The Memphis Tigers are 2-0 to start the season but while they've averaged 633.5 yards per game, they are also allowing nearly 500 yards per contest defensively. Can Mississippi State be the first team to minimize that Tiger offense this season?
Either the Bulldogs or Tigers will leave Saturday’s game still undefeated. Through two weeks, Mississippi State has faced harder competition and is a slight college football betting favorite in its first road game of the season.
Can the Bulldogs finally slow down Memphis' offense and cover as road chalk? Find out in our Mississippi State vs. Memphis pick and predictions for Saturday, September 18.
Mississippi State vs Memphis odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Mississippi State opened as a 3-point favorite, with very little movement towards either side, although some books are offering a 3.5 number. The total opened at 63.5 and has since ticked up to 64, with some books offering 64.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Mississippi State vs Memphis picks
Picks made on 9/16/2021 at 4:52 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mississippi State vs Memphis game info
• Location: Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN
• Date: Saturday, September 18, 2021
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN 2
Mississippi State vs Memphis betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Mississippi State: Trip Wilson WR (Questionable).
Memphis: Grant Gunnell QB (Out), Kylan Watkins RB (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Memphis.
Mississippi State vs Memphis predictions
Mississippi State -3 (-110)
Mississippi State has some room for improvement offensively but the Bulldogs have looked very good on the defensive end through two games, defeating Louisiana Tech and NC State in back-to-back weeks at home to open the season — neither of which are cupcake FCS schools.
The Bulldogs struggled early in their home opener against Louisiana Tech, rallying for 21 points in the fourth quarter — while holding the (also) Bulldogs to just three points in the final frame — in a 35-34 win. That led to questions about Mississippi State, which might’ve been a bit of an overreaction as the Bulldogs came out and dominated NC State in a 24-10 Week 2 win, behind great quarterback play from Will Rogers and a special teams unit that has chipped in with some big-time kick returns.
Simply put, Mississippi State needs to be better at protecting Rogers. For coach Mike Leach, the running game is usually non-existent, so it’s important for Rogers to have time in the pocket to be able to move the ball down the field.
Defensively, the Bulldogs continue to show up in big-time spots. They held NC State to just 10 points, led by a stifling rush defense and terrific downfield coverage, but they will face their toughest test yet in Memphis.
The Tigers defeated Nicholls and Arkansas State in their first two games of the year. The pedigree of those wins doesn’t match up against Mississippi State’s victories, but Memphis is still 2-0 going into a home game against a Power 5 opponent.
Memphis has gained 633.5 yards per game this season, with Seth Henigan throwing for 682 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions while Brandon Thomas has run 34 times for 338 yards. However, like Mississippi State, Memphis' offensive line has been questionable — Henigan and Thomas have shined in spite of that unit, not because of it — and against SEC competition, that could be a real problem.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are coming off a game where they allowed Arkansas State to score 50 points. The tackling has been a major concern for this program to start the season and the pass rush really isn’t effective so far, with just two sacks on the season.
Memphis has legit playmakers but, at the end of the day, an SEC defense should be able to dominate at the line of scrimmage — and Memphis will struggle to develop big plays down the field because of it. Add in that the Tigers will struggle to pressure (and stop) Rogers and the Bulldogs offense, and we see the home team leaving Saturday disappointed.
Under 64 (-110)
The total in this game is 64 points and to be fair, that's a lot for a Mississippi State defense that has allowed just 22 points per game in its first two games of the season.
Memphis looks fierce on offense but that was against two mediocre teams in Nicholls State and Arkansas State. The Bulldogs faced Louisiana Tech and North Carolina State — and shut them down when it mattered the most.
Mississippi State should be able to shut down the Tigers' running game and get to the quarterback against Memphis' struggling pass protection, while Memphis will not be able to sustain its high-octane offense in Week 3.
Take the under in this matchup — you'll need a lot to happen to get to 65 points.
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