Minnesota vs Iowa Picks and Predictions: Iowa’s Offense to Continue Cratering?

Remember when Iowa was ranked No. 2 in the country? It seems like a lifetime ago as the Hawkeyes have dropped two of their last three games, with the lone win coming against lowly Northwestern.

Minnesota sits at 6-3 and will be on the hunt for an elusive victory in this heated rivalry matchup. Will the Golden Gophers find revenge after last year’s embarrassing 35-7 loss, or will the Hawkeyes get back on track in Big Ten play?

Check out our betting picks and predictions for the Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday, November 13 to find out.

Minnesota vs Iowa odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Iowa opened as -6.5 favorites across most books, but the line had been bet down to -5 at the time of writing. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Minnesota vs Iowa picks

• Minnesota +5 (-110)
• Iowa Team Total Under 20.5 (EVEN)

Picks made on 11/11/2021 at 3:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Minnesota vs Iowa game info

• Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
• Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Big Ten Network

Minnesota vs Iowa betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Minnesota: Mohamed Ibrahim RB (Out), Treyson Potts RB (Out), Bryce Williams RB (Out), Chris Autman-Bell WR (Probable), Dragan Kesich K (Questionable).
Iowa: Spencer Petras QB (Doubtful), Ivory Kelly-Martin RB (Questionable), Riley Moss DB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Golden Gophers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Minnesota vs. Iowa.

Minnesota vs Iowa predictions

Minnesota +5 (-110)

This Iowa team was never as good as its No. 2 ranking in the AP Poll. It benefited from an obscene amount of turnovers and was able to hide its offensive deficiencies for just long enough to trick the pollsters. The shine has quickly worn off after two straight losses to Purdue and Wisconsin in which the offense managed only 7 points in each game, followed by a narrow 17-12 victory over a bad Northwestern team.

There's no way around it, the offense is abysmal. The Hawkeyes are averaging only 299.4 yards per game on 4.5 yards per play. The offensive line is struggling, limiting the run game to only 3.1 yards per carry. A switch to Alex Padilla at quarterback was supposed to bring new life to the offense, but it managed only 3 points in the second half against a Northwestern defense allowing 37.8 points per game in Big Ten play entering that contest.

Things also haven’t been great for Minnesota on the offensive side of the ball, but at least it's been able to score with greater regularity. The Golden Gophers were averaging 31.3 points over a four-game winning streak before being derailed last week against Illinois. It was a letdown game, but those happen — Iowa, meanwhile, has been a letdown for the past month.

Both offenses will want to establish the run. The key difference is Minnesota is actually successful at doing so, averaging 208.1 rushing yards despite rostering only two scholarship running backs after a slew of injuries at the position. Additionally, the Gophers have a massive advantage on the O-line. 

Expect coach P.J. Fleck to have his team motivated after some post-game chirping from Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz following last year’s Hawkeyes win. Minnesota hasn’t won at Kinnick Stadium since 1999, Ferentz’s first year at the helm. Do you think that Fleck won’t have his team fired up and ready to notch a win over a vulnerable rival?

Iowa Team Total Under 20.5 (EVEN)

This Iowa offense has been struggling to get anything going. It's gone under this mark in four straight contests and hasn’t come particularly close a few times. The Hawkeyes' offensive identity is supposed to be along the offensive line and the running game, but it's averaging only 3.1 yards per carry despite featuring star offensive lineman Tyler Linderbaum and dangerous running back Tyler Goodson. Something has gone systemically wrong, and the results are ugly.

Here are the yardage totals for Minnesota’s last three opponents: 268 for Maryland, 242 for Northwestern, and 265 for Illinois. This is a good defense led by Boye Mafe and Thomas Rush on the defensive line and Mario Sori-Marin at linebacker. Iowa's stumbling offensive attack has been suffocated by lesser defenses, which doesn't bode well for Saturday.

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