The Mississippi State Bulldogs head west for a first-time meeting with the Arizona Wildcats in Week 2 of the 2022 college football season.
Both teams kicked off Week 1 with a win, with MSU downing Memphis by 26 at home and Arizona upsetting San Diego State, 38-20, on the road.
The Bulldogs opened as an 8-point favorite at most sportsbooks, with the line shifting as much as three points in their favor by midweek.
Can Mike Leach’s team carry the momentum from last week into a road contest against a burgeoning Pac-12 squad? Below are our best free college football picks and predictions for the Week 2 battle between Mississippi State and Arizona.
Mississippi State vs Arizona best odds
Mississippi State vs Arizona picks and predictions
Memphis was no match for the Bulldogs' Air Raid offense in Week 1, as Mississippi State got off to a swift start, scoring on the opening drive with a 23-yard pass from junior quarterback Will Rogers to Rara Thomas.
A three-hour lightning delay with 5:17 to go in the first failed to stop the momentum. On MSU’s second possession, Rogers struck again with a nine-yard pass to Jaden Walley to put the Bulldogs up 14-0.
By halftime, the team was up 28-3 and extended the lead to 35-3 before allowing Memphis to reach the end zone on its final three drives to close the gap.
Rodgers was spectacular, finishing 38-of-49 passing for 450 yards and five touchdown passes, while he threw one interception early in the second quarter. The game marked the sixth 400-yard game for the signal caller, as he connected with 12 different receivers, four of which hauled in five or more passes.
The Bulldogs outgained Memphis 542-294, recorded 32 first downs, and were 11-for-13 on third down.
MSU’s run game, which ranked last in the SEC (63.2 yards per game), also got involved, with 97 yards on 34 attempts. Running backs Jo'Quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson combined to rush for 103 yards on 26 carries, while Marks added two touchdowns.
The pairing could be especially important against Arizona, who surrendered 170 rushing yards against San Diego State and ranked third to last in the Pac-12 in rushing yards allowed last year.
In Week 1, Arizona faced a far different offense in San Diego State, which garnered just 62 yards on 16 pass attempts. Leach’s Air Raid attack will be a whole other beast and should be able to keep the Wildcats off balance if MSU’s run game continues to get involved.
The Bulldogs also own an advantage in Leach having coached in the Pac-12 for eight seasons at Washington State. The last time his Cougars played Arizona, Leach’s team put up 69 points in a 2018 matchup, and of the six times Leach’s Cougars confronted the Wildcats, only once (in 2013) did his team score fewer than 37 points on Arizona.
My best bet: Mississippi State team total Over 36.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
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Mississippi State vs Arizona betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
Not only was MSU’s offense dominant in its 49-23 thrashing of Memphis, but the defense showed promise for much of the game.
The Bulldogs surrendered two first downs in the first seven possessions and gave up just 40 yards halfway through the third quarter. A 50-yard run by Memphis back Jevyon Ducker late in the third pushed Memphis past the 100-yard mark.
In Week 2’s matchup with Arizona, the Bulldogs will go up against transfer quarterback Jayden de Laura, the Pac-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year at Washington State who was recruited by Leach during his time in Pullman.
De Laura put on a solid performance in Week 1, as well, with 299 yards on 22 of 35 passing, plus four touchdown passes, three of which went to UTEP transfer Jacob Cowing, who finished the night with eight catches for 152 yards.
De Laura and Cowing are two of 11 transfers for Arizona, who went 1-11 last season but has a drastically different roster this season — the second with head coach Jedd Fisch.
But while a win over a San Diego State team coming off a 12-win season was impressive, MSU should provide a much steeper challenge.
The Bulldogs had the ball for over 41 minutes against Memphis and will likely control the time of possession against Arizona, especially if the defense shuts down Cowing.
The Bulldogs boast better talent and should handle their Pac-12 foe, breaking away for a big win by the third quarter.
Over/Under analysis
We already know what Mississippi State’s Air Raid offense can do, but the Wildcats seem to have turned a corner, too, based on their 38-point outing in Week 1. Last season, Arizona surpassed the 20-point mark just twice, both times in losses to USC and Utah.
MSU and Arizona both suffered defensive lapses in Week 1, and similar mistakes could result in chunks of points for both teams to help push the total Over.
San Diego State racked up 10 points behind a blocked punt and field goal in under four minutes to bring the score to 31-20 by 3:36 in the third quarter against Arizona. A meltdown like that against Mississippi State will be much more costly.
The Over is 3-0-1 in Arizona’s last four games overall and 5-2 in the Wildcats’ last seven games following a straight-up win, while the total has gone Over in four of Mississippi State’s last five road games vs. teams with a winning home record.
Look for MSU to be explosive out the gate in Leach’s return to Arizona, but De Laura and Cowing will help keep their team hanging around in this matchup.
Expect plenty of points in this late-night SEC vs. Pac-12 showdown.
Mississippi State vs Arizona game info
• Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 11:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox Sports 1
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Mississippi State vs Arizona betting trend to know
The Over is 5-2 in Mississippi State’s last seven games overall and 9-4 in the team’s last 13 non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Arizona.
