchers, including Jalen McMillan, Rome Odunze, Taj Davis, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Giles Jackson, all of whom are averaging 15 yards or more per catch.
The second reason is that Penix has previously had success against the Spartans. In 2019 when he was at Indiana, Penix had 286 yards and three touchdowns. The following season, he threw for 320 yards and two scores.
Finally, Michigan State's secondary is suspect. Last year, they were dead last in passing yards allowed with 337.7 per game. MSU did, however, get a huge upgrade in the secondary with Georgia transfer Ameer Speed. The cornerback will definitely provide the team with much-needed pass defense and Spartans head coach Mel Tucker certainly likes what he has seen so far.
“I’ve always been impressed with his skillset and what he can do and his size,” Tucker said of Speed last month. “I’m really excited to continue to work with him, kind of finish what we started with him.”
One crucial player that MSU might be missing on Saturday is safety Xavier Henderson. He was injured during the team’s win over Western Michigan and is not expected to play on Saturday.
In the two games Michigan State has played this year, the opposing quarterbacks had success against them. Jack Salopek of Western Michigan threw for 193 yards and two Akron quarterbacks combined for 203 yards.
Penix is way better than those signal callers, which is why I'm backing him to go Over his passing total of 272.5 on Saturday.
My best bet: Michael Penix Jr. Over 272.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
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Michigan State vs Washington betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
Both Michigan State and Washington won its first two games, but it was against inferior competition. They did, however, cover large point spreads in each of those four games.
Saturday is going to be the first real test for MSU and Washington. The Huskies are favored by 3.5 points after opening at -3.
For the Spartans to pull off the upset, they are going to have to get to Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The senior transfer from Indiana has faced MSU twice in his career and piled up yards in both games.
Against a suspect secondary, Penix will be able to pass to a plethora of dangerous receivers. The Spartans defense is going to have to put pressure on him to stop him from moving the ball downfield at will.
The only problem with that is Penix is very mobile. If he can’t hurt you through the air, his legs can do the damage. In his first game this season, he was forced out of the pocket four times and gained 27 yards, a 6.8 per rush average.
The Spartans are also going to need a standout game from their quarterback Payton Thorne. Thorne has played two inferior teams and could only complete 58% of his passes. He also had three interceptions. They won’t have the luxury of a subpar performance from Thorne if they want to leave victorious.
Over/Under analysis
This game shot up after its opening total of 47.5 was posted. It's now at 56.5 at most sportsbooks.
Both Michigan State and Washington have high-powered offenses that scored at will in its first two games. The Huskies scored 45 and 52 points in their first two games, easily hitting the Over.
The Spartans also managed big points, scoring 35 and 52 in their two games. But unlike the Huskies, both of those games stayed Under the total.
Seeing the total at 47.5 would have been a prime opportunity to take the Over. Now at 56.5, however, it becomes much more of a sweat.
The Over is 4-0 in the Huskies' last four games and 4-0-1 in their last five games. The Spartans are 5-1 on the Under in their last six road games and 4-1 overall.
This bet will all come down to who controls the tempo of the game, which I believe will be Washington. Take the Over and jostle the nerves a bit — it should pay off at the end of the game.
Michigan State vs Washington game info
• Location: Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Michigan State vs Washington key injuries
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Michigan State vs Washington weather
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Michigan State vs Washington betting trend to know
Michael Penix Jr. has faced Michigan State twice in his career and thrown for more than 280 yards both times. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan State vs. Washington.
