Bowl Season kicks off with one of the most unique bowl games of them all — and the only one to be played outside of the United States. The 2021 Bahamas Bowl features the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (6-6) of the Conference USA and Toledo Rockets (7-5) of the MAC.
Toledo was expected to challenge for a conference title but sputtered to a middle-of-the-road finish, despite winning the last three games of the season. Will the Rockets stay hot and grab the first victory of the 2021 bowl season?
Get our thoughts with our college football betting picks and predictions for Middle Tennessee State vs. Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl on Friday, December 17.
Middle Tennessee vs Toledo odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line has moved toward the Rockets, who opened -9.5 but sit at -10 at the time of this writing. The total has dropped from 54 to 52.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Middle Tennessee vs Toledo predictions
Predictions made on 12/11/2021 at 1:31 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Middle Tennessee vs Toledo game info
• Location: Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
• Date: Friday, December 17, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Middle Tennessee vs Toledo betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Middle Tennessee: Chase Cunningham QB (Out).
Toledo: Jerjuan Newton WR (Questionable), Bryce Mitchell WR (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six Bowl games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo.
Middle Tennessee vs Toledo picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Toledo never lived up to preseason expectations. Many predicted the Rockets to come out on top of the MAC... but instead, they finished with a 7-5 record. They couldn’t get out of their way, finishing as the most penalized team in America.
Still, let’s focus on why there were high expectations for this team in the first place. Toledo is an experienced, talented, well-coached football team. The offense has moved the ball effectively, averaging 6.6 yards per play while finishing 35th in the country with 435.8 yards per game. The defense also finished as a Top-35 unit while allowing only 342.5 ypg and 4.9 yards per play. It’s unusual to see a team hovering around .500 with a positive 1.7 yards per play differential — this is a solid football team on both sides of the ball.
Middle Tennessee’s yards per play sits at 5.1 both offensively and defensively — much more reflective of a .500 football team. The Blue Raiders have primarily made their hay off forcing turnovers, where they rank first nationally with 31 takeaways. They likely won’t be able to rely on that in this matchup against Toledo, who has the fewest giveaways in the nation with only six all season.
A key factor to consider when handicapping the Bahamas Bowl is the weather. Although the current forecast calls for sunshine and temperatures in the high-70s, there are expected to be winds of over 18 mph at game time.
So, with heavy winds in the forecasts, we must ask: Which team is better at running the football? The answer is undoubtedly Toledo, who averaged 193.8 rushing yards per game. The Rockets’ whole offensive philosophy centers around the ability to pound the rock. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, has no ground attack to speak of — the Blue Raiders rank 109th nationally in rushing yards per game and have managed a measly 3.5 yards per rush on the season.
Toledo has been more efficient on both sides of the ball and has a style of play much better suited for a windy environment.
Prediction: Toledo -10 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Wind is the key factor in this Under play. Middle Tennessee has struggled to move the ball on the ground and has resorted primarily to the passing game, averaging 35.2 attempts per game through the air. It could find trouble moving the ball in a windy environment against a Toledo secondary that ranks 16th nationally with just 191.5 passing yards per game allowed.
The Blue Raiders are also down to their fourth quarterback of the season in true freshman Nick Vattiato. Finishing the season as the starter, Vattiato threw five touchdowns to go with six interceptions and managed only 5.7 yards per attempt. We find it highly unlikely that he torches this solid Toledo secondary.
Toledo will look to primarily keep the ball on the ground with running back Bryant Koback (1,618 total yards, 18 TDs) and dual-threat QB DeQuan Finn. This should keep the clock churning and help the Under.
Prediction: Under 52.5 (-110)
Best bet
Toledo is the rightful favorite. The Rockets have been more efficient on both sides of the ball and while their record doesn’t scare anyone, they’ve won three straight and four of the five losses came by three points or fewer.
Give us Toledo laying the points.
Pick: Toledo -10 (-110)
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Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
