Christmas Eve belongs to the Hawaii Bowl.
Middle Tennessee (7-5) and San Diego State (7-5) head to the island to play at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in what figures to be a festive atmosphere tonight between two hard-nosed football teams.
The Blue Raiders won three straight to end the regular season and will hope to make C-USA proud. The San Diego State Aztecs represent the Mountain West and are no strangers to bowl season, as the Hawaii Bowl marks their 12th bowl appearance in the last 13 seasons.
Which team will come away victorious on Christmas Eve night? Read our college football picks and predictions for Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State below.
Middle Tennessee State vs San Diego State best odds
Middle Tennessee State vs San Diego State picks and predictions
San Diego State is one of the best Group of Five programs around. Head coach Brady Hoke has led the Aztecs to its 12th bowl game in the last 13 years as this program represents a model of consistency.
The Aztecs went 12-2 last year but appeared to have taken a step back early on in 2022, dropping the opener to Arizona by 18 points and proceeding to post just a 2-3 record in their first five games. In other words, SDSU had already lost more games this season before the calendar flipped to October than it had all of last season.
Regardless, the Aztecs prevailed through it all despite the quarterback room being so depleted by injuries that they turned to Jalen Mayden, who was playing on the defensive side of the ball (safety) after a position change early in the offseason.
Mayden turned out to be a revelation and gave the Aztecs just the spark that they needed. The team went 5-2 with Mayden as the starter, playing its typically stout defense while finally featuring an offense that could move the ball.
Middle Tennessee won four of its last five games to reach bowl eligibility. Early returns on C-USA in bowl season haven’t been favorable, as UAB came a yard short of losing outright as -10.5 favorites, conference champion UTSA fell flat in the Cure Bowl, Rice lost by 14 points in the Lending Tree Bowl, and North Texas lost in in the Frisco Bowl.
All in all, the conference is 0-4 out of the gates in bowl season, which isn’t exactly a huge surprise given the overall weakness of the conference.
This should be a low-scoring game in which both defenses have the upper hand. SDSU ranks 27th in total defense, surrendering 335.4 yards per game, and will have the upper hand against a mediocre MTSU offense.
The advanced numbers like MTSU’s defense a lot more than the traditional stats, as the Blue Raiders rank 24th in EPA per play. A strong defensive front leads the way, as they rank 25th in line yards, 17th in stuff rate, and 20th in havoc.
They should be able to cause plenty of problems for an Aztecs offense that struggles mightily up front, ranking 90th in line yards, 103rd in stuff rate, and 122nd in havoc allowed by the front seven.
Give me a low-scoring, sleepy Hawaii Bowl that puts the kids to bed right on time.
My best bet: Under 49.5 (-109 at BetRivers)
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Middle Tennessee State vs San Diego State spread analysis
There has been a lot of steam in SDSU’s favor. After opening at -3.5, the Aztecs have been bet all the way up to -7 at current.
I am definitely in agreement with that line movement. SDSU is the stronger, sturdier program and has had much more recent success than MTSU.
The Aztecs' numbers are skewed by a very slow start to the season, but they’ve finally found their footing offensively under Mayden. Throw in the fact that C-USA has been an embarrassment in bowl season, and SDSU is the preferred side.
The good news is that opt-outs and transfers aren’t expected to have a huge impact on this game, as the news has been very quiet on that front for both teams as of the time of this writing. In a day and age where teams are often stripped of much of their talent for the bowl game, this game should be a welcome reprieve.
MTSU hasn’t been great in bowl games, posting a 2-5 ATS mark in its last seven tries. Given the weakness of C-USA, this mark isn’t exactly surprising. SDSU has a 25-5 record all-time against C-USA, and I expect the Aztecs to make that mark 26-5 with another victory in the Hawaii Bowl.
The line has been steamed to the point where there isn’t much — if any — value left, but it’s favorite or pass.
Middle Tennessee State vs San Diego State Over/Under analysis
SDSU has been very solid yet again on defense this season, surrendering just 20.2 ppg. The Aztecs shut down rushing attacks, allowing just 128.8 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry.
Considering MTSU hasn’t run the ball well in ages and that was the case again in 2022 (123.1 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry), the Blue Raiders should be forced into passing situations.
The Aztecs can get in the backfield and put pressure on the quarterback, ranking 26th in havoc created by the front seven. Jonah Tavai leads the way with 12.5 tackles for loss and 9.0 sacks, while Michael Shawcroft has chipped in 12 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks.
MTSU struggles up front, ranking 119th in line yards, 99th in stuff rate, and 97th in havoc allowed by the front seven. I expect the Aztecs to cause a lot of problems up front, putting pressure on quarterback Chase Cunningham.
SDSU limits big plays in the passing game (33rd in passing explosiveness), so MTSU will need to be very meticulous in moving the ball downfield.
I’ve alluded above to why SDSU could also struggle along the offensive line in this matchup. MTSU standouts Jordan Ferguson (16 tackles for loss, 9.0 sacks), Marley Cook (9.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks), and Zaylin Wood (8.0 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks) should create plenty of disruption in this matchup.
Both offenses will be in a similar boat in struggling along the offensive front — hence my predilection of the Under.
In-play microbetting trends for Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State
The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):
Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:
Middle Tennessee
Offensive score Yes: 11/46 (23.9%)
Offensive score No: 35/46 (76.1%)
Punts: 25/46 (54.3%)
TDs: 8/46 (17.4%)
FG attempts: 4/46 (8.7%)
TOs: 9/46 (19.6%)
Middle Tennessee had two drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.
San Diego State
Offensive score Yes: 3/17 (17.6%)
Offensive score No: 14/17 (82.3%)
Punts: 11/17 (64.7%)
TDs: 2/17 (11.8%)
FG attempts: 1/17 (5.9%)
TOs: 3/17 (17.6%)
Middle Tennessee State vs San Diego State betting trend to know
The Under is 12-5-1 in the Aztecs’ last 18 games against a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State.
Middle Tennessee State vs San Diego State game info
| Location: | Clarence T. C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI |
| Date: | Saturday, December 24, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Middle Tennessee State vs San Diego State latest injuries
Middle Tennessee State vs San Diego State weather
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