After a tough 30-24 loss to Alabama last week, the Mississippi Rebels go on the road to take on the unranked Arkansas Razorbacks.
The No. 14 Rebels are trying to avoid a third loss, which would jeopardize a 10-win season and a New Year’s Six Bowl game. Arkansas is just 5-5 overall and 2-4 inside the SEC but would like nothing more than to play spoiler this weekend.
Can the Rebels get back on track or will the Razorbacks cause an upset? Keep reading our college football picks and predictions below to find out.
Mississippi vs Arkansas best odds
Mississippi vs Arkansas picks and predictions
The Mississippi Rebels had a chance to give Alabama its third loss of the year but came up short in Week 10. Now, the Rebels must forget that bitter defeat and focus on Arkansas. If they don’t, the Razorbacks are more than capable of upending them.
It shouldn’t have to come to that, however. Head coach Lane Kiffin should have the Rebels ready to play and told reporters that the team has put that loss behind them. That, combined with their talent, should be more than enough to cover this slim spread.
This game could feature both teams’ potent rushing attacks. Temperatures in Fayetteville are expected to be below freezing at game time and the winds could get to more than 15 mph. Not ideal weather for slinging the ball around Razorback Stadium. Neither team might not have to — at least early.
The Rebels have the third-best rushing attack in the country, averaging 259.8 yards per game. They are led by freshman Quinshon Judkins, who has 1,171 yards on 205 carries, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
Judkins is the ninth-best rusher in the country and is also fifth in rushing touchdowns (15). He is also second with 14 runs of 20+ yards.
Along with junior Zach Evans, they've formed a deadly tandem in the backfield. Evans — who has dealt with injuries this season — has still rushed for 692 yards on 114 carries and seven touchdowns.
The third threat on the ground is quarterback Jaxson Dart, who has proven to be a very mobile QB. He has scrambled for 508 yards on 96 carries, often extending drives on third downs with his legs.
The trio presents a definite problem for Arkansas, who rank 65th in rushing defense, allowing an average of 147.2 yards a game.
Arkansas running back Raheim Sanders will have to have a big game for the Razorbacks to stay close. He is 11th in the country in rushing with 1,147 yards. He has had six games of 100+ rushing yards and the Razorbacks are 5-1 SU in those games.
Still, I think the Rebels will have too much talent on the ground for Arkansas to handle and should win this game by at least a touchdown.
My best bet: Mississippi -2.5 (-113 at BetRivers)
Looking to bet on some college football action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of College football promo codes for 2022.
Mississippi vs Arkansas spread analysis
The running game will likely be the focus of both teams but the passing game will certainly come into play. How much? Well, that depends on the weather on Saturday.
The Rebels are 76th in passing offense, averaging 225.9 yards per game. Arkansas has trouble defending the pass. They are 121st in the country, allowing an average of 280.5 yards per game.
Arkansas has the better passing offense (56th, 238.4 ypg) but the Rebels are better equipped to defend it (59th, 220.9 ypg allowed).
Mississippi converts third downs at a 51.1% clip, the ninth-best mark in the nation. Conversely, Arkansas has one of the worst third-down defenses — ranking 116th.
The Rebels are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games following a straight-up loss and are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games.
Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a winning road record.
Mississippi vs Arkansas Over/Under analysis
While the line didn’t move for this game, the total had a big jump. The total opened at 59.5 and has since risen to 64 points, thanks in part to these two offenses.
The Rebels are 19th in the country in scoring offense (36.1 pgg) and have had six games of 30+ points, including a 31-28 win over Texas A&M two weeks ago.
The Razorbacks average 29.9 points per contest, good for 57th in the nation. They've had five games of 30+ points, most recently on the road against Auburn two weeks ago.
With that said, I'm not sure the points will pile up in the cold weather. Even though these teams have potent offenses, I believe this will be more of a physical, grind-it-out game.
Both teams' rushing offense will be on display and that will keep the clock moving — I see a 28-21 type score at the most.
The trends lean towards the Under, with the Rebals 8-1 to the Under in their last nine games following an ATS win.
The Under is 4-1 in Arkansas' last five games in November and is also 4-1 in the last five meetings in Arkansas.
Mississippi vs Arkansas betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the two teams in Arkansas. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi vs. Arkansas.
Mississippi vs Arkansas game info
| Location: | Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR |
| Date: | Saturday, November 19, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
Mississippi vs Arkansas latest injuries
Mississippi vs Arkansas weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
