Last year, everyone was calling for Jim Harbaugh’s job at Michigan. But when he decided to start Cade McNamara in place of Joe Milton, things changed for Michigan and now they’re starting to move forward in the right direction.
On the other hand, Wisconsin’s quarterback Graham Mertz is taking steps backward for the Badgers. It’s clear that Michigan is currently what Wisconsin wants to be.
The Wolverines will travel to Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin, with a 12:00 p.m. ET start on October 2. Our picks and predictions for the Michigan vs Wisconsin game are below.
Michigan vs Wisconsin odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Wisconsin Badgers were a 9.5-point favorite at the start of the season. Now they’re a one-point favorite at some outlets, including DraftKings. The total hasn’t moved from 43.5, however.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Michigan vs Wisconsin picks
Picks made on 10/29/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Michigan vs Wisconsin game info
• Location: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
• Date: Saturday, October 2, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Michigan vs Wisconsin betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Michigan: Ronnie Bell WR (Out)
Wisconsin: Braelon Allen RB (Questionable), Quan Easterling FB (Questionable), Jack Eschenbach TE (Questionable), Deron Harrell CB (Questionable), Faion Hicks CB (Questionable), Antwan Roberts (Out), Jordan Turner LB (Out), Aaron Witt LB (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. Wisconsin.
Michigan vs Wisconsin predictions
Michigan +1 (-110)
Wisconsin is currently averaging 19 points per game while allowing 21.3 points per game. While the Badgers are earning over 400 yards of offense per game, they’ve struggled to score points.
The key reason for this is Graham Mertz, the starting quarterback for Wisconsin. Mertz has thrown for 566 yards through three games with one touchdown and six interceptions. Wisconsin looks real bad letting Jack Coan walk to let Mertz play.
Mertz was hyped up after his first collegiate start. Since then, it’s been a disaster for him. The pass protection has also been weak, and Wisconsin is averaging more yards on the ground than passing this season.
That’s one of the things the Badgers wanted to get back to. They’ve always been a solid run team with running backs like Jonathan Taylor and so forth. This team will need to rush for over 200 yards a game if they want to get their identity back this season.
Defensively, the Badgers have dominated against the run, allowing just 25 yards per game on the ground. However, the coverage for Wisconsin has been weak and that could force Michigan to open up the playbook a bit and throw the football.
The Wolverines haven’t been passing the ball too often. Michigan is a run-heavy offense that will have to clinch drives against Wisconsin’s biggest strength — that rushing defense.
The Wolverines weren’t all that against a powerful rushing offense last week in Rutgers. Still, we’ve seen what Michigan is capable of when rushing the football with Blake Corum. While he rushed for just 3.2 yards per carry last week, he’s still averaging 6.9 yards per carry on the season.
The Wolverines are elite on defense and have also dominated the run while playing well in coverage. I’m not so sure Wisconsin will be able to score more than two touchdowns, at most.
Under 43.5 (-110)
This game has a big defensive feel to it. Michigan had to face a real tough test last week against Rutgers and it won’t get easier against Wisconsin.
The Michigan offense is more than capable of scoring a couple touchdowns, but they’ll need the defense to get stops and keep drives going a little longer.
Michigan isn’t really the problem on defense. It’s going to be hard going up against the Wisconsin rush D, but the reality is, Michigan will find a way on the road.
I can’t say the same for Mertz and Wisconsin. It’s hard to know how much trust Mertz has from his teammates and coaching staff at this point. Will the Badgers elect to throw the ball often or stick to the ground game?
If they want to stick around in the game, they’ll run the football and try to match Michigan. Therefore, this game will go Under the total. Neither team will reach more than 24 and I’d be surprised if Wisconsin scores more than 14.
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