It's already a slim prospect, but if the LSU Tigers want any hope of making the College Football Playoff, they must win this game. After the Mississippi Rebels saw a disastrous loss to Kentucky two weekends ago, its playoff hopes were set nearly around a coin flip.
With that in mind, it's a similar scenario for the Rebels, even if they do have slightly more room for error. To no surprise, our Mississippi vs. LSU predictions expect offensive fireworks aplenty. Read why in the early college football picks ahead.
Mississippi vs LSU predictions
Early spread lean
Mississippi -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I don't think either of these teams deserves their Top-15 ranking, the Mississippi Rebels currently No. 9 and the LSU Tigers No. 13.
Neither has shown it, and there are flaws on both sides that stick out. Naturally, because of that, each team will have advantages you can envision leading them to a cover or even an outright win.
With that said, I'll lean towards the Rebels here. I made this spread -3, and it's listed at that number. While there's no actionable bet at the moment, I'm still on the side of the Rebels if forced to choose.
We correctly predicted Kentucky would pull off the stunner two weeks ago and there are reasons why. The Rebels had gone largely untested against putrid defenses, and the Kentucky defense was legitimately a Top-15 one that would produce a stern test. This spot is much different. Even on the road, even under the lights, the LSU defense is still not very good, and that's a problem.
The struggles on defense for the Tigers start early on, specifically on early downs, where they rank 120th in EPA allowed.
Given the typical excellent offensive scripting of Lane Kiffin, it should be no surprise that Mississippi is one of the best in the country on early downs from an EPA perspective, ranking fifth in the country. This is such an outsized advantage in a game like this that it would be enough to push me over the edge and lean the Rebels' direction, but it's one of a few.
When LSU lost the extremely talented linebacker Herold Perkins for the season, it also lost one of the most havoc-creating players. LSU didn't miss his presence the rest of the game in its win against UCLA. It certainly didn't miss him in the next game against South Alabama, but it will miss him here.
Kiffin's offense is best functioning well when its timing isn't disrupted, and it can give either passing lanes or rushing lanes for Jaxson Dart. Without Perkins, this becomes so much easier. It was already a team that needed to create more havoc anyway, ranking just about average in that metric during the season.
From a broad viewpoint, much about this matchup is clear. LSU and Mississippi will trade blows early, primarily as LSU feeds off the home environment. However, as the game drags, Kiffin's superior offense — which ranks in the Top 10 in explosiveness — will win out.
This is likely to turn into a shootout. If it does, the Rebels should take some solace in having the better offensive coach in Lane Kiffin over Brian Kelly and have the quarterback better prepared for that type of game because of Dart's experience.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 64.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This is a massive number, but I still think it's short. My projections are making this 67.5, a sizable edge, and this is a game that could very much finish with a combined total in the 70s.
The last time these two faced each other last year, that's precisely what happened. These teams combined for 104 points last year and 66 the game before. While past seasons' results mean less than they ever have in today's transfer portal era, it provides some context behind each coach's approach when approaching this game.
You'll likely see two highly aggressive mindsets from Kiffin and Kelly, knowing that settling for field goals won't likely be enough to win this game. In a broad sense, that's good for us and good for the Over.
We've talked about this Mississippi offense, why we don't see them being stopped much, and the injury from LSU that has made those problems even worse. Let's talk about the other side for the moment that's equally important to this total: the LSU offense against the Rebels' defense.
The Rebels have great defensive numbers from a statistical standpoint, but I have to wonder how much of that is schedule-induced rather than reality. The defense is good, but I don't think it's in the Top 10 like the EPA says it is.
The South Carolina result, in which it held the Gamecocks to three points, largely means nothing to me. The task against LSU, with an above-average quarterback and deep wide receiver talents like Kyren Lacy, couldn't be more different.
The Rebels have yet to face a good offense this season. No team on their schedule is close to the Top 25 by any statistical metric, but even so, Kentucky had some success with two speedy wideouts in Barion Brown and Dane Key.
That came with a mediocre QB in Brock Vandagriff at the helm. The LSU offense isn't first in EPA per play like Mississippi, but it does mostly everything well and ranks in the Top 20 in everything to reflect that. I see no reason why it won't do its part to contribute to this total going Over on Saturday night.
Mississippi vs LSU live odds
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