Following a hard-fought road win over one ranked opponent, No. 7 Penn State will try to feed off an electric home environment to earn another when it hosts No. 16 Michigan in a "White Out" game Saturday night. **video
The Nittany Lions have covered the spread in four times on the way to their 6-0 SU record, while the Wolverines have bounced back after an embarrassing loss at Wisconsin, winning three in a row (2-1). From the opening kickoff to the final whistle we break down the best ways to wager this massive Big Ten battle.
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES AT PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (-7.5, 47 @ BETAMERICA)
QUICK HITTER
Penn State has gotten off to good starts this season, ranking 15th in the country in first quarter scoring at 9.8 per contest. However, they were shut out in the first quarter in last week’s 17-12 at Iowa. In fact, in the two games in which the Nittany Lions play good defenses (Iowa and Pitt in Week 3) they managed to score just one first quarter touchdown.
Michigan’s offense, in the same vein, has struggled against competent defenses. The Wolverines have scored a combined 17 points in the first quarter in their three games against tougher competition (Army, Wisconsin and Iowa). With two strong defenses going head to head in this one, we like the opening frame to be a low scoring one.
Pick: Under 10 First Quarter Total
FIRST HALF BET
Speaking of those defenses, surprisingly it’s Penn State who has the better unit by the numbers right now. The Nittany Lions enter the week ranked second among FBS teams in scoring defense (8.2), fourth in total defense (259.7 yards per game) and tied for second in sacks (27).
That could be a big problem for Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson. The senior signal caller did throw three touchdowns against Illinois last week, but he still completed just 50 percent of his passes and he’s been battling his accuracy all season long. His completion percentage for the season is just 57.8 percent and take away his game against Rutgers and Patterson has a pedestrian 7.1 yards per attempt.
The Penn State front seven will get pressure on Patterson early and force him into some bad throws, giving the Nittany Lions more opportunities on offense and will head into the break with a nice lead.
Pick: Penn State -4.5 First Half Spread
FULL GAME TOTAL
We spoke about Penn State’s defense earlier, but Michigan is no slouch on that side of the ball as well. And it has been defense that has fueled the Wolverines three game winning streak. Michigan ranks 14th in total defense and 15th in points allowed this season, and over the last three games it’s allowing just 3.2 yards per play, third best in the nation (the teams ahead of them are Penn State and Wisconsin funnily enough). And while Penn State has put up some gaudy numbers on offense at times this season, they averaged just 17 points per game against the good defenses they have face this year (Pitt and Iowa). While this matchup has seen one side put at least 40 points in each of the last three seasons, that doesn’t seem as likely this time around.
Pick: Under 47
FULL GAME SIDE
The games where the Michigan defense has looked vulnerable, has been those were they have faced strong rushing attacks. The Wolverines were gashed for a combined 559 rushing yards against Army and Wisconsin and while the Penn State ground game didn’t get off to a strong start this season, freshman Noah Cain has turned things around, rushing for 207 yards on 34 carries and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. While sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford (1,560 yards, 64.2 completion percentage, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions) gives the Nittany Lions real balance.
And at this point everyone knows about Jim Harbaugh’s record against elite competition. But here’s one more stat for those Michigan haters out there. The Wolverines are 1-5 SU/ATS in their last six road games against a ranked opponent. Mix in the revenge factor after last year’s blowout loss and we like the Nittany Lions to cover in this one.
Pick: Penn State -7.5
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