Mississippi State vs LSU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tigers Start Conference Play Strong

The Mississippi State Bulldogs will head to Death Valley to take on the LSU Tigers in an SEC West battle this Saturday.

Mississippi State is 2-0 following comfortable wins over the Memphis Tigers and Arizona Wildcats. LSU blew out Southern University last weekend to bounce back from a season-opening loss to the Florida State Seminoles and even their record at 1-1. 

The Bulldogs and Tigers look set for an evenly-matched battle on Saturday. We’ll look at who has the edge in our college football picks and predictions for Mississippi State vs. LSU.

Mississippi State vs LSU best odds

Mississippi State vs LSU picks and predictions

Brian Kelly took over as the LSU football coach after the Tigers suffered through a disappointing 6-7 season last year. Kelly will coach in his first SEC game this Saturday and the expectations are high in Death Valley. While Kelly has recruited well for the future, LSU fans may start to lose patience if he starts his tenure by losing his first two competitive matchups.

LSU will get a big boost on Saturday when vaunted running back John Emery Jr. returns to the field. Emery missed all of 2021 and the first two games of this season due to academic issues. Now, the senior will look to live up to his promise and bolster a Tigers rushing attack that struggled to generate much on the ground against Florida State outside of quarterback Jayden Daniels. 

While the Tigers are averaging 184.5 yards per game on the ground, they inflated that number by rushing for 230 yards against Southern University. They’ll face a much tougher task against a Mississippi State defense that is holding opponents to just 84.5 yards on the ground. LSU will likely lean heavily on its run game to keep quarterback Will Rogers and the Mississippi State Air Raid offense off the field as much as possible.

The Bulldogs will be throwing the ball all day long, but they are also facing a step-up in competition against an LSU defense that has already forced six turnovers. Mississippi State coach Mike Leach loves taking chances, and while that means the Bulldogs score plenty of points, they can also be sloppy with the ball. 

Mississippi State has turned the ball over five times on the year, with Rogers throwing two interceptions. LSU expects to have cornerback Sevyn Banks in the lineup to help bolster a secondary that will look to add to that total. It’s unlikely they can shut down the Bulldog passing attack, but forcing a couple of turnovers could prove the difference in a tight game.

On paper, this game looks close to a coin flip, with fascinating matchups on both sides of the ball. With two similarly talented teams taking the field, I’m inclined to side with the home team that is getting a couple of key parts back in the lineup on Saturday. 

The Tigers won this matchup last year in Starkville, and home-field advantage is real in Death Valley. LSU should be able to defend its turf against a tough Mississippi State team. Rather than take the 2.5 points, I’m backing the Tigers on the moneyline for a little added value.

My best bet: LSU moneyline (+115 at DraftKings)

Mississippi State vs LSU betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

Mississippi State comes into Saturday’s game as a consensus 2.5-point favorite. A few sites have the line even lower at -2 and there has been a slight move towards LSU at some books over the past couple of days.

While LSU is still trying to find its identity under head coach Brian Kelly, one key piece is thriving early in the 2022 season. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has thrown for five touchdowns without an interception, and has run for 132 yards to lead the Tigers. 

The Arizona State transfer has already proved he can produce against tough competition as well, throwing for two touchdowns and running for 114 cards to nearly singlehandedly beat Florida State in LSU’s 24-23 loss to the Seminoles. LSU will rely on Daniels to key the offense on Saturday while holding onto the ball in an effort to control time of possession.

The kicking game could prove pivotal in what is shaping up to be a tight contest. Mississippi State has some concerns in this area, with Coastal Carolina transfer Massimo Biscardi missing two extra points against Arizona. However, fellow transfer Ben Raybon took over at that point and made five extra points and two short field goals. Leach has yet to say who will earn the kicking responsibilities against LSU.

Mississippi State has exceeded expectations early in the year, easily covering as double-digit favorites against both Memphis and Arizona. Meanwhile, LSU has gone 1-1 ATS, covering against Southern but losing as a favorite against Florida State.

Over/Under analysis

The total on this game opened at 53.5 points and has moved up slightly to 54 since then. That number might look a bit low considering the offensive weapons who line up for both of these teams, but there are other factors to consider before jumping on the Over.

While it’s still early in the season, both LSU and Mississippi State have been stout on defense in the early going. The Bulldogs are giving up just 20 points a game this year against solid competition, while the Tigers are allowing 20.5 points per game. LSU isn’t leaning on its performance against Southern for that stat, as they allowed just 24 points to Florida State on a neutral site.

Both defenses will face their toughest tests of the year on Saturday, however. Each team has averaged 44 points per game on offense. Should the game turn into a shootout, I have to give Mississippi State the advantage — it has proven it can score those points against more competent opposition — but Daniels and the LSU offense have the potential to keep up.

The Tigers don’t want to do that, however. All indications are that LSU will try to slow down the Bulldogs by keeping them off the field as much as possible. I believe that the Tigers can stop the scoring from getting completely out of control, but staying under the total seems like a stretch.

I’m taking the Over, banking on enough quick scores from the Bulldogs and short fields for LSU off Mississippi State turnovers to push this game into the 60s. 

Mississippi State vs LSU game info

• Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Mississippi State vs LSU key injuries

Find our latest College football injury reports.

Mississippi State vs LSU weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Mississippi State vs LSU betting trend to know

LSU is 19-3 SU in its last 22 meetings against Mississippi State. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi State vs. LSU.

Pages related to this topic