The Alabama Crimson Tide are facing a must-win game on Saturday afternoon as they host the Missouri Tigers in a key SEC clash at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
The Tide should be able to get out of this game with a win, but it’s hard to see them covering as two-touchdown favorites, which I’ll discuss more in my Missouri vs. Alabama predictions below.
I’ll break down how bettors should be approaching the opening lines for this matchup in my early college football picks for Saturday, October 26.
Missouri vs Alabama predictions
Early spread lean
Missouri +14 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Kalen DeBoer era has gotten off to a rocky start, at least by the high standards of the Alabama Crimson Tide. After jumping out to a 4-0 start, Alabama has lost two of its last three, including a shocking 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt. While both of those losses came on the road, they sandwiched another surprising result — a 27-25 home win over South Carolina.
The Crimson Tide were favored in all three of these games and failed to cover each time. In two of those games, they were favored by 21+ points, including the matchup with Vanderbilt. Even since the first half of their win over Georgia, this hasn’t looked anything like a vintage Alabama team.
On the other side of this game, the Missouri Tigers have been one of the biggest surprises in the SEC. The Tigers suffered a bad road loss to Texas A&M earlier this month but otherwise remain untouched.
Perhaps close wins against the likes of Vanderbilt and Auburn are cause to doubt that Missouri is a legitimate playoff contender, but it remains a threat to anyone it plays — and may still be a factor in the SEC title race.
The key to this game will be how well Missouri’s defense can contain Jalen Milroe and the often explosive Alabama offense. Milroe is the epitome of a dual-threat quarterback, having run for 11 scores and thrown for 13 more, and there’s no denying the level of talent the Crimson Tide have at the skill positions.
However, we’ve seen both South Carolina and Tennessee hold Alabama to 27 or fewer points in the past two weeks. And the Tigers have a defense as good as anything Alabama has faced this year, holding opponents to just 15.6 points and 273 yards per game. Only one team — Texas A&M — has scored more than 27 points against the Tigers this year.
Milroe presents a special challenge for any defense, but Missouri should be up to the challenge — at least enough to prevent this game from getting out of control.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 56.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Even if it hasn't faced many of the SEC's best offenses yet, Missouri's defense is legit and rates out well compared to the competition, with ESPN’s SP+ rankings seeing it as the No. 16 defense in the nation.
It’s worth noting Alabama rates nearly as well, with ESPN placing its defensive unit at 19th in the country. The Tide are allowing just 4.8 yards per play this season, and having already played games against both Georgia and Tennessee; we can regard that as a legitimate number that reflects how the unit will perform against a good offense.
That’s about what Missouri brings to the table. The Tigers primarily attack on the ground, with Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll leading a deep crop of running options that have scored 17 times on the ground this season. That could be a challenging route to take against Alabama, which is allowing just 3.6 yards per rush on the season.
The early total on this game sits at 56.5. Missouri has played just one game Over that total this season, with their win over Vanderbilt coming in at 57 points. Alabama has played in some higher-scoring affairs but has come in Under the 56.5 total in three of its last five games — including when its offense has struggled somewhat against both South Carolina and Tennessee.
Given the strong defenses on both sides of this matchup, it’s hard for me to imagine either side blowing through their total tendencies on Saturday.
Missouri vs Alabama live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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