Michigan vs Minnesota Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Down the Gopher Hole Goes Wilson

Few coaches in college football preach “culture” to the extreme of PJ Fleck and Jim Harbaugh, so when their teams do battle there’s surely going to be some great soundbites, even if the Wolverines sink their teeth into the Golden Gophers and enjoy them as a mid-season snack.

Harbaugh’s Michigan team continues to look like one of the best in the country coming off a 45-7 win over Nebraska that has the college football odds heavily favoring them once again this week against a Minnesota team that limped to a 13-10 win over that same Cornhuskers program.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Michigan vs. Minnesota on Saturday, October 7.

Michigan vs Minnesota best odds

Michigan vs Minnesota picks and predictions

By all accounts, this should be a walk in the park for the Michigan Wolverines, who are 19-point favorites against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium.

There’s not a ton of great value in the Wolverines player props for this one, especially given the frequency in which star running back Blake Corum scores (he’s -700 as an anytime scorer), but one that sticks out is a Roman Wilson first-half touchdown.

As an anytime scorer against Minnesota, Wilson is -150, but looking strictly in the first half those odds jump to a tasty +160. Arguably the top senior wide receiver prospect in the 2024 NFL, Wilson has been a dominant force through five games with 326 yards and eight receiving touchdowns.

His eight touchdowns are tied for the most in the country, and six of them have come in the first half. Wilson and quarterback JJ McCarthy have helped the Wolverines become one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country, they’re currently sixth in EPA per pass.

While the Golden Gophers aren’t a terrible pass defense, sitting 45th in EPA per pass, they haven’t dealt with many teams like Michigan. Four of their games have been against a Sun Belt team (Louisiana), a MAC program (Eastern Michigan), and two of the worst Big Ten teams (Northwestern and Nebraska)

The most comparable team they’ve played this year was North Carolina, who they lost to 31-13 while allowing Drake Maye to throw for over 400 yards. Minnesota’s other loss came to a Northwestern team that nobody expected to win a Big Ten game, Fleck’s defense gave up 396 passing yards to Ben Bryant in that one.

So, while they don’t rank poorly as a pass defense, allowing 234.2 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game, they’re susceptible when there’s a talented quarterback and playmaking receivers on the field.

Minnesota’s defense is giving up 21.6 points per game this season, 45th best in the country, but has been more prone to allowing touchdowns through the air. Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi’s unit has allowed four rushing touchdowns in five games vs. nine passing touchdowns.

With Wilson’s deep speed, he’s averaging 17.2 per catch this season, he’s got the ability to take the top off a defense at any moment, and with the Gophers giving up big plays, he should be able to break one early. 

Wilson taking his game to another level this season has helped Michigan become more balanced and the coaching staff knows he’s been the team's X-factor through five wins this year.

“Love the way he’s playing,” Harbaugh said. “He’s getting a lot of attention now, and he’s still winning, still finishing plays, still blocking.”

My best bet: Roman Wilson 1H TD (+160 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Michigan vs Minnesota same-game parlay

Roman Wilson 1H TD

Roman Wilson Over 56.5 receiving yards

J.J. McCarthy Over 1.5 passing TDs

+350 at bet365

When Wilson is scoring, he’s usually racking up the receiving yards too. In five games this season, he’s scored at least one touchdown in four of them. He’s also surpassed 56.5 receiving yards in four of five games.

As McCarthy’s go-to receiver, Wilson has averaged 65.2 receiving yards per game and in the two Big Ten games Michigan has played this year, he’s averaging 3.5 receptions for 58.5 receiving yards and a touchdown. 

In five games, Minnesota has allowed over 56.5 receiving yards to four different pass catchers and when that happens, they’re usually giving up touchdown passes too.

Not only have the Golden Gophers allowed Over 1.5 touchdown passes per game this season, but they’ve also only held Eastern Michigan and Nebraska under two.

McCarthy is poised to go Over the 1.5 line for the fifth time in six games this season; the only time he’s thrown less than two touchdowns was against Rutgers.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan vs Minnesota spread and Over/Under analysis

The line has stayed the course for the most part in this Big Ten battle with Michigan opening as 19.5-point road favorites and the line only shifting a 0.5 point in either direction over the last few days. Most books have the Wolverines at -19 or -19.5.

Despite Harbaugh’s squad being one of the best in the country, they’ve struggled to against the spread going 1-3-1. Last week’s win over Nebraska was the only time the Wolverines have covered this season; they pushed against Rutgers.

Minnesota has been just as bad going 1-4 against the spread, also covering for the first time last week in a 35-24 win against the Ragin’ Cajuns as 9-point favorites.

The game total opened at 47.5 and has trickled down to 46 at most books. Michigan has averaged a respectable 34.4 points per game, 39th in the country, but Minnesota is scoring just 24 per game, 97th in the country.

However, the Golden Gophers have hit the Over more this season going 2-3. They’ve hit the Over in their last two games.

While the Wolverines have gone just 1-4 when betting the Over this season, it has far more to do with their defense than offense. They’ve held opposing teams to just six points per game, the best in the country. 

Michigan has hit the team total Over in four of their last five games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI) and have scored at least 30 points in every game this season.

Michigan vs Minnesota betting trend to know

Minnesota has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs Minnesota.

Michigan vs Minnesota game info

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