Missouri vs Alabama Player Props & Best Bets: Christmas for Carroll

Prop bet #1: Marcus Carroll anytime TD

+145 at BetMGM

Nate Noel is expected to be out for the Missouri Tigers, and his 5.9 yards per carry are a big loss for the team. But when it comes to scoring touchdowns, he’s not been very impactful with just two on the season.

The beneficiary of Noel — and quarterback Brady Cook — being absent is Marcus Carroll. While he’s the backup on the depth chart, he’s had just 19 fewer carries than Noel this season and leads the team with six rushing touchdowns, two more than Cook.

Carroll should see a higher volume of carries as Missouri tries to help Drew Pyne, and he will find some success against the Alabama Crimson Tide. 

Alabama ranks middle-of-the-road against the run in conference play and are allowing nearly two rushing scores per contest. Alabama’s not creating havoc either, which will help the Missouri line open some space as the Tigers average 3.2 line yards per rush.

Once Mizzou gets into the redzone, it’ll be time for Carroll to shine. Alabama has allowed SEC opponents to score touchdowns on 73.3% of trips inside the 20-yard line, the third-highest mark in the conference, with 11 touchdowns in four games. And last week, Dylan Sampson scored on a pair of runs from inside the five-yard line.

Carroll has found the end zone in three of his last four games. His increased workload here means his price of +145 presents terrific value. 

Prop bet #2: Jam Miller Over 46.5 rushing yards

-115 at BetMGM

Missouri’s run defense had been solid this season, but there have been some cracks exposed since entering SEC play. Only five teams in the conference have allowed more runs of 10+ yards against SEC opponents than their 18 so far — and all of those teams have played at least one more game. 

Missouri has also given up three runs of at least 30 yards, tied for the most in the conference. Four different Auburn players popped double-digit runs a week ago.

Vanderbilt running back Sedrick Alexander and quarterback Diego Pavia both went for over 50 rushing yards, and it’s a similar dual-threat backfield to what Alabama presents. Jalen Milroe may not be racking up big yardage totals, but he’s always a threat that Missouri will have to account for.

That’s one of the reasons I expect Jam Miller to have at least 50 rushing yards. Alabama is going to need to slow down a Missouri pass rush that ranks 21st nationally in sack rate, and Miller has seen an increase in workload over the last two games. He had identical stat lines against Tennessee and South Carolina, with 12 carries for 42 yards vs. both teams.

He showed against Vanderbilt that he can explode when given space, with a 32-yard run as he gained 45 yards and a pair of touchdowns on just five carries. With Milroe struggling last week, I expect Alabama to help him out by establishing the run game and letting him work off it.

The Tigers have only 19 TFL in three SEC games, and they’re giving up 4.60 yards per rush against conference opponents — the third-most ahead of only Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Miller should get close to 15 carries and will find a couple big runs to push him Over his number. 

Prop bet #3: Luther Burden Over 56.5 receiving yards

-115 at BetMGM

While Missouri may not have Brady Cook on Saturday, it doesn’t mean the Tigers won’t be able to throw the football. And when they do, Luther Burden III will be the man targeted.

Burden is going to be playing on Sundays next season and will probably hear his name called in the first night of the draft, and there’s yet to be a defense that has found a way to prevent him from getting the football. His total for this game is set at 56.5 yards, a number he’s failed to reach just once in his last five games — last week against Auburn. 

But a big part of that was the struggles of Cook, who was playing with an injured ankle and simply couldn’t put much on his throws. Burden’s depth of target was 12.0 yards against Auburn, after two games where he was getting targeted much closer to the line of scrimmage. 

Against Texas A&M’s outstanding defense, he had an ADOT of 8.4 yards and caught seven of eight targets for 82 yards, with only 20 of those coming after the catch. And he’ll be facing an Alabama secondary that is quite banged-up and will be without starting safety Kalen Sabb.

Missouri’s receiving corps is too good for Alabama to key fully on Burden, and this Tide secondary has already allowed seven different SEC receivers to post 57+ yards through four games. Add in the fact the Tide have given up the fourth-most 10+ pass plays in SEC play and the second-most tosses of 30+ yards, and I’ll take him to get past his total regardless of the quarterback.