Mississippi vs Texas A&M Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rebels Run Game Wreaks Havoc

Two SEC teams coming off losses will look to rebound on Saturday as the No. 15 Mississippi Rebels visit the Texas A&M Aggies.

Mississippi dropped its first game of the season last week, losing 45-20 at the LSU Tigers. The Aggies have lost three straight, most recently 30-24 to the South Carolina Gamecocks.

Miss has the more impressive record, but the Rebels are only a slight college football odds favorite on the road over the Aggies. We’ll dive into who has the edge in this SEC West clash in our college football picks and predictions for Mississippi vs. Texas A&M on October 29.

Mississippi vs Texas A&M best odds

Mississippi vs Texas A&M picks and predictions

Up until halftime last week, Mississippi (7-1) looked like it might be the team to beat in the SEC West. But LSU outscored the Rebels 28-0 in the second half last Saturday, handing Mississippi its first loss. Mississippi, LSU, and the Alabama Crimson Tide now all have one loss in a three-way race for the divisional title. 

The Rebels will have their shot at Alabama in two weeks. First, Mississippi must deal with Texas A&M (3-4), a team that has played far better than its record suggests. 

The Aggies nearly beat the Crimson Tide in Alabama, losing 24-20 in a game that was tight throughout. Then last week, the South Carolina Gamecocks held off the Aggies 30-24 in another one-possession loss for Texas A&M.

Given how well the Aggies have played against top SEC competition, it’s understandable that sportsbooks have set a tight line on this game. However, the Rebels match up extremely well with this Texas A&M squad.

Mississippi has pounded away at opponents on the ground. The Rebels are averaging 252.1 yards per game on the ground, good for third-best in the nation. Meanwhile, the Aggies are allowing an average of 179.6 rushing yards, even as they boast one of the best pass defense units in the country. 

The Rebels have two productive running backs they can throw at the Aggies. Quinshon Judkins has run for 12 touchdowns and 831 yards on the season, while Zach Evans — who is not on the injury report after being limited in the loss to LSU — has seven touchdowns on the ground and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry.

Judkins and Evans are likely to run all over the Texas A&M defense. On the other side of the ball, it’s hard to see the Aggies being able to keep up with Mississippi. The Rebels are giving up just 20.8 points per game, while Texas A&M averages a paltry 21.9 points on offense.

The Aggies will get a boost by playing at home, and they’ve shown an ability to hang tough with superior competition. But this matchup isn’t favorable for Texas A&M, and Mississippi may well win this one by multiple scores. Let’s say the points with the Rebels on Saturday.

My best bet: Mississippi -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Mississippi vs Texas A&M spread analysis

Mississippi opened this game as a three-point favorite, though the consensus line has settled at around two points as of Thursday afternoon. As I noted in my best bet analysis above, you can get Mississippi -1.5 at some books without any added juice, and that’s my preference for how to bet this game.

Neither of these teams has been particularly strong against the spread this year. The Rebels are just 3-5 ATS, while Texas A&M has mirrored its straight-up record, going 3-4 ATS. 

The Aggies will be without starting quarterback Max Johnson, who has been out since breaking a bone in his hand in a Week 5 loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs. That has left the job in the hands of sophomore Haynes King, who has thrown six touchdowns and six interceptions over the course of five games. Texas A&M has gone only 1-4 in his appearances.  

King suffered a shoulder injury of his own last week, meaning true freshman Conner Weigman had to take the reins. Weigman went 8-for-15 for 91 yards in the loss to South Carolina. 

While King is expected to play Saturday, neither he nor Weigman are the kind of playmakers that should trouble the Mississippi defense. The injury issues at quarterback are yet another reason why I’m picking the Rebels to cover the spread against the Aggies.

Mississippi vs Texas A&M Over/Under analysis

There hasn’t been much movement on the total for this game, with books opening the contest at 54 and the consensus Over/Under now sitting at 54.5. 

While both Mississippi and Texas A&M have played strong defense throughout the year — both allow under 22 points per game — I still think the Over is the right play here. I’ve already broken down how the Mississippi rushing attack should be able to exploit a vulnerable Aggies defense that has wilted against the run this season.

I also think Texas A&M will score more points than oddsmakers expect. Mississippi has allowed 28, 34, and 45 points in its last three games, with even the Vanderbilt Commodores able to put up four touchdowns against the Rebels. The Aggies may not be explosive, but they’ve been scoring pretty consistently against solid defensive teams, putting up between 20 and 24 points in their four SEC contests. 

At home against a defense that has struggled over the past two weeks, Texas A&M should hit that range again, and might even be able to surpass it. However, the Aggies won’t be able to stop the Rebels running attack, which should put up points throughout the contest. 

The total definitely isn’t the best bet in this game, with 54.5 being a pretty fair number. Still, both teams have the potential to score 28 points or more on the opposing defense on Saturday, so my preference is for the Over.

Mississippi vs Texas A&M betting trend to know

Texas A&M is 1-5 straight up in its last six SEC conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi vs. Texas A&M.

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