Slighted by the College Football Playoff ranking committee or not, the Michigan Wolverines must continue to truck along — with a road date against Rutgers next on the docket.
The Wolverines exercised some rivalry demons with a 29-7 victory over Michigan State in Week 9 and will look to stay on pace with Ohio State with another win this weekend.
College football odds have Michigan slated as a sizable 26-point favorite on the road against a Rutgers squad that has just one conference win this season (vs. Indiana).
Will the Wolverines respond to the committee with yet another dominant victory? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Michigan vs. Rutgers.
Michigan vs Rutgers best odds
Michigan vs Rutgers picks and predictions
As dominant as this Michigan Wolverines team has looked this year, they've had to settle into many of its conference games, with the huge disparity in final score often coming in the second frame.
Looking more specifically at their last three outings, the Wolverines were able to really put it on their opponents later in the game with one of the nation's best offensive lines and maybe the best running back in all of college football in Blake Corum.
They outscored Indiana 21-0 in the second half, No. 10 Penn State 25-3, and in-state rival Michigan State 16-0, covering the second-half spread in each of those three contests. Furthermore, they failed to cover the full-game spread in two of those contests because of slow starts (10-10 halftime score at Indiana, 13-7 halftime score vs. MSU).
Despite this offense being one of the best in the nation — averaging a sixth-best 41 points per game — the Wolverines have had some struggles early on as they try to find some offensive balance and rhythm between the run and passing game.
Once the offensive line establishes itself, quarterback J.J. McCarthy has proven he can take this offense to new heights, and once it builds a lead, there may not be a team better equipped to keep it with Corum and Donovan Edwards in the run game.
This Rutgers defense is solid and ranks inside the Top 25 in opponents yards per game and yards per play, however, it gave up 49 points to Ohio State and hasn't otherwise faced an offense of Michigan's caliber.
On the other side of the ball, you're pitting Michigan's No. 2-ranked scoring defense against one of the worst offenses in all of college football in Rutgers, ranking 124th (of 131 FBS teams) or worse in scoring offense, total offense, and yards per play.
Considering the Wolverines have given up just three second-half points in their last three contests to much better offenses, they could just as easily hold Rutgers to a field goal or less in the final 30 minutes. Then, regularly-scheduled programming should see Corum & Co. continue to pound the ball into Rutgers' end zone.
Slow start or not, I don't see the Wolverines holding back in the second half as they look to make a point to the CFP committee.
My best bet: Michigan second half -12.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Michigan vs Rutgers spread analysis
You can argue this Michigan team is better than last year's squad... or at the very least, more equipped to win a playoff game.
The Wolverines are 8-0 straight up with a 4-4 record against the spread thus far. They're similar to Ohio State in that five of their eight games came with spreads of -21 or bigger, including a couple of 50-point spreads in non-conference play early in the season.
J.J. McCarthy has fit right into this Michigan offense and has it firing on all cylinders as he leads the nation in completion percentage (74.6%). The offense ranks sixth in scoring offense, 13th in yards per play, and is racking up 469.8 yards per game (20th), a majority of which comes from a ground game that averages a seventh-best 246 rushing yards per game on a seventh-best 5.7 yards per carry.
On the other hand, Rutgers is 4-4 SU but just 1-4 in Big Ten play with its only win coming at home against Indiana two weeks ago. The Scarlet Knights are 4-3-1 ATS thanks to a pretty competent defense but an offense that is truly one of the worst in the country certainly doesn't do them any favors.
Michigan vs Rutgers Over/Under analysis
Though I've talked at length about the Wolverines' strengths on offense, their defense has been just as — if not more — impressive especially considering all of the talent they lost to the NFL Draft in the offseason.
This defense leads the nation in opponent yards per play and is giving up just 11.5 points per game on the season (15 per game in Big Ten play). As such, that defense should dominate a dreadful Rutgers offense that hasn't exceeded 17 points in its last six games and were blanked by Minnesota just last weekend (31-0).
Michigan has stayed Under the total in four of its last five games while Rutgers has gone Under in each of its last three.
With a low total hovering around 46 points and very little of that expected to come from the Scarlet Knights, Michigan's offense will have to stay busy should this one go Over. I'd suggest staying away.
Michigan vs Rutgers betting trend to know
The Wolverines have covered the second-half spread in each of their last three games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. Rutgers.
Michigan vs Rutgers game info
| Location: | SHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJ |
| Date: | Saturday, November 5, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Big Ten Network |
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