The Missouri Tigers hope to remain unbeaten as they head to Kyle Field for a Top-25 matchup with the Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday.
The Aggies are coming off a hard-fought win over rival Arkansas, their fourth straight win after losing to Notre Dame in the opener. They’ll welcome a Missouri team that's hitting the road for the first time this season and is well-rested after a double-overtime win over Vanderbilt.
I break down their chances in our Missouri vs. Texas predictions and early college football picks below.
Missouri vs Texas A&M predictions
Early spread lean
Missouri +2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Texas A&M Aggies won a slugfest with Arkansas to end its 15-year run of playing its rival at Jerry World, but that game could very well impact this one. The Missouri Tigers come in with a week of rest, one of the factors that has me taking them with the points.
The Aggies have yet to face a great defense this season, with the Hogs probably being the best one yet. And despite that, their offensive output has been only slightly above-average. They’ve absolutely missed Conner Weigman — who could possibly return for the first time since the opening game.
However, the Aggies have benefited from turnovers and beneficial field position, two things they likely won’t get on Saturday. A&M ranks 16th in starting field position and yet just 60th in net EPA/drive. The Tigers rank 13th in that metric defensively and rank fourth in available yards allowed per play.
Missouri also has been elite defensively. While Vanderbilt found success, the Tigers allowed only two touchdowns in regulation and missed three field goals of their own. One of those scores came from a 65-yard touchdown pass.
Arkansas tore apart the Texas A&M pass defense at times this past weekend, but three turnovers doomed the Hogs. One of those was a fumble that set the Aggies up at the 10-yard line for an easy touchdown, key for an offense that punted on nine of its 12 drives that didn’t result in the clock hitting triple zeros.
They won’t get those gifts here. Missouri ranks fifth in turnovers per game and 14th in interception rate when passing the ball. The Tigers will take advantage of an A&M defense ranked 90th in EPA/pass defensively, and unlike Arkansas, they’ll turn those drives into points. I’ll likely be backing Mizzou to win outright.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While Missouri has moved the ball well through the air this season, it’s not posting the big plays from a season ago. The Tigers rank near the bottom of college football in explosive pass plays, but they’re still finding success ranking 40th in EPA/pass.
Missouri is running the ball very well, and the Aggies will be forced to slow down the ground game as they did against Arkansas. Texas A&M ranks 36th defensively in EPA/rush, but opponents are finding success at 3.9 yards per carry. Missouri will put up some points, but it’ll likely require sustained drives rather than huge chunk plays.
Combine that with the issues for the Aggies offensively, and you’ve got a strong lean toward the Under. Texas A&M hasn’t gotten the best passing production from Marcel Reed. While there’s a possibility that Conner Weigman could be back for the first time since the opener, it may not help an offense that was only able to put together one real sustained drive last week.
Missouri has one of the best pass defenses in college football. Opponents have the fifth-lowest completion percentage, and the Tigers have a sack rate in the top third of the country. They’ve been even better against the run, holding opponents to 3.3 yards per carry as they rank 16th in defensive success.
There’s no one area where the Aggies excel offensively, which is why they’ve scored just 47 points in the last two games against Bowling Green and Arkansas. Neither of those games went past 48 points — and neither will this one.
Missouri vs Texas A&M live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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