Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Flames Run Hot Against MTSU

We have a terrific Conference USA matchup tonight when undefeated Liberty welcomes Middle Tennessee to Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, VA. 

College football odds have been bouncing a bit since Liberty opened Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite, but we’ve found the best number at the best price available. 

I break down the spread, total, and more in our college football picks for Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty below.

Middle Tennessee vs Liberty best odds

Middle Tennessee vs Liberty picks and predictions

The Liberty Flames seem to be on a mission to win their inaugural season in C-USA and I like them to cover the 13.5-point spread against Middle Tennesee.

The Flames have defeated a dozen consecutive C-USA opponents. A victory Tuesday would enable Liberty to become the first ever C-USA team to go 5-0 in their first five conference games. I expect them to make history with a convincing win here.

The Flames rank inside the Top 30 in scoring offense and scoring defense and also have a 5-1 ATS record. Flames quarterback Kaidon Salter and his defensive teammates will ensure a victory and a historic one at that.

Salter has accounted for 20 Flames TDs this season. Over his previous five games, Salter has passed for a dozen TDs and has rushed for an additional six TDs with two interceptions. 

The sophomore signal-caller has a pair of receivers combining for 800+ receiving yards with six TDs and another pair of Flames gathering up 300+ receiving yards and five TDs. The offensive line has been solid, and while Salter leads with six rushing TDs, junior RB Quinton Cooley is the Flames leading rusher with 592 rushing yards and three trips to the endzone.

Middle Tennessee is known for its defense, but that reputation hasn’t carried over to this 2023 team. A Blue Raiders defense with 62 forced turnovers over the past two seasons has just seven in 2023, with those seven occurring over their past five games. 

As a result, Middle Tennessee allows 31.5 points per game, which won’t get the job done on the road against Liberty. The Blue Raiders rank 65th nationally against the rush and 111th against the pass, and Liberty may have too much firepower for this Middle Tennessee defense to handle.

The Flames' defense is 19th nationally in scoring and has allowed fewer than 17.2 in four of their six 2023 contests and no more than 27 points in any one contest this season. Liberty is 37th in the country against the rush, 28th against the pass, and allows the 21st total yards in FBS play this season. 

Blue Raiders sophomore QB Nicolas Vattiato leads C-USA in passing with multiple passing TD games in four of his past five. He’s also thrown five interceptions during that same span, with two wideouts combining for 800+ receiving yards with four additional Blue Raiders with 100+ receiving yards. Running back Jaiden Credle has one 100+ rushing game but has been stymied over the past four with only one rushing score over his last four.

Liberty simply has too much for this young Blue Raiders group on both sides of the ball. The Flames offense is tough to stop, and the Liberty defense consistently comes through with big plays and will frustrate Vattiato on Tuesday.

I know 13.5 points is a lot to spot Middle Tennessee but Liberty is 5-1 ATS this season and should improve that record again on Tuesday.

My best bet: Liberty -13.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Middle Tennessee vs Liberty same-game parlay

Liberty -13.5 (-110)

Over 54.5 (-110)

+244 at DraftKings

On top of the Flames covering the spread, I also believe this could be a high-scoring affair on Tuesday. We know what the Flames offense can do, but Vattiato can sling it a bit, and I don’t expect the Blue Raiders offense to get completely dominated.

Middle Tennessee has seven plays this season over 40+ yards, facing a defense allowing three plays of 40+ this season. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Middle Tennessee vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

We’ve shared plenty of info on why I like Liberty to cover the spread and briefly why I believe the Over 54.5 is also a good bet, but here are some additional notes for this C-USA affair.

The Blue Raiders defense intercepted 37 passes over their previous two seasons and have four interceptions with 34 passes defended this season.

Middle Tennessee punter Miles Tillman enters the Liberty game with a 44.4-yard average, with 10 punts landing inside the 20-yard line.

Liberty ranks second nationally in rushing yards. Cooley is coming off a 168-yard, two-TD output against a stout Jacksonville State rushing defense during Week 7.

The Flames have also dominated the first half of games this season. They’ve scored 21+ over their first five contests but were limited to 10 first-half points in Week 7.

Middle Tennessee vs Liberty betting trend to know

Liberty is 5-1 ATS this season. Find more college football betting trends for Middle Tennessee vs Liberty.

Middle Tennessee vs Liberty game info

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