The Michigan Wolverines will look to avoid a second straight road loss on Saturday when they visit the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium for a Big Ten clash.
Illinois (5-1) has flown slightly under the radar this season, but I think it has what it takes to beat the Wolverines (4-2) at home, as I’ll show in my Michigan vs Illinois predictions below.
Read on to see how I think you should be leaning if you’re looking to bet this game ahead of time in my early college football picks for Saturday, October 19.
Michigan vs Illinois predictions
Early spread lean
Illinois +1.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Michigan Wolverines haven't exactly fallen off a cliff in 2024, but this is not the same team that won a national championship last season. The Wolverines will need to step up their play if they even want to contend for a playoff spot, something that looks much less likely after a 27-17 loss to the Washington Huskies in their last outing.
Michigan has serious problems at the quarterback position. Davis Warren, Alex Orji, and Jack Tuttle have all gotten time behind center, but none have stood out as appealing options for the Wolverines. Overall, Michigan ranks a shocking 133rd in the nation in yards per passing attempt. Kalel Millings has been an excellent option on the ground, but the one-dimensional offense isn’t getting the job done, averaging just 23.5 points per game.
That’s going to leave the Wolverines with a tough task against an Illinois Fighting Illini team that’s allowing 20 ppg on the year — a number that would be much better if not for the inexplicable 50-49 win over the Purdue Boilermakers last weekend.
The Penn State Nittany Lions only put up 21 points against Illinois, and Nebraska only managed 24. The Illini are more than capable of containing the Wolverines.
The only question is how much Illinois will be able to score against a stout Michigan defense. The Wolverines have been almost impenetrable on the ground, but are more vulnerable in the passing game where opponents are averaging 6.4 yards per attempt. That’s not a bad mark at all, but Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer – who has thrown for 14 touchdowns against just a single interception on the year – doesn’t need much of an opening to do damage against opposing secondaries.
While this should be a close game, I’m surprised to see Illinois as a home underdog in this matchup. My early lean is towards Illinois and the points.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 43.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Two teams that have played excellent defensively but are unremarkable when it comes to moving the ball? That’s right everyone: we have another classic Big Ten matchup on our hands this weekend.
Neither of these teams looks like the 2023 Iowa Hawkeyes, but they’ve both shown that points come at a premium in their toughest matchups. Michigan played to a total of just 43 points against the Texas Longhorns and 44 points against Washington, hanging in there against strong offensive squads but unable to score enough to truly threaten to win.
Illinois has found itself in many of the same types of battles. The Penn State game is especially telling to me because it showed what we can expect from the Fighting Illini against high-end Big Ten competition. The Illinois defense held Penn State to just 21 points and kept the Illini in the game, which was 7-7 at the half. Unfortunately, Illinois wouldn’t score after that point.
This all sounds like a reason to lean towards the Under. However, we have to take into account that the total has been set at a rather low 43.5 points, and a second look at these teams does show that they can play in shootouts. Illinois is coming off that wild 50-49 win against Purdue, while Michigan has played above a total of 43.5 points in each of its last four games.
Still, the tendencies of both teams have me expecting a defensive struggle in this game. I’d much rather see this total go up a few points before betting the total at all, but if you want to put in an early wager, I do think the Under is the better side to play.
Michigan vs Illinois live odds
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