Mississippi State vs Texas Tech Liberty Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions: Leach's Bulldogs Feast

The middle matchup of a busy college football bowl game schedule for Tuesday sees the Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Liberty Bowl.

It’s the Mike Leach and Texas Tech reunion game. Leach will do battle with the Red Raiders, whom he coached from 2000-2009, in this SEC vs Big 12 showdown.

Texas Tech will be led by an interim staff headed by Sonny Cumbie, who went 1-3 as interim coach following the firing of Matt Wells. Cumbie will be leading the charge despite accepting a position as Louisiana Tech’s next head coach. 

Will Leach share a win over his former school, or will Cumbie get the Red Raiders another victory before heading for Louisiana Tech?

Check out our free college football betting picks and predictions for the Liberty Bowl between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Tuesday, December 28, to find out. 

Mississippi State vs Texas Tech odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Mississippi State opened -8 but has been bet up to -9 at the time of this writing. The total opened at 60 but has moved down to 59.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Mississippi State vs Texas Tech predictions

• Prediction: Mississippi State -9 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 59 (-110)
• Best bet: Mississippi State -9 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/20/2021 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mississippi State vs Texas Tech game info

• Location: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, TN
• Date: Tuesday, December 28, 2021
• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Mississippi State vs Texas Tech betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Mississippi State: Rara Thomas WR (Questionable), Malik Heath WR (Questionable), Christian Ford WR (Questionable), Brandon Ruiz K (Questionable), Charles Cross OL (Questionable).
Texas Tech: Tyler Shough QB (Questionable), Myles Price WR (Questionable), Travis Koontz TE (Questionable), Loic Fouonji WR (Questionable), Brandon Bouyer-Randle LB (Questionable), Chadarius Townsend RB (Out), Marquis Waters DB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Texas Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against the SEC. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech.

Mississippi State vs Texas Tech picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Simply put, we’re not confident in Texas Tech’s focus and motivation for this bowl game. Interim coach, Sonny Cumbie, will lead the way despite already being hired as Louisiana Tech's next head coach. He’s been involved with putting together a recruiting class for one school while also preparing for a bowl game with another. The rest of the staff is also working through the bowl game despite many of them having an uncertain future with the program.

Mississippi State has no such concern, and this is a good matchup on paper. Quarterback Will Rogers appears on nearly every passing leaderboard, completing 75% of his passes for 4,449 yards and 35 touchdowns. We know what this Air Raid offense wants to accomplish — throw, throw, and throw the ball some more. 

How does Texas Tech defend the pass? In a word, miserably. The Red Raiders rank 118th against the pass, allowing 265.6 yards per game. Will they at least be able to put some pressure on Rogers to make him uncomfortable in the pocket? Likely not, as they rank just 121st in the country in sack percentage. This defense does defend the run relatively well, but that doesn’t matter for much against the Air Raid.

The Bulldogs have found their groove in Year 2 under Mike Leach, finishing the season on a 5-1 against-the-spread run. The Red Raiders, meanwhile, have been miserable in bowl games with just a 2-8 ATS record in their last 10. They’ve also struggled against the SEC, going 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the conference.

Prediction: Mississippi State -9 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

We do expect Mississippi State to score with ease given Texas Tech’s inability to stop the pass. All eyes will be on Rogers and lead receiver Makai Polk, who finished with 98 receptions for 989 yards and nine scores. That being said, we’re still looking toward the Under in this spot as the total is fairly high and we aren’t confident in Tech’s ability to score against a good Bulldogs defense.

Mississippi State’s defense has been flying under the radar all season, but it’s a solid group. The Bulldogs allow only 3.4 yards per rush despite playing in the physical SEC, so they should limit Tech’s rushing attack. Multiple quarterbacks are expected to play for the Red Raiders, with Donovan Smith likely to see the bulk of the action. While Smith has shown flashes at points this season, he’s still the team’s third option at the position and has a tough matchup.

Prediction: Under 59 (-110)

Best bet

The Bulldogs have a talent advantage and are better on both sides of the ball. We’d recommend them as the side regardless of outside circumstances, but the interim staff for Tech leads us even more in the Bulldogs’ favor.

Things have finally started to click for Leach in Year 2 at Starkville, and we expect a comfortable win in the Liberty Bowl in a favorable matchup.

Pick: Mississippi State -9 (-110)

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