Arguably the best rivalry in college football kicks off at Noon ET on Saturday at the Shoe when the 6-5 Michigan Wolverines will be looking to play spoiler against the 10-1 Ohio State Buckeyes.
My early Michigan vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for November 30 believe the Wolverines can keep things close in a game where points will be precious.
Michigan vs Ohio State predictions
Early spread lean
Michigan +20.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Michigan Wolverines have dominated this rivalry of late, winning three straight over the Ohio State Buckeyes. However, that was with Jim Harbaugh as coach, and it has been a rough first season without him at the helm.
Still, this spread is just way too high given the talent the Wolverines still have across the field.
The Wolverines rank 36th nationally allowing only 21.5 points per game and are 23rd in total yardage allowed. They are especially good against the run, allowing only 94.0 yards per game on the ground. Only Oregon and Texas were able to put up more than 27 points against this defense and other ranked opponents — Illinois, USC, and Indiana — failed to put up more than 24 points.
The Buckeyes have an explosive offense but have been held down by some good defenses this season. They only scored 21 on Nebraska, and 20 on Penn State. They have mostly depended on their defense this season, as only Oregon was able to put up more than 17 points on them.
Michigan has a lot of issues on offense and they have not shown any sort of life at the quarterback position, playing three different guys throughout the season. However, since they went back to Davis Warren a month ago, he has played much more efficiently and has been protecting the ball. He has four touchdowns to one interception in the last four games compared to two touchdowns to six interceptions in his three games before being benched.
I do not see Michigan winning this game straight-up, but there is a level of confidence that those Wolverine players will have since none of them have ever lost to Ohio State. I believe we will see the best performance of the season from Michigan here, and 20.5 is just way too big a number.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 43.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
As I mentioned previously, only Oregon was able to surpass 17 points on this Ohio State defense. The Michigan offense is certainly nowhere near the level of the Oregon offense. I think the Wolverines will be thrilled to even reach the 20-point mark, which they have only done in two of their previous six games.
Michigan is unlikely to win this game and they've average only 13.6 points per game in their five losses this season. The Buckeyes have allowed only 8.6 points per game in their 10 victories. We are looking at the Wolverines scoring around 10-13 points based on averages.
The reason to like the Over in this game would be because you think Ohio State is going to want to run up the score to avenge their three seasons of being dominated in this rivalry. The problem is, they must go against a defense that is not going to allow that to happen.
Michigan is going to want to muck up this game as much as possible and just use their run game and short passes to see if they can win time of possession. If Michigan can make the Buckeyes one-dimensional on offense by shutting down the run, they could also force some mistakes from Will Howard, who has thrown a pick in three of his past five games.
This game just feels like it will be a one possession game late, and will end up somewhere around 20-13 as a final score for the Buckeyes. I really like the Under here.
Michigan vs Ohio State live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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