Mississippi State vs Arkansas Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Razorbacks Passing Attack Buries the Bulldogs

Two SEC bottom dwellers will face off on Saturday as the Arkansas Razorbacks host the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Arkansas (2-5) has lost five straight and has yet to win a game in conference play. However, the college football odds still favor the Razorbacks over Mississippi State (3-3), as the Bulldogs are still looking to capture their first SEC victory. 

While the Razorbacks have been on a long losing streak, some of those defeats have actually been fairly competitive affairs. We’ll see if that’s enough to back them this week in our free college football picks and predictions for Mississippi State vs. Arkansas on October 21.

Mississippi State vs Arkansas picks and predictions

While the Arkansas Razorbacks haven’t won in over a month now, none of their five consecutive losses has been particularly embarrassing. 

Over the course of this losing streak, Arkansas has only been outscored by a total of 6.4 points per game. Four of these defeats have been in single-score games, including road losses to LSU Tigers, Mississippi, and most recently, Alabama. That’s not the resume of a team that has a realistic chance of missing bowl season, but in the SEC, such things are possible.

Meanwhile, the Mississippi State Bulldogs may not even be as good as their 3-3 record suggests. The Bulldogs lost by 23 points at home to Alabama and also suffered a 41-14 defeat at home at the hands of LSU. One of their wins came against Arizona in overtime and another saw them prevail over Southeastern Louisiana...which is an 0-7 FCS school.

Mississippi State is coming off a bye week but both quarterback Will Rogers and top running back Jo’quavious Marks are still uncertain to play on Saturday. The Bulldogs are also playing only their second road game of the year. 

On the other side of the ball, the Arkansas passing game is likely to have a field day with the Bulldogs secondary. Razorbacks starter KJ Jefferson has been solid, throwing for 14 touchdowns against just six interceptions while dealing with some of the best defenses in the SEC.

Jefferson will face a Mississippi State defense that is allowing 263.5 yards per game through the air. Opposing quarterbacks are lighting up the Bulldogs for a 74.2% completion rate and a 157.9 passing rating. 

It's easy enough to look at this game, see that Arkansas is on a long losing streak, and have trouble understanding why the Razorbacks are favored by almost a touchdown. But in reality, they should be an ever bigger favorite, and it’s only the losing streak that has kept the line so low. 

The better team is playing at home against an opponent that hasn’t held up against strong competition, and the fact that the spread has remained below a full touchdown is a huge bonus. I’m taking Arkansas to cover comfortably on Saturday.

My best bet: Arkansas -6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Mississippi State vs Arkansas same-game parlay

Arkansas -6.5

Over 48

KJ Jefferson 200+ passing yards

+320 at DraftKings

One of the main reasons I like Arkansas to cover the spread on Saturday is the fact that its passing attack should overwhelm the Mississippi State defense. That allows us to start by taking the Razorbacks on the spread, followed by adding a couple of extra bets to make a lucrative same-game parlay.

First, I’m predicting that the total in this game will his the Over at 48. Arkansas has scored at least 20 points in every game this year, including in road games against some tough defenses. The Razorbacks will score far more against a Bulldogs team that has played to totals of at least 55 points in every game this season.

Much of that success will come through the air, where Mississippi hasn’t been able to stop anyone this season. Jefferson will throw early and often, so taking a relatively low alternative total on his passing prop is a great way to round out this SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi State vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis

Arkansas opened Saturday’s game as a seven-point favorite. That has come down slightly, with the consensus spread now sitting at 6.5 points. Some books have made Arkansas a slight favorite at that number, and you can find -105 on Mississippi State by shopping around.

The Bulldogs are just 1-5 against the spread this year, while the Razorbacks have put up a solid 4-3 ATS mark on the season.

The total for Saturday’s matchup opened at 50 points. There’s been downward pressure on that number, and the consensus Over/Under now sits around 48.5. Some books have even gone down to a flat 48, while others are offering the Over at -105 on 48.5.

Both teams have played above the number this year. The Over is 4-2 in Mississippi State’s games, while it has also gone 4-2-1 when Arkansas plays.

I’m surprised bettors have moved the total down on this game. The Bulldogs have consistently played over this number by a touchdown or more, and while Arkansas plays solid defense, they’re not exactly a shutdown unit, allowing 25.1 points per game.

Both teams can score, and I expect Arkansas in particular to find the endzone several times. I’m leaning towards the Over.

Mississippi State vs Arkansas betting trend to know

Mississippi State is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi State vs Arkansas.

Mississippi State vs Arkansas game info

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